An earlier effort at projecting the future incidence of AIDS among adult homosexuals in New York City is reviewed in the light of data for 18 more months. One of the previous models holds up well against the new data. The model projects a temporary leveling off or reduction in new AIDS incidence, followed by a long, slower resurge. The HIV transmission probability, given an infected partner, is estimated at around 0.003. This level is barely sufficient to sustain endogenous growth in the homosexual population. From this it may tentatively be concluded that the epidemic will not start to spread exponentially among the heterosexuals provided they engage in less risky sexual behaviors than homosexuals.

This is the whole item.

Date created

• 1990

Type

• Document

Processing Activity

• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

License

• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
  Contact Us for questions or additional rights.

ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a

Scope and Contents

Part of

e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9

Scope and Contents

Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

Scope and Contents

Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives