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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Almost 35 years have passed since J. W. Forester published his paper “Industrial Dynamics” in 1958, which was the first paper in this field and which later became “system dynamics”. While many books and articles in the field raised its methodology, most of them have described models and discussed applications of system dynamics to specific areas. As a result, evaluation of system dynamics has been obscured by inconclusive debate about particular models. The efforts of many practitioners are leading system dynamics to a better understanding and more comprehensive presentation. But, its methodology needs further development and codification for revealing general characteristics of complex systems. Particularly, stronger links are necessary to the control theory and to enhance the system’s mathematics.This paper constructs a mathematical theory for thoroughly and precisely analyzing such general models as produced by system dynamics. First, we formulated mathematically, as the axioms of system dynamics, all principles of systems from which “general” characteristics of complex systems are generated. Secondly, we attempt to adequately express the essential mathematics of system dynamics, based on the axioms mentioned above. That is, we investigated the structural stability and the discontinuity of dynamic behavior of complex systems using the concepts in the Catastrophe Theory. And we mathematically explained some important results described in past articles of system dynamics such as the characteristics of complex systems initiated by Forester. Furthermore, we describe a new theoretical method to elucidate structural characteristics in SD models using concepts of Combinational Topology.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- In this paper, we propose a system dynamics model to deal with the main factors which influence critically the education and training of computer personnel in African developing countries (ADC). In the model, the needs of industry for skilled computer personnel are determined. According to these needs the required education infrastructure and facilities are provided and the appropriate number of students and professors are planned and educated. Factors like standard of living of the population and resources allocated by the organizations for worker training are taken into account in the model because of the importance of their influence on the results of the education and training system. The model will allow the managers of IT field to design and select the more appropriate policies to match the education and training requirement of the computer personnel in the country.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- The magnitude and complexity of urban problems developing countries general and India in particular have not received the attention they deserve from policy makers especialy in the context of the vital role of Essential Environmental Facilities in promoting Socio-economic and political development of the country. The basic need for Essential Environment Facilities in adequate quantity and quality is the driving force behind much of the economic activity which is vital for sustained urban development. Creation and maintenance of Essential Environmental Facilities have traditionally been considered to ensure health and safety to the urban dwellers. In recent years, the delivery system of such facilities has seen greater set back. Increasing population both natural and social has been a major cause for concern. Obsolete taxing system, poor returns from the investments already made and large scale investment on unproductive social welfare and public protection schemes coupled with improper devolution of financialpowers between governments at various levels have aggravated the problems. Lack of drive towards identification of new source of finance and ineffective urban management system have added to the severity of the problems. Past efforts directed towards ameliorating the urban sickness directed towards ameliorating the urban sickness has not yielded the desired results as they were limited in scope and piecemeal in nature with adhoc financial support. The acute shortage in all segments of the Essential Environment Facilities sector is giving rise to social tension, impeding economic development to the extent of increasing urban poverty and decay. Reversing the trend with a positive direction towards enhancing the quantity and quality of the facilities stock becomes imperative. This calls for long and short term programmes deviced to ensure adequate reach to the different cross section of the population. Operational efficiency and effectiveness for optimum returns should be the prime concern of the programmes. To state the obvious, it is not an easy task to achieve all of them within a short period given the socio-economic and political fabric of the cities. In this paper a small attempt has been made to bring out the major problems arising out of the process of urbanisation and the impact on the economic activity, the Essential Environment Facilities which include the ’Basic Services’, 'Complimentary Services' and 'Special Urban Services' and the kind of Urban development programmes relating to Indian conditions. This methodology is intended to serve as an approach for the much needed research work using the principles of system dynamics particularly for developing countries.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- In this paper the problem of low efficiency of primary education in Latin America is described in a Stella model. With this model several policy experiments are conducted, the results of which emphasize the need for a careful consideration of the alternative policy options. Problems of the translation of the conceptualization into the Stella model are resolved only in part. Further lines of development of the model are suggested.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Based on the participation in the research and design of the economic structure -- emulation model of Urumqi City , this paper was written. Regarding the general problems we met in the research and design and also focuing on the threes phrases; Economic theory, System dynamic Method and Application results in practice. this paper discussed the idea and principle. Method and system about the design process of the model was also presented in this paper.The author thinks that the design of economic structure emulation model should follow six main thoughts and principles. Its model system should include six main parameter mode designs. And the close combination of economic theory and system dynamic method with the application result in practice should be taken as first consideration. The ability of using Dynamic method to solve the economic structure problems can therefore be enhanced.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- This paper explains an effort to approach system dynamics as a tool for designing a curriculum and integrating experimental learning in a course titled Geography of Settlements. The course is offered for undergraduate students in the field of Social Sciences at Kasetsart University . Its contents deal with change over time and space and integration of physical and social contexts of change. The lectures incorporate experimentation in computer-based learning for understanding theories and information relationships existing in the spatial organization, settlement problems and developments. After students have learned system dynamics concepts and feedback system, they are asked to formulate the causal loops and simple models of settlement growth and urbanization with policies for environmental control, before coming up physical planning and designing a town or a city. The responses of students in class and groups discussion as well as exercise outputs are examined and compared to the control group of students who have no experience with this approach.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- At present, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and System Dynamics (SD) can still be considered as scientific tools in the developing stage which are gaining popularity because of their utility in their own separate fields. GIS deals with the data, their position in a coordinate system , their attributes, and their spatial interrelation with each other, while System Dynamics is used to understand problems which are dynamic (involve quantities which change over time), and also involves the notion feedback.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Global climate change has emerged as a major policy issue in industrialized as well as developing countries. The increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and CFCs are believed to be the primary cause of Man’s contribution to climate change. This trend would have to be slowed down and subsequently reversed, if the earth's climate is to remain relatively stable.System dynamics can be used to calculate future emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the use of fossil fuels and to examine the effects of introducing new energy technologies on such emissions. In this paper, we illustrate this approach by estimating the future emissions of CO2 from energy use in the transportation sectors in India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand . The sensitivity of such emissions to improvements in automobile efficiency, and to the relative use of public and private transportation is examined.The approach discussed in the paper can be easily extended to other energy use sectors, such as electricity generation, or industrial uses. Studies of this type can provide valuable input to policy- makers for optimizing the allocation of scarce resources to meet the challenge of global climate change.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- For about 20 years I have taught System Dynamics modelling at a seminar cource., faculty of commerce, Meiji University , Tokyo. About 6-10 sophomore students used to be divided into 2 groups and each groups and each chose an optimal company or an urban city, for which students tried to formulate a System Dynamics simulation model, and its results were seen every year in a magazine published in Japanese by the faculty of commerce, Meiji University . There were about 30 papers of students, for such companies as super-market, watch, drugs, newspaper, transportation, brewery, bank, gas, restaurant, tobacco, airline and so on, or for a suburban city near Tokyo. Students gathered historical data, had interviews with objective cooperations, formulated models, for which they analysed feedback loops and simulation results. They did all by themselves. These systems thinking studies were of very much value for students. I will explain a few examples from my student’s works and some other Japanese research case studies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Technology is nowadays considered as an important strategic variable for development. The growth of the developed economies is said to be due to productivity enhancement which is largely attributed to technological innovation. Thus the need emerges for a fuller understanding of the contribution of technology. For improved decision making a new set of technological data will have to be made available and a reorientation of traditional thought will have to be fostered.In the economic production context, technology is simply a means for achieving transformation of available inputs (natural resources and semifinished goods) into desirable outputs (consumer, semifinished and capital goods). To gain a better insight into the role of technology in economic development, it is necessary to view technology as a comprising of four embodied forms (object-embodied physical facilities; person-embodied human abilities; record-embodied documented facts; and institution-embodied management techniques) which interact dynamically at any production system.A framework for measuring the contribution of the four embodiment forms of technology in a production system is presented in this paper. The procedure requires an assessment of the status and interrelationships of the individual components of technology being utilized by a firm vis-a-vis the best practice elsewhere and then to determine the overall “technology contribution coefficient” (TCC) of the transformation operation. The paper suggests the use of the TCC measure for assessing the technological capability of a production system. A careful analysis of the interaction among the four components of technology in relation to the market and policy environment may lead to a better understanding of the technological behaviour of firm with significant policy implications. For such an analysis, the “system dynamics” approach is considered to be suitable because of its ability to deal with complex, interesting and dynamic behaviour of the variables.