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-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- This paper addresses the widespread belief that today’s public schools are not preparing our youth to conquer the problems of tomorrow. Although there is consensus within both academia and business that the need for reform is urgent, there is no generally accepted strategy for achieving improvement, nor is money to finance the job readily available. Creative ideas by great teachers are certainly the nucleus for reform, and, contrary to common opinion, there are many good ideas, and many great teachers.But teachers are not the only players. All schools are dynamic systems of great complexity. Unfortunately, many essential features of school-system structures are poorly understood. As a result, well intended attempts at reform since World War II have often merely tweaked the system rather than implanting permanent improvement. Most proposals have focused on more math, more science, longer school days or more homework, without understanding why there is such small yield from what already exists in the schools. This author believes that only by a major restructuring of the relations between student and teacher, by the adoption of a new paradigm for the teaching-learning process, and by the introduction of much modern technology into the classroom, will our schools fulfill the demands that the future will make on students.The restructuring program, described herein has been carried out in the Orange Grove Middle School in the Catalina Foothills School Districts (CFSD), Tucson, Arizona.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Recently a System Dynamic simulation model of supply and demand of the dental health care system in The Netherlands has been developed. This model includes major demographical, pathological, psychological, sociological and economical processes comprising the demand side. The supply side covers the availability of dentists, dental hygienists and factors which determine their productivity.The main purpose of the model is to create an instrument for analyzing the Dutch dental health care system. A relatively simple model with e.g. 20 state variables just describing the main concepts of this system was not considered to be sufficient. Therefore, starting from a simple model, during the past decade a far more complex model has been developed. It contains for instance 440 state variables. This model has already proven to be very satisfactory with regard to its descriptive qualities. However, the necessity for working with complex models also has negative side-effects. Apart from the great effects needed constructing, validating and analyzing the model, it is well known that the more complex the model, the more difficult to communicate about its results and properties, with people for whom the model might be useful. This is even more so if it concerns people from outside the academic world (in this case for instance the dental profession or policy makers).In this paper attention will be focused firstly on a short introduction concerning the model and its structure. Secondly, our experiences with the model will be used as an example of our ideas about how to construct sophisticated models with a high descriptive quality, while at the same time making them at least acceptable for those who might use its results, but were not directly involve in the construction of it.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Excellence of organizations over time requires high performance on the job by ever broader groups of employees. As technology evolves and population’s education improves typical employees are required less and less frequently to perform mechanical tasks or even to make limited repetitive decisions. The trend is for humans to carry out jobs with an ever greater context of complex analysis, creativity or non programmable decisions or human interactions. These activities can be performed on a consistent level of excellence only by well directed and highly motivated people.A schematic model is proposed that generalizes observations and actual experience on how management may ensure that the essential conditions for outstanding job performance by all individuals within an organization be realized consistently over time.Outstanding job performance over time occurs when: an adequate match between job requirements and individual skills and attitudes exists, a strong motivation is felt by all individuals, the social climate is favorable to excellent job performance and adequate equipment to do the job is available. These conditions are the result of complex dynamic interactions by viewing them as an integrated system.Employees’ motivation, development, growth in responsibilities and mutual trust between employees and management are a key portion of the model. Substantial attention is given to interactive shaping of realistic expectations regarding job conditions, self realization and compensation, both material and psychological.The management most likely to achieve excellence appears to be the one that sees its role as that of generating wealth, providing wellbeing for employees and distributing wealth fairly between shareholders and employees.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- A new Fernbank Museum of National History, to be located in Atlanta, is in the planning stage. A major series of exhibits is entitled “A Walk Through Time.” The walk culminates in exhibits which address the future. The museum planners wish to introduce the museum audience to computer modeling as an increasingly powerful tool with which to address societal problems. One exhibit is to present an exemplary computer model whose role is primarily tutorial. The model will treat limited facets of an urban system. The exhibit will present the model at two, or perhaps three, tiers of sophistication. The simplest presentation will utilize stored computer output in order to demonstrate model structure, interactions within the system, and some behavior patterns. Another presentation, also utilizing stored computer output, will allow audience participation in a restricted choice of model parameters. There may be a third exhibit tier in which less restricted parameter changes can be made in an interactive model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- The normative view of rationality has been used for many years as the principal framework from which to analyze performance outcomes. Analyses of managerial behavior from this essentially reductionist view contain the argument that decision makers often fail to “correctly” observe and act upon the situations they face. A growing number of behavioral decision theorists, however, argue that the conclusions about behavior which have been derived from the normative view are misleading because they may be artifacts of the theoretical assumptions or empirical approaches used by analysts. The questions that this distinction raises are particularly important to systems scientists because they bear directly on whether powerful reductionist models of inquiry and evaluation, firmly entrenched in traditional scientific norms, will or should continue to dominate holistic perspectives for thinking about behavior in complex systems. The purpose of this paper is thus to review and explore differences that exist between the normative and non-normative views, and to use this synthesis as a framework for understanding the relative importance of the viewpoints as they relate to evaluating managerial performance.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Planning of rural development in developing countries requires participation and integration of various disciplines, such as economics, sociology, agriculture and health. Very often not all relevant disciplines participate and if they do, they analyze, plan and implement their programs separately. This paper presents an example of how simulation modeling can be helpful for interdisciplinary analysis of rural areas in the Third World. The analysis of the Bor District, an area in Southern Sudan, serves as an example.First a general verbal and graphical overview of the situation in the rural area of the Bor District is provided. This is followed by a more detailed analysis regarding the population, the food consumption, the agricultural production and the livestock production of the area.Due to lack of data, a common problem in remote areas in the Third World, many parameters has to be derived from studies of other, but to some extent similar, areas. Validation was therefore carried out by means of a sensitivity analysis and by comparing the model results with development in other areas. Experiments have been carried out by simulating the effects of one or more interventions, such as improvement of health services, veterinary services, the availability of water and schools, employment opportunity and the quantity of imported food, and the introduction of improved agricultural methods. The results indicate, that several interventions that initially seem to benefit the development of the area, prove to be disastrous after a number of years. In addition to that, some processes, that are unimportant in periods of stability, appear to become important when the system becomes unstable.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Initial testing is now complete on the TEMS instrument, the Technical Education Modeling and Simulation system. This research in the Industrial Education Department at Clemson University is a three phased project. The phases include developing an instrument (TEMS) similar to DYNAMO II (Pugh, 1970) for the modeling of socio-econ-educational systems, reducing world model concepts to a regional model for the state of South Carolina, and integrating technical education attributes and effects into the classical capital sector for this regional model.The TEMS system is developed in dBASE IV and ’C’. It has all the model definition building features and run characteristics of DYNAMO II. Written for an IBM AT class of equipment, TEMS will replicate the WORLD2 model (Forrester, 1971) results in 40 minutes for a 100 year run. TEMS supports both the real time graphic mappings of selected variables and post analysis graphics. It has both an integrated statistical interface to SPSS statistics and a reporting system for model runs, definitions, user created functions and run time statistics.Experimentation is in progress to calculate a CHAOS mapping for the class of level variable equations. Using this Verhulst equation mapping, TEMS should then dampen any wild ramping and explosiveness for these selected variables during the simulation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- A system dynamics model of food grain storage, government procurement and release, and import in Bangladesh is presented. The simulation results of the model for govt. procurement and release, and import policies are also presented. Finally, the policy implications of the model are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- This paper attempts to asses the impact of past and presently contemplated policies to maintain food self-sufficiency in a centrally-planned economy. The case of Vietnam is used as an illustration. Experimentation with a system dynamics model of the food production system incorporating relationships concerning soil ecology and agricultural land management policy serves as a basis for this assessment. Short-run policies to increase production are detrimental to maintaining food self-sufficiency in the long-run. A sustainable food production policy must incorporate soil conservation and improvement, control of population and possibly, finding food sources alternative to grain. Although difficult to implement in a market system, such a policy agenda may be feasible in a centrally-planned economy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- :The primary focus of the research reported in this paper was on the measurement of the value of information in the business firm. It involved development of a system dynamic model of a typical business firm and calibration of the model to an average firm in the can industry in the United States. The model has the five sectors of marketing, finance, production, research and development, and personnel. Data to calibrate the model came primarily from the Industrial Compustat data base. The model was used to test several propositions about the economic value of management information. This topic has been addressed by Morecroft (1977, 1979), Jones (1981) and others. The research extends work by them as well as demonstrating the multidimensional nature of information using the Gorry and Scott-Morton framework of typical information structure. A framework in which to assess information value is developed and discussed.The performance of the firm was assessed using cost, profitability and efficiency measures under various values for the information attributes of accuracy, timeliness, relevance and reliability at the strategic, managerial and operational levels of the firm. Several propositions about information value are offered given the results of the testing.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- :The advent of the micro-computer revolution brings about the potential for people to increase their understanding of our environment. Technologies are becoming available that enable people to become more active learners about their environment. Along with technological advance, system dynamics modelers are paying more attention to gaming environments as a means to increase the interactions that a wide variety of game-players or audiences have with system dynamics models. That is, by creating easy to use and graphical gaming interfaces, users are able to interact directly with a model with little or no prior training. Throughout the iterative gaming processes, they can learn not only the system under investigation, but also the relations that give rise to the phenomenon of interest: “Learning by playing around.”However, it is difficult to find general guidelines on how to create computer-based games, or, how to design gaming screens. Many researchers wishing to move into the area of gaming can look at existing gaming situations and attempt to emulate the best features of existing games. Although the “How to” depends upon the research purpose, the researchers and the game-player’s interests, the time frame of game, etc., general principles for designing games would reduce the ambiguity and the uncertainty in designing games in new areas, and heighten the utility and the applicability of the state of the art. This research proposes to advance our understanding of how to create gaming screens to support simulation-based games such as one linked to the STELLA software package. The research will document the experience of two teams of experts – one system dynamics modeling team and the other team of psychologists expert in human judgment and decision making – as they interact to create an interactive gaming simulation. In other words, the main purpose of the research is to examine issues that will be of use to modelers who are beginning the process of building system dynamics-based games. These issues will both reflect on “best practice” and attempt to articulate unresolved issues based upon interactions with the two expert teams.The case chosen for study will be the financing of solid waste disposal in New York State, focusing on the mutual responses of the state and local governments in the presence of a waste crisis. The research proceeds by documenting the various versions of the gaming screens that have been developed during several iteration of the development process. After this history of the project is given, reactions and suggestions from both system dynamics and judgment experts are summarized into a series of issues. These reflections are based upon a research journal that documents how and why various versions of the gaming interfaces were developed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- :Since the development of System Dynamics, it has been applied successfully to a range of complex problems in different areas. However, relatively little use of the methodology has been made in the field of transportation. This paper attempts to review and evaluate the utility of the System Dynamics methodology for transportation studies, showing that it is well suited to the needs of various analytical problems in transportation. In fact, System Dynamics offers a potential way forward for transportation planning in general. The focus of this paper is on appreciating the strengths and weakness of the methodology of System Dynamics as an aid to reach a better understanding and appreciation of the dynamic, feedback relationships between the transport system and the other major sectors contributing to the development of a new city in the Egyptian desert.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- One of the most difficult tasks facing highway administrators is how to efficiently manage the allocation of road funds. In this paper a comprehensible, easy-to-use, highway management tool is presented. This tool takes the form of a computer simulation model which is intended to assist managers of a network of highways to make better decisions concerning the allocation of scarce funds. It mainly simulates the effects of different investment strategies and maintenance options on the road network. This is done by tracing the life-cycle costs of the major activities of providing and maintaining the road system, and by considering the effects that these activities have on the state and performance of the road network.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- By means of a study in the application of System Dynamics theory and approach, a quantitative analysis of the coordinative development of the main agricultural productions in Heilongliang Province is made, constructing a simulation model of system dynamics which is composed of farming, forestry, animal husbandry fishery, land resoures and population.The relationships between the various productions mentioned above, as well as between the internal variables within each production are correctly described in the model. Simulation analyses on the relationships between various productions and between the internal variables within each production, by using the model, are made and, at the same time, many programs which have advantages for the coordinative development of various productions result from these analyses.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between transportation and other industries with system dynamics theory and method. We develop a system dynamics model to protray how the transportability influences other industries, and have made some computer simulation in which we simulated the dynamic characteristics of the system at different alternatives of investment.In the simulation, we properly reduced the investment in heavy industry and increase the investment in transportation, while the total amount of the investment is the same. The output value of heavy industry didn't decrease, on the contrary, it increased. At the same time, the output value of other industries and national income increased too. This indicates that the transportability directly influences the output value of other industries.From the simulation result we also see that the investment in transportation of China is too small and this leads to the situation that the development of transportation can't meet the demand of national economics in China.This paper is a application example of how system dynamics is used to solve problems of social economics. This research will help people to know the importance of transportation in national economics and government to make policy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- It is necessary to test a newly built model to make sure that it does simulate the actual system. The test may include many aspects, such as sensitive test, comparison test with history data, etc. This paper studies sensitive test and presents some results of the findings.In studying the structure of a given system, the endogenous variables and exogenous variables are given explicitly. If we can not tell the difference between them correctly, it may confuse the real meaning of the sensitive test.In the present analysis we find that the conditions for non-sensitivity of variables to a model are: 1) the change is made for one variable only and 2) the change is small. The conditions for sensitivity of the variables to the model are: 1) two or more variables change at the same time and 2) the change is great. A model may also become sensitive for a small change of the exogenous variable.The above results have been thoroughly investigated and the methods of the sensitive test are presented.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Most of the developing countries are faced the problem how to allocate limited resource to education to promote economy growth. In this paper, the System Dynamics methodology is employed to solve the problem. The interactions between education, economy and Science-Technology (S&T), and the inherent mechanism of education and economy are studied. Based on these studies, a system dynamics model for the national education and economy development is established. According to the actual socio-economic situation of China, several different resource allocation policies for education are tested on the model. Finally, some useful policy suggestions about resource allocation for education are given, such as the proper ratio of education expenditure to national income and the proper ratios of resources allocated to different levels of education.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- It is no doubt that China is now facing a challenge of inflation: quick prices rising, over issued monetary, rapid growing total social demand and unsufficient production supply....The present paper studies the inflation issue in China in terms of the macroeconomic theory of system dynamics, in order to find the fundamental causes and the self-promoting mechanism of inflation in China. In this paper, factors of total social demand, monetary issue, etc. have been qualitatively and quantitatively discussed, some policy tests have been made, and finally the new viewpoints and suggestions which help to cut down inflation are put forward. It is a new test to study inflation by system dynamics instead of by regression or curve fitting.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Based on the mechanism of interaction among R&D, technological progress, the change of industrial structure, and economic growth in both supply and demand sides, and with the help of dynamic input-output analysis, in this paper a system dynamics model is constructed, focusing on the notable impacts of technological change on structural change in the Chinese economy. Through modelling and policy analysis,some new findings and patterns of long-term development, including the preferential consequences and opportunity for industrial development, future prospects for China's S&T and economy during the next fifty years, the evolution of industrial structure in the process of industrialization, and resource allocation to different industries and R&D expenditure allocation, are obtained.
-
Xu, Quingri with Keyie Jin, "The Coordinative Development Between R&D and Tech-Acquisition in China"
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper studies the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition in the industrialization process of China, dealing with the mechanism of interaction between R&D and tech-acquisition. It also deals with the mechanism of limited resources allocation in capital investment to R&D and tech-acquisition areas. A system dynamics model about the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition is developed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper will outline the concept of system dynamics optimisation using the DYSMOD software and present a case study of its use to analyse a defence problem. The insights into the problem, which were generated from a conventional system dynamics model and its policy design experiments, will be given. This will be followed by the presentation of results from a set of optimisation experiments, utilising a range of objective functions and structural design parameters. The paper will focus on the value added to the understanding of the problem which resulted from this process. The overall conclusion is that optimisation subsumes conventional sensitivity analysis as well as providing an holistic interpretation of the behaviour of a system dynamics model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- It was once suggested to me, half jokingly perhaps, that System Dynamics offers “2nd -Generation Expert Systems – before the 1st Generation”. This paper reconciles the theories and processes, and draws upon business consulting assignments, to examine how close to reality this notion is.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- System Dynamics began thirty years ago as a bold attempt to apply engineering analysis concepts to business systems. But from the late 1960s onward, most System Dynamic research focused on public policy problems. Business applications have grown steadily, though less visibly and primarily outside academia. For example, over the past twenty-five years, Pugh-Roberts Associates has completed hundreds of management consulting assignments using System dynamics for clients in the financial services, aerospace, electronics, telecommunications, computer, chemical shipbuilding, transportation, electric power, energy, and natural resources industries. Some of the best-known, most successful businesses throughout the world have System Dynamics.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- General concepts for the quantitative description of the dynamics of social processes are introduced. They allow for embedding social science into the conceptual framework of synergetics. Equations of motion for the socioconfiguration are derived on the stochastic and quasideterministic level. As an application the migration of interacting human populations is treated. The solutions of the nonlinear migratory equations include limit cycles and strange attractors. The empiric evaluation of interregional migratory dynamics is exemplified in the case of Germany.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Based on our study of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, by means of mathematics, in terms of the viewpoint of system dynamics, this paper concentrates on the study of chaos in system dynamics: we analyze the nature of chaos phenomenon and the characteristics of system dynamics, put forward the viewpoint that chaos testing should be included in model testing of S. D.; we investigate several necessary conditions of chaos; we create a model to question a famous sufficient condition of chaos; then, we shed some light on the way toward which chaos will occur. At last, we successfully apply our theoretic study to a standard nuclear spin generator model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The main purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic behavior change of Shanghai's industrial structure. Shanghai's industry is facing a severe situation now. In one hand, the industry is required to make adjustments in its structure and distribution according to Shanghai economic development strategy; in the other hand, its ageing technology and structure of products, together with the shortage of energy and raw material, result in decline of profits in industrial enterprises and “landslip” of government revenue. Therefore, how to adjust the structure of Shanghai's industry reasonably is becoming an urgent task. With the aid of industrial development history of western developed countries, this paper analyzes the reasonable development of industry from four aspects, creates a system dynamics model to simulate the dynamic change of city's industrial structure and tests its validate. At last, the paper uses this model to analyze the trend of Shanghai industrial production and studies several problems in industrial economy, such as; selecting the leading industrial department of the city; allocating funds reasonably; using energy and raw material efficiently and affecting the technology, pollution and transportation on industry. In policy test, the paper proposes a series policies to authorities responsible for industry development for reference.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This study is related to the socio-economic development strategy of a typical underdeveloped coastal open city (named L) which was mainly done by means of system dynamics approach.L city is located in the north to the Taiwan Straits. It is one of the most famous lands of overseas Chinese ancestors in China. And it famous with a long history and splendid ancient culture. It is the starting point of the “Silk Way On Sea” with excellent ports and rich natural resources. L city had its economic prosperity in the ancient times. Coming to modern times, however, its economy was very backward because of having been closed the region to international intercourse for a very long time. Since the implementation of the economic reform and open policy, the city has achieved a great progress in the economy while the pace of regional industrialization has been more rapid in the past decades. It is the typical example on the coastal open area of China. Therefore, it is necessary to study the problems of regions to garantee the continuous, steady and coordinated development of the regional economy in the future.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- After being overlooked for many years, now the financial and monetary system plays an important role of adjustment and control functions in national economy, relating to which, the four economic leverages--price, tax rate, interest rate and wage are the main tools of carrying out these functions. Based on system dynamics approach, this paper quantitatively studies the long-term development tendency of their interaction and coordination. Based on simulating results under normal economy development, policy tests and analyses have been done to discuss the problems emerging from current economic reform. The reasonable ranges of the adjustment of price, tax rate, interest rate and wage increase rate are suggested and the amount of money supply are discussed. Then some policies of coordinately applying the leverages to improve the behaviors of system are put forward. This paper has made some progress in quantitatively analysing the long-term development of the financial and monetary system, in establishing a credible and practical model for policy analysis to solve the problems emerging from the economy of China.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Taking Shanghai as an example, we have studied qualitatively and quantitatively the problems concerned with the coordinated development of the R&D and socio-economy for a typical large city in China. In this paper we first discuss some theoretical problems concerned with the coordinated development, then using the approach of system analysis to investigate the typical phenomena characterizing the imbalances of the development and the main reasons (constraints) which have caused these imbalances. And then we outline our main framework and ideas of the “System Dynamics Model for the Coordinated Development of R&D and Socio-economy”, illustrate the main strategy spectrum analyses and policy tests conducted on the model, and present the main conclusions and policy recommendations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- In this work, we examine advantages of formalization, and specially Ziegler's system formalization, relating to the most fundamental concepts used when building models with System Dynamics (SD). This is exemplified through the University/Unemployed model. We finish talking about the relations between model, theory and system concepts.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on human behavior in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts including auctions, bargaining, and preference elicitation (Plott1986, Smith 1986, Slovic and Lichtenstein 1983). Despite the success of experimental techniques in the domain of the individual and small group, there has been comparatively little work relating the behavior of decision makers to the dynamics of larger organizations such as an industry or the macroeconomy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The subject of how organizations learn and how organizational learning can be enhanced and accelerated is becoming a major interest in the business world. In the movement to reinvigorate American manufacturing, organizational learning has emerged as a major theme. In Hays, Wheelwright and Clark's recent book Dynamic Manufacturing: Creating the Learning Organization, (Hays, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., Clark, K.B., 1988) the authors conclude:“There is one common denominator in high-performance plants: an ability to learn-to achieve sustained improvement in performance over a long period of time. When assessing a manufacturing organization, learning is the bottom line.”
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The competitive situation of the German Federal Railway has visibly intensified due to the following factors: the way in which important customers (the coal and steel and fertiliser industries) are susceptible to crisis; the longstanding political favouring of road construction; the introduction of new technologies (video link-up, electronic mail etc.); and also the europeanisation of the transport market and the associated price decay (Duetsche Bundesbahn, 1987). The precarious financial situation, as well as growing pressure from the public, presents the railway management with the difficult task of, on the one hand, reducing costs, and on the other hand, of improving the standard of service offered. In order to be able to cope with this problem, it is necessary to identify and formulate corresponding strategies, against the background of existing strengths and weaknesses, as well as growing chances and risks arising from environmental development. Through the strategies, and through innovation, invention and reduction in costs, the railway can be developed from a bureaucratic institution to a modern and competitive tertiary sector company. Only in this way can the railway's ability to survive be secured in the long term (Zahn, 1988).This paper presents a system dynamics model, which portrays an important area of the federal railway. With the help of this model, the interrelations and mutual dependencies of this complex system are to be demonstrated. The model provides a valuable article in the field of strategic planning, in which strategic decisions, which are often based on uncertain information, can now be founded on a sound basis, and therefore, the decision process can be effectively supported.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- System Dynamics modeling has been applied to regional, urban, and community problem solving where critical policies are concerned with land-use controls. Representation of change in the spatial distribution and physical appearances of various activities have traditionally been achieved by modeling these as transfers between relatively homogeneous sub-area sectors. Due to lack of capabilities for direct representation of System Dynamics modeling has received little attention in environmental and city planning practice. In this paper, we describe the main components of a methodology to make System Dynamics modeling more integral in planning and design for community development, also including spatial representation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper reports findings of experiments with a system dynamics model of resource allocation in the political system of a developing country. Political patterns resulting from various assumptions about government attitudes are examined with respect to empirical evidence about these. The analysis helps to understand circular cause and effect relationships that shape internal trends affecting the government's commitment to economic development agenda and its ability to resolve political conflict generated over the course of implementation of this agenda.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper describes a user-friendly learning medium that revisits the problem of economic development with a behavioral perspective. Formal modelling and computer simulation create a laboratory which makes it possible to experiment with ideas without incurring the costs and risks of action research. Besides sharing the insights gained by the author in his experiments, the package also invites further experimentation by the readers through use of the accompanying software.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The paper deals with Roemer's claims that the Marxian theory of surplus value is logically faulty and should be considered the special case of his own “general theory of exploitation” (the “GTE”). It is shown that Roemer's models and theorems implicitly confirms the main point of “Das Kapital”: profit does be the the converted form of surplus value produced by working class under capitalism.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- As for as we know there are relatively few examples of application of System Dynamics in the electric power Industry. Some of them are nonetheless of high interest. We can mention the program of the Bonneville Power Administration that had been presented in a previous Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Our purpose at Electricité de France was to scan the areas in which System Dynamics could be helpfull to our company.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- System dynamics models are typically created using multiple streams of information including quantitative data, written records, and information contained in mental models of both individuals and groups. While qualitative sources of information are widely recognized as important in all stages of the model building process, little systematic research has been completed how best to elicit and map this knowledge. In this paper, we survey the existing literature on mapping and eliciting knowledge for system dynamics modeling and also explore this literature in the broader fields of cognitive psychology and small group processes. Special attention is paid to new software advances to support these processes.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The costs associated with liability in the United States are rising dramatically and persistently. Escalating medical malpractice premiums threaten the scope and availability of health care in many states. Increasing costs for automobile insurance have led to public referenda to cap premiums, in turn driving insurers out of practice in some states. Runaway litigation costs prompting calls for major revisions in liability stautes and the whole tort liability system.Over the past two years, two independent system dynamics studies of the rising costs of liability insurance have been conducted. One study focused on forces driving rising settlement costs within a leading property and liability insurance provider. That study has resulted in a learning laboratory to help managers throughout the firm form a more systemic perspective on how established policies and practices within the firm might contribute to rising costs. The other study, done for the New York State Insurance Department looked at the problem of medical malpractice from a statewide regulatory perspective. It was designed to provide help to the state legislature in setting the state's policy on rates over the next three years.This paper assembles some of the work done in these two independent studies, reports on their findings, and discusses their policy implications. Of particular interest are implications of the internal and external system dynamics perspectives on the problem- where they agree, where they disagree and where they help illuminate each other.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- People of different nations often meet with the intent of destroying each other with the technology and techniques of modern warfare. This has come to be the reality of modern politics. Yet mass warfare has not been a permanent fixture throughout the history of mankind. In this paper, an attempt is made to gain a better understanding of what caused the transition from localized tribal feuding.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Apparently the electricity sector of Argentina has suffered in the past from excessive capacity planning, owing to overoptimistic forecasts of demand growth rate. But because of the long delays involved and lack of financial backing this advantage has been progressively lost. The present official planning only provides for renovation and demographic growth, not allowing for economic growth. Therefore, the actual supply-demand balance of electricity can easily be worn away by technical obsolescence and aging process of the actual installed capacity of electricity production.The problem behaviour arises when the timing of new capacity investment is delayed, falling behind the programmed schedule of new plants, without being able to meet the electricity demand. This could happen mainly due to political prices well below costs because of the inflation and or social subsidization, which leads, in turn, to the discapitalization of the sector, that still remains nationalized. A system dynamics model is used to explore the trade-off between construction delays (which entails costs of unsatisfied demand) and construction speed up (which entails financial costs).
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The theoretical results are mixed at best. Linear systems do not show novel behavior. Some non-linear models may show new growth modes as revealed by formulas for the eigenvalues of the linearized versions of such models. The new growth modes shown by a reduced-order version of the Commodity Cycle model (Meadows, 1970) suggest that this non-linear model may support novel behavior in some regimes of operation. This paper partially lays to rest that expectation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper discusses the multilevel evaluation system and fuzzy synthetical evaluation method for the validity of the system dynamics model, and gives a computation example at last. The example proves that fuzzy synthetical evaluation can give satisfactory results.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The U.S. Energy system has been the subject of intense national interest and policy debate over the past two decades. During that time the U.S. has experienced a steady trend toward increased oil imports, two major oil embargoes, oil price shocks, and a series of government policy initiatives designed to reduce its vulnerability to oil supply disruptions: Project Independence, the National Energy Plan, and more recently oil and gas price deregulation.Understanding the dynamics of the U.S. Energy system has been the focus of a decade-long System Dynamics modeling effort which began in 1972 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, continued at Dartmouth College, and is now centered at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The analytical focus of that effort is an integrated model of U.S. energy supply and demand called FOSSIL2, which is used to prepare projections for energy policy analysis in the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis. This paper describes the conceptual development of the FOSSIL2 model, and its use in analyzing national energy policy issues.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The structured systems approach integrates the design of computerised models and information systems with comprehensive relational data bases. It can be applied to any kind of optimisation and simulation models including system dynamics. In addition, the structured systems approach supports the model design process and its documentation; it simulates the interdisciplinary and interpersonal participation in the model design process.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The top managers of a biotechnology startup firm agreed to participate in a system dynamics modelling project to help them think about the firm's growth strategy. The paper describes how the model was created and used in order to stimulate debate and discussion about growth management.There were several novel features about the process used for capturing management team knowledge in the model, and for representing unique structural features of biotechnology manufacturing and marketing. The paper highlights these novel aspects of conceptualisation. A heavy emphasis was placed on mapping the operating structure of the factory and distribution channels. In addition, much time and effort was spent on choosing model concepts and vocabulary suited to the business and to thinking carefully about units of measure and dimensions. Qualitative modelling methods (structural diagrams, long variable names and friendly documented algebra) were used extensively to capture the management team's description of the business.The size of the model (and partial models) was kept deliberately small to ensure the involvement of the management team. Simulation scenarios were designed to stimulate debate about strategic issues such as capacity allocation, capacity expansion, customer recruitment, customer retention and market growth. The paper describes how the management team was 'drawn-in' to using the computer to design and debate their own strategic scenarios. The paper concludes with comments on the impact of the project.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- During the last few years we have witnessed the development of two main lines in computeroriented strategic decision support- quantitative simulation approaches und qualitative knowledge based (expert-) systems. As we will show in this paper the process of strategy making can be improved by combining the two approaches within loop-based strategic decision support systems.The potential of the loop-based strategic decision support approach is demonstrated with the “know-how transfer model” which explains the evolution of multinational corporations in less developed countries and which helps to improve the strategic internationalization and know-how transfer decisions.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Operational games based on System Dynamics models have been used in System Dynamics teaching since the first days of the field. Already in the text Problems in a Industrial Dynamics (D. Packer, MIT Press, 1962) was described the simple production distribution exercise, widely known as “the beer game.” This game is so effective that it has been used in almost every introductory System Dynamics course over the past thirty years. Nevertheless, until the early 1980s there were essentially no further efforts to develop and use System Dynamics games, except for a few management-training exercises developed by consulting companies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Water resource development requires development and operation of expensive facilities. Planning, design, and execution of water resource projects in Iran have been taking a period of time much longer than what is considered as a normal time. In addition, the projects are costing much more than normal. This paper presents a system dynamics model to analyze the behavior of the water resource development system. The paper shows that high cost and long construction time are results of policies that govern decisions related to budget allocation, start of new projects and price of water. The paper shows that how alternative policies could improve the behavior of the system. It is argued that appropriate planning approach for water resource development should consider the feedback mechanism in the water resource development system and concentrate on design policies that control the behavior of the system through those feedback loops.