The unconscious application of sophisticated tools, and in particular the popular reverence to data as the source of knowledge, seems to be the rule in many scientific activities in which the application of tools replaces thinking and data analysis replaces understanding. In this respect, system dynamics has much to offer, though sometimes it is tricky to appreciate its full value and scope. One of its trademarks is known as operational thinking. This paper underlines that operational thinking drives a distinct epistemic posture. This posture, unlike traditional scientific practice that seeks to explain the world by means of data analysis, intends to understand the world in terms of its operations. In this paper I explore the significance of such a posture for the domain of human systems, I highlight its epistemic value in particular with respect to the prevalent observational approach to science, the Humean problem of induction and determinism. Operational thinking means to recognize that human systems do not obey laws to be discovered by observation and data analysis, instead, it acknowledges agency, that is, the fact that a social system is the result of the consequences of actions taken by free decision-makers
The paper introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model for monetary policy feedback between the real interest rate, inflation and GDP growth for the 2004 to 2011 period in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes considers gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation as well as monetary policy sluggishness. The results outline a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains strongly exposed to exogenous economic conditions. Furthermore, stocks of absolute monetary policy flows provide a new mean for assessing empirical monetary policy moves. The stocks show that Brazilian monetary policy has been more driven by growth than by inflation considerations in the period under investigation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the potential effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider a recession avoidance Taylor rule. In total, the strong historical fit of the Taylor rule model calls for an application of the model to other economies.
This research is to provide a methodology for making policy scenarios based on the system dynamics. The authors deem this new methodology would be a useful tool for policymakers to make policy scenarios. As for the case study, this research deals with the policy scenarios for managing polioviruses in Japan as an example. This methodology includes both the simulation part of using System Dynamics and the conversation part related to Scenario Planning. Through using this methodology, we had structural understanding of the problem with the visible simulation results and conversation with member which was focusing on the parameters that would be a part of suggested scenarios. This methodology is expected to improve the public deliberations for making policy scenario based on data.
It is known that the presence of a supply line delay may lead to unwanted oscillatory stock behavior. It is also well known that fully considering the supply line in the ordering decisions, which means using the same adjustment time for stock adjustment and supply line adjustment terms, prevents unwanted oscillations. The effect of using the same or different adjustment times is relative. Therefore, in the literature, it is suggested that a weight coefficient should be used instead of explicitly using two separate adjustment times. This weight is simply equal to stock adjustment time divided by supply line adjustment time and it is named as weight of supply line. In this paper, we defined one more decision parameter that we call relative aggressiveness, which is equal to acquisition delay time divided by stock adjustment time. The existence or non-existence of stable or unstable oscillations is a function of the order of the supply line delay structure, weight of supply line, and relative aggressiveness. Usually, acquisition delay time and order of the supply line delay structure are not decision parameters; weight of supply line and stock adjustment time are. In this paper, we aim to give more insight to the readers about the selection of these two important parameters.
Understanding historical overshoots is vital for policy-making, not least when assessing potentials for future global overshoots. For this purpose a simple, unifying theory of overshoots is described and discussed for a variety of observed overshoots. For undesired and avoidable overshoots, misperception at some level must be a major cause. Laboratory experiments support this hypothesis and point to dynamics as the main complicating factor. The theory suggests that misperceptions may cause global overshoots both because of climate change and scarcity of cheap fossil energy. New generations of simulation models are needed to study overshoots, test policies for sustainable development, and to aid information dissemination.
The study presents a System Dynamic model of the Nigeria electric power system. The model was developed with a view to using it to evaluate the long-term performance of the system. Both primary and secondary sources were employed to collect the systems baseline information. Results from this formed input to develop a four-sector-model in Vensim software for the long-term evaluation of the NEPS. Leverage points in the model were identified from the validated model using data from 2005 to 2009 in the Base Run. The system behaviour, based on two other scenarios (Scenario 1 representing improved basic level of consumption and Scenario 2 representing industrialization target), was then evaluated on a timeframe of 50 years starting from 2009. The study concluded that Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Economic Growth Rate (EGR) were the most critical policy leverage intervention points for NEPS improvement within the next 50 years.
The paper explores the relevance and use of games for speeding up the energy transition in the Dutch built environment. Since the transition of the Dutch energy system with the current policies is much slower than required given the urgency of the foreseeable problems and the substantive system delays. There seems to be a need for experimentation with innovative policy instruments, governance mechanisms, and systemic conditions. This paper includes applied emphases upon two topics as well as illustrations of the usefulness of games as tools for getting a grip on the energy transition. In this context, a conceptual model has been developed to illustrate the possible causes of the aforementioned slow transition in the built environment. Furthermore, we discuss the potential roles of games for managing the transition in the built environment and illustrate with an interactive experimental game developed for hypothesis testing and learning purposes. Finally, based on the results of the game we explore the possibilities for future research.
We discussed a management of Airline-Airport coexistence for a sustainable air transport system. Governments provide various financial supports for unprofitable regional airways when the airways are essential for local life and economy but providing inefficient subsidies are often criticized worldwide. This paper aims to examine the validity of Load Factor Guarantee (LFG) scheme in which an airline and an airport mutually agree with the load factor of a flight and the airport would compensate for the discrepancy between the actual and the agreed load factor. We analyzed the LFG management using the data of Noto Airport and All Nippon Airways (ANA) from 2005 to 2011. Examining several scenarios with System Dynamics, we found that LFG would be effective to maintain regional airways when combined with appropriate level of subsidy. The results illustrated that only having annual negotiation on a target load factor cannot balance the benefits between an airline and an airport and thus does not sustain the mutualism. Integral management of LFG and monthly demand adjustment is the key to success for the airline-airport coexistence. The SD model can be applicable to airways worldwide and contribute to better design and management of a regional air transport system.
An introduction of the participatory element into the existing policy making scheme challenges the whole policy making practice, since unmanageable stakes have a risk to mask the proper distribution of interests and hide needs wider of the society . The particular interest of this research is to describe participatory modeling procedures and construct the model by means of system dynamics that capacitate an input of policy stakeholders via a rational balance of interest expression in policy making and policy administration streams. The primary intention is to use these modeling techniques for the description of participatory procedures and apply them to governance of wider public policy issues. The model primarily is targeted to introduce such mechanisms to the policy making process that enable control of the completeness of the stake representation and to balance the stake representation. Equally the model has to protect policy makers from narrow interest advocacy against the public interest.