:MACRO: P EXP(input) P EXP = EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input))) ~ input ~ Exponentiation protected against over/underflow | :END OF MACRO: :MACRO: SSHAPE(input) SSHAPE = EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input)))/(1+EXP(MAX(-50,MIN(50,input)))) ~ dmnl ~ Exponential s-shaped curve; -infinity -> 0, 0 -> .5, infinity -> 1 | :END OF MACRO: additional investment in clean technology= WITH LOOKUP ( Time, ([(0,-0.01)-(600,10)],(0,0),(20,0),(21,0),(500,0) )) ~ 1/year ~ negatief omdat daling\!\!\! | constant cleansing flow for industrialists= 10 ~ PU/year ~ | Gross World Product= Output per Capita*Population ~ $/year ~ | Effective Natural Capital= MIN(Natural Capital Upper Bound,MAX(Natural Capital Lower Bound,Natural Capital)) ~ NKU ~ | Natural Capital Lower Bound= 1e-005 ~ NKU ~ | Natural Capital Upper Bound= 0.9999 ~ NKU ~ | ******************************************************** .Output ********************************************************~ | Output Growth Rate= Growth Rate-(Growth Rate+Contraction Rate)*(1-Effective Natural Capital)^Contraction Nonlin\ + additional investment in clean technology/Pollution per Unit Output ~ 1/year ~ TOEGEVOEGD VOOR INVESTERINGSKOST ADD INV IN CLEAN TECH + additional \ investment in clean technology/Pollution per Unit Output | Contraction Rate= 0.1 ~ 1/year ~ eta Contraction rate when natural capital = 0 | Contraction Nonlin = 2 ~ dmnl ~ lambda | Growth Rate= 0.02 ~ 1/year ~ gamma Growth rate when natural capital = 1 originally 0.04 | Net per Capita Output = Output per Capita-Pollution Control ~ $/person/year ~ ybar | Output Net Change Rate = Output per Capita*Output Growth Rate ~ $/person/year/year ~ | Output per Capita = INTEG(Output Net Change Rate,1) ~ $/person/year ~ y(t) | ******************************************************** .NaturalCapital ********************************************************~ | Cleansing Flow= 0 *Cleansing Rate/Regen Coeff*Effective Natural Capital^Cleansing Coeff + constant cleansing flow for industrialists ~ PU/year ~ 1/0.1 * ENCē ------- Industrials/economists HYPOTHESE ALTIJD = + constant \ cleansing flow for industrialists | Regeneration Rate= Normal Regen Rate*(P EXP(Regen Coeff*(Cleansing Flow-Net Pollution Flow))-1) ~ 1/NKU/year ~ | Natural Capital Net Change Rate= Regeneration Rate*Effective Natural Capital*(1-Effective Natural Capital) ~ NKU/year ~ | Cleansing Coeff = 2 ~ dmnl ~ rho | Cleansing Rate = 1 ~ dmnl ~ delta | Natural Capital = INTEG(Natural Capital Net Change Rate,0.98) ~ NKU ~ z(t) | Normal Regen Rate = 1 ~ 1/NKU/year ~ nu | Regen Coeff = 0.1 ~ 1/PU*year ~ omega | ******************************************************** .Population ********************************************************~ | Envir Effect Death= 1+Envir Death Scale*MAX(0.01,1-Effective Natural Capital)^Envir Death Nonlin ~ dmnl ~ MIN added to prevent floating point error. | Birth Coeff 1 = 0.04 ~ 1/year ~ beta1 | Birth Coeff 2 = 1.375 ~ dmnl ~ beta2 | Birth Income Effect = 0.16 ~ 1/$*person*year ~ beta | Birth Rate = Birth Coeff 1*(Birth Coeff 2-SSHAPE(Birth Income Effect*Net per Capita Output\ )) ~ 1/year ~ | Births = Birth Rate*Population ~ people/year ~ | Death Coeff 1 = 0.01 ~ 1/year ~ delta1 | Death Coeff 2 = 2.5 ~ dmnl ~ delta2 | Death Income Effect = 0.18 ~ 1/$*person*year ~ alpha | Death Rate = Normal Death Rate*Envir Effect Death ~ 1/year ~ | Deaths = Population*Death Rate ~ people/year ~ | Envir Death Nonlin = 15 ~ dmnl ~ upsilon | Envir Death Scale = 4 ~ dmnl ~ delta3 | Normal Death Rate = Death Coeff 1*(Death Coeff 2-SSHAPE(Death Income Effect*Net per Capita Output\ )) ~ 1/year ~ | Population = INTEG(Births-Deaths,1) ~ people ~ x(t) | ******************************************************** .Pollution ********************************************************~ | Pollution Intensity Change Rate= Pollution per Unit Output*(Pollution Change Rate + additional investment in clean technology\ ) ~ PU/$/year ~ chi | Pollution Control= Control Scale*(1-Effective Natural Capital)^Control Nonlin*Output per Capita ~ $/person/year ~ c(y,z) | Abatement Coeff = 2 ~ PU/year ~ kappa | Control Effect = 0.02 ~ 1/$*year ~ epsilon | Control Nonlin = 2 ~ dmnl ~ mu | Control Scale = 0.5 ~ dmnl ~ j | Net Pollution Flow = Pollution Output-Pollution Abatement ~ PU/year ~ f(x,y,z,p) | Pollution Abatement = Abatement Coeff*(SSHAPE(Control Effect*Pollution Control*Population\ )-0.5) ~ PU/year ~ | Pollution Change Rate= -0.03 ~ 1/year ~ chi | Pollution Output = Population*Output per Capita*Pollution per Unit Output ~ PU/year ~ | Pollution per Unit Output = INTEG(Pollution Intensity Change Rate,1) ~ PU/$ ~ p(t) | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Paramaters | FINAL TIME = 500 ~ year ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 0 ~ year ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER = TIME STEP ~ year ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.5 ~ year ~ The time step for the simulation. | \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *View 1 $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96 10,1,Population,358,198,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 12,2,48,510,197,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 11,3,48,465,198,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,4,Births,465,214,20,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 12,5,48,183,199,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 11,6,48,245,197,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,7,Deaths,245,213,23,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,8,Output per Capita,370,399,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 12,9,48,154,397,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 11,10,48,253,396,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,11,Output Net Change Rate,253,412,78,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,12,Natural Capital,291,546,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 12,13,48,504,547,8,8,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 11,14,48,444,546,5,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,15,Natural Capital Net Change Rate,444,565,103,11,32,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,16,Pollution per Unit Output,788,396,40,20,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 12,17,48,817,240,8,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 11,18,48,817,279,10,10,33,3,0,0,2,0,0,0 10,19,Pollution Intensity Change Rate,751,279,56,19,40,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,20,Pollution Control,497,399,53,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,21,Net per Capita Output,408,326,26,27,8,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,22,Net Pollution Flow,712,472,59,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,23,Death Rate,163,261,36,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,24,Birth Rate,467,263,33,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,25,Cleansing Flow,482,619,46,46,2,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,255-0-255,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,26,Regeneration Rate,633,512,58,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||0-128-0 10,27,Normal Regen Rate,746,555,65,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|0-128-0 10,28,Regen Coeff,666,601,42,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|0-128-0 10,29,Cleansing Coeff,590,649,54,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|0-128-0 10,30,Cleansing Rate,386,657,51,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|0-128-0 10,31,Pollution Output,690,309,51,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,32,Pollution Abatement,601,441,63,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,33,Abatement Coeff,638,368,48,48,2,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,255-128-0,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 10,34,Control Effect,575,479,49,11,0,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-64-0 10,35,Control Nonlin,480,496,51,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-64-0 10,36,Control Scale,430,476,46,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-64-0 10,37,Output Growth Rate,261,445,64,11,0,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12||255-0-0 10,38,Growth Rate,258,495,32,19,8,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|255-0-0 10,39,Contraction Rate,136,450,42,22,8,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|255-0-0 10,40,Contraction Nonlin,162,491,42,19,8,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|255-0-0 10,41,Envir Effect Death,110,354,57,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,42,Normal Death Rate,262,297,61,11,0,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-0-255 10,43,Death Coeff 1,170,324,48,11,0,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,44,Death Coeff 2,227,341,48,11,0,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,45,Death Income Effect,285,362,69,11,0,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,46,Envir Death Nonlin,131,229,42,19,8,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,47,Envir Death Scale,82,263,27,28,8,3,0,19,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,48,Birth Coeff 1,566,246,44,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,49,Birth Coeff 2,541,223,44,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,50,Birth Income Effect,591,273,65,11,0,3,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|IU|128-0-255 10,51,Pollution Change Rate,774,191,50,50,2,3,0,3,-1,0,0,0,255-128-0,0-0-0,|12||128-64-0 1,52,3,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(429,198)| 1,53,3,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(486,198)| 1,54,6,5,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(215,197)| 1,55,6,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(284,197)| 1,56,10,8,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(294,396)| 1,57,10,9,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(205,396)| 1,58,14,12,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(385,546)| 1,59,14,13,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(472,546)| 1,60,18,16,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(817,332)| 1,61,18,17,68,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(817,258)| 1,62,8,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(420,399)| 1,63,8,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(381,354)| 1,64,20,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(474,356)| 1,65,1,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(417,217)| 1,66,1,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(295,219)| 1,67,21,24,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(446,296)| 1,68,24,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(472,241)| 1,69,23,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(202,226)| 1,70,22,26,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(683,497)| 1,71,25,26,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(566,581)| 1,72,26,15,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(559,548)| 1,73,27,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(696,535)| 1,74,28,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(651,563)| 1,75,28,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(582,608)| 1,76,29,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(545,636)| 1,77,30,25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(419,643)| 1,78,1,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(541,176)| 1,79,8,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(532,321)| 1,80,16,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(777,345)| 1,81,31,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(721,377)| 1,82,20,32,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(538,414)| 1,83,32,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(660,438)| 1,84,33,32,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(614,413)| 1,85,34,32,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(583,465)| 1,86,1,32,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(479,319)| 1,87,35,20,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(497,451)| 1,88,36,20,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(472,446)| 1,89,37,11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(259,435)| 1,90,8,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(332,427)| 1,91,39,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(180,448)| 1,92,38,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(259,472)| 1,93,40,37,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(213,466)| 1,94,41,23,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(124,310)| 1,95,42,23,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(219,281)| 1,96,43,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(208,312)| 1,97,44,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(239,324)| 1,98,45,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(276,336)| 1,99,21,42,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(356,315)| 1,100,46,41,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(115,285)| 1,101,47,41,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(85,305)| 1,102,48,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(517,253)| 1,103,49,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(510,239)| 1,104,50,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(519,267)| 1,105,16,18,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(788,344)| 1,106,51,18,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(782,228)| 10,107,Effective Natural Capital,145,546,76,11,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,108,Natural Capital Upper Bound,101,624,49,19,8,3,1,16,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|S|0-0-0 10,109,Natural Capital Lower Bound,214,640,49,19,8,3,1,16,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|S|0-0-0 1,110,108,107,0,1,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(121,587)| 1,111,109,107,0,1,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(181,594)| 1,112,12,107,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(243,546)| 1,113,107,15,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(345,599)| 1,114,107,25,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(287,619)| 1,115,107,41,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(88,434)| 1,116,107,20,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(357,485)| 1,117,107,37,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(197,500)| 10,118,Gross World Product,366,267,43,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,119,8,118,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(361,299)| 1,120,1,118,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(360,222)| 10,121,additional investment in clean technology,629,164,73,19,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12||255-128-0 1,122,121,19,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-128-0,|12||255-128-0,1|(671,230)| 1,123,121,37,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(374,441)| 1,124,16,37,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(374,453)| 10,125,Time,652,173,40,20,8,2,1,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,126,125,121,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(651,173)| 10,127,constant cleansing flow for industrialists,729,635,73,19,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12||255-0-255 1,128,127,25,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(598,626)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *View 2 $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96 ///---\\\ :GRAPH POPULATIONOUTPUTPERCAPITA :TITLE PopulationOutputpercapita :SCALE :VAR Gross World Product :DATASET Milik1Dream :SCALE :VAR Population :DATASET Milik1Dream :SCALE :VAR Gross World Product :DATASET Milik2Nightmare :SCALE :VAR Population :DATASET Milik2Nightmare :SCALE :VAR Gross World Product :DATASET Milik3Escape :SCALE :VAR Population :DATASET Milik3Escape :L<%^E!@ 1:MC01ENV2c.vdf 1:MC01ENV1c.vdf 1:MC01ENV0c.vdf 1:MC01ENV0b.vdf 1:MC01ENV2a.vdf 1:MC01ENV1a.vdf 1:MC01ENV0a.vdf 9:MC01ENV2c 22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s 22:Day,Days 22:dmnl,NKU 22:Hour,Hours 22:Month,Months 22:Person,People,Persons 22:Unit,Units 22:Week,Weeks 22:Year,Years 18:MC01.vsc 20:MC1.lst 15:0,0,0,1,0,0 19:100,0 27:0, 4:Time 5:Cleansing Flow 24:0 25:500 26:500