Several experiments have shown that, when predicting the behaviour of stocks and flows, many subjects rely on the erroneous correlation heuristic. They seem to assume that the output of a system should look the same as the input. Based on similar experiments with kinematics graphs we hypothesize that spatial ability explains variance on tasks involving accumulation. We propose that spatial ability might also generate other important differences between people, such as their ability to infer behaviour from diagrams. We tested participants on two dimensions of spatial ability: visualization and spatial orientation. In an experiment we found that the visualization dimension has a positive effect on performance in various systems thinking inventory tasks and a negative effect on the likelihood that the participant selects a response typical for correlation heuristic reasoning. The positive relation to performance was also present for tasks in which stock behaviour had to be inferred from text and diagrams. Furthermore, we found that people are not persistent in their use of the correlation heuristic between different types of tasks. Males and females did not differ in their spatial ability, but, males did perform better on almost all stock and flow tasks.
This paper introduces the industrial transformation model applied to the carmaker industry. We analyze the interaction between supply and demand as well as policy regulations supporting the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies. It allows to assess prospectively threats and opportunities of induced technology changes for industries. The simulation exercise provides evidence that smart governance approaches involving concerted entrepreneurial and political decision making can avert severe industrial crisis of adjustment during phases of socio-technical transitions. The overall cycle pattern seems to play out over a time period of 50 years. It is strongly influenced by the climate policy regime and the innovation investment behavior of firms. It results in a sectoral boom phase once the transition towards near zero emission vehicles has been mastered. The policy induced technology change pattern is comparable to the long wave theory in terms of its duration and the argument, that deep structural causes are innovation processes in whole technological systems. Moreover, we have identified the drivers of single short term cash cycles. Differences between cash inflow and outflow over time that are triggered by strategy and policy changes explain short term fluctuations.
Over the past few decades, many studies of corruption have been carried out. These studies have mainly focussed on specific characteristics such as: economic issues, legal issues, social propositions, impact on national development, and in relation to economic policy. The rationale of this research is to build initial system dynamics models of corruption, so that these models can extend our understanding of corruption and act as an input to future policy making on corruption. System dynamics modelling allows researchers to discover hidden dynamics. Moreover, system dynamics enables the analyst an increased level of flexibility, as system dynamics modelling uses both theoretical understanding, as well as empirical data collection. Indeed, as a result of this study, we can offer an explanation that uncovers the underlying factors that address the dynamics of corruption, social, economic, political, judicial and cultural factors in case of any developing country, which can be applied with some modifications for developed world. In this we try to determine problem of corruption in societies by incorporating very complex and different social, cultural and even religious aspects that were mostly untouched in system dynamics studies in past. Systems dynamics model of corruption developed in this study would be of use to policy makers and non-governmental organisations in understanding the complex nature of corruption.
Accounting Dynamics (AD) is a methodology of accounting as social science. We studied Accounting Dynamics from 1982 to 1994. We first proposed the concept of Accounting Dynamics on International System Dynamics Conference in 1987 . We interrupted the study for a long time, because there were some difficulties to develop the real Accounting Dynamics models. The concept is still reasonable and so attractive that we have reviewed Accounting Dynamics again. This is first step to restart the project and show you Accounting Dynamics in order to organize the SIG. This paper shows what is "Accounting Dynamics" clearly.
There are many studies exploring the reasons behind failures in solving generic system dynamics (SD) problems such as stock- flow (SF) failure. Although they reach some limited associations, they do not find any significant cognition related factor explaining the variation in failures except the positive impact of visual saliency of the problem displays. In present study we put forward the question Does cognitive problem solving capability improve progressively? So, we prepare a performance sheet including two parts. First part consists of simpler SF problems and second part contains more complex ones. Then we ask these questions to motivated undergraduate industrial engineering students. Sample of participants consists of two groups. First group is SD educated and second group is not SD educated. We see that while some individuals are performing well in solving more complex SD problems, others are performing well in simpler ones, and ability to solve more complex problems is not dependent on performance in solving simpler ones. But we find associations between capabilities of solving two different more complex SF problems each other. We also see that SD education increases the capability of solving more complex SF problems but does not affect the capability of solving simpler SF problems.
Inter-firm trust is an essential element in supplier relationship that shapes the collaboration and coordination between suppliers and buyers. In this paper, we use system dynamics as an approach and perspective to analyze the evolutionary process of supply chain collaboration. Use a valve manufacturing firm as an illustrative case, this paper illustrates how a buyer firm in a networked supply chain unexpectedly harmed the inter-firm trust between the buyer and its suppliers that further resulted in the collapse of the relationships among them. Based on the quantitative system dynamics model developed, this paper argues and shows that supply chain relationships may be more complex than the consideration of transaction costs. Path dependency of the make or buy decision may exist and drive a supply chain to evolve over time. Buyers and suppliers rational decisions to reduce their own risks and to optimize efficiency may not only interfere with the benefits of the other side but also entrap a long existed supply chain to collapse. From the economic perspective, how to balance the time required for capacity expansion and the time for suppliers to develop new customers is of the essence in such a vulnerable supply chain setting.