{UTF-8}
Capability Investment Productivitiy=
	1
	~	
	~		|

"managerial short-term response"=
	1/(1+EXP(LN(management bonus)*(1-smoothed expected vs actual)))
	~	
	~		|

bonus fraction=
	10
	~	
	~		|

management bonus= ACTIVE INITIAL (
	SMOOTH((actual earnings) * (bonus fraction/100),1),
		1)
	~	
	~		|

holding period= INTEG (
	change in holding period,
		initial holding period)
	~	
	~		|

initial discount rate=
	"risk-free return" + "specific risk (ß)" * market premium
	~	
	~		|

initial holding period=
	12
	~	
	~	Initially, 5 years = 60 months
	|

invested capital=
	1000
	~	
	~	TO begin with, 1000
	|

investor discount rate= INTEG (
	change in discount rate/10,
		initial discount rate)
	~	
	~		|

expected earnings=
	invested capital * (investor discount rate/100) * (holding period/initial holding period\
		)
	~	
	~	Expect = Kapital x Diskontierungssatz * Apassung Holding Period;
	|

market premium=
	5
	~	
	~		|

"risk-free return"=
	3
	~	
	~	US Treasury Bill return rate (approx.)
	|

change in discount rate=
	SMOOTH(1- (expected vs actual earnings), time to form change expectations)
	~	
	~	Wenn expected vs actual > 1, >> langsames Absinken der Erwartung, wenn < 1 \
		>> langsames Ansteigen der Erwartung
	|

change in holding period=
	(1-SQRT(expected vs actual earnings))
	~	
	~	Wenn expected vs actual > 1, langsame Verlängerung der Haltezeit, wenn < \
		1, langsame Verkürzung der Haltezeit
	|

"specific risk (ß)"=
	1
	~	
	~	At the beginning firm risk = market risk
	|

time to form change expectations=
	3
	~	
	~	Averaging 24 months of meeting expected earnings
	|

expected vs actual earnings=
	(expected earnings)/(actual earnings)
	~	
	~		|

effort to generate earnings=
	total effort possible * "managerial short-term response"
	~	
	~		|

smoothed expected vs actual=
	SMOOTHI( expected vs actual earnings, time for smoothing, 1)
	~	
	~		|

time for smoothing=
	3
	~	
	~		|

Effort to Develop Capability=
	total effort possible * (1-"managerial short-term response")
	~	
	~		|

actual earnings=
	Capabilty^alpha*(effort to generate earnings)^beta
	~	
	~		|

total effort possible=
	200
	~	
	~		|

alpha=
	0.7
	~	
	~		|

Capability Growth=
	Effort to Develop Capability^Capability Investment Productivitiy
	~	
	~		|

beta=
	0.3
	~	
	~		|

Average Capabilty Life=
	36
	~	
	~		|

Capability Erosion=
	Capabilty/Average Capabilty Life
	~	
	~		|

Capabilty= INTEG (
	Capability Growth-Capability Erosion,
		100)
	~	
	~		|

********************************************************
	.Control
********************************************************~
		Simulation Control Parameters
	|

FINAL TIME  = 240
	~	Month
	~	The final time for the simulation.
	|

INITIAL TIME  = 0
	~	Month
	~	The initial time for the simulation.
	|

SAVEPER  = 
        TIME STEP
	~	Month [0,?]
	~	The frequency with which output is stored.
	|

TIME STEP  = 1
	~	Month [0,?]
	~	The time step for the simulation.
	|

\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*View 1
$192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,5,0
10,1,Capabilty,331,405,43,20,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,2,48,123,399,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,3,5,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(252,399)|
1,4,5,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(168,399)|
11,5,48,210,399,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,6,Capability Growth,210,425,40,18,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,7,48,550,405,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,8,10,7,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(500,405)|
1,9,10,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(411,405)|
11,10,48,454,405,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,11,Capability Erosion,454,425,69,12,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,12,Average Capabilty Life,503,311,50,18,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,13,actual earnings,433,522,38,21,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,14,expected vs actual earnings,664,494,50,22,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,15,Effort to Develop Capability,201,580,60,21,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,16,Capability Investment Productivitiy,90,501,73,22,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,17,1,10,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(398,311)|
1,18,12,10,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(498,360)|
1,19,1,13,1,0,43,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(409,450)|
1,20,13,14,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(545,469)|
1,21,15,6,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(183,487)|
1,22,16,6,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(117,449)|
12,23,0,392,368,59,11,8,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
capability erosion
12,24,0,396,337,14,14,4,135,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
B3
12,25,0,277,532,50,11,8,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
growth  engine
12,26,0,579,600,32,19,8,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
make the numbers
12,27,0,296,496,15,15,4,135,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
R2
12,28,0,558,542,15,15,4,135,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
B2
10,29,alpha,368,480,18,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,30,beta,367,566,15,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,31,29,13,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(393,485)|
1,32,30,13,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(390,559)|
10,33,total effort possible,329,693,45,21,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,34,33,15,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(262,655)|
10,35,effort to generate earnings,441,659,35,35,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,36,35,13,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(421,592)|
1,37,33,35,0,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(383,676)|
10,38,"managerial short-term response",605,719,64,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,39,38,35,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(485,722)|
1,40,38,15,1,0,45,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(325,754)|
10,41,smoothed expected vs actual,729,632,62,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,42,14,41,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(720,550)|
1,43,41,38,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(714,673)|
10,44,time for smoothing,822,587,58,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,45,44,41,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(787,614)|
10,46,investor discount rate,1061,361,86,21,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,47,holding period,646,203,88,20,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,48,48,411,199,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,49,51,47,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(519,198)|
1,50,51,48,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(445,198)|
11,51,48,475,198,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,52,change in holding period,475,225,55,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,53,48,1288,360,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,54,56,46,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1179,359)|
1,55,56,53,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1250,359)|
11,56,48,1217,359,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,57,change in discount rate,1217,386,41,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,58,expected earnings,815,332,33,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,59,46,58,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(926,309)|
12,60,0,923,402,20,20,5,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
R1
12,61,0,953,451,43,19,8,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
react on achievement
10,62,"risk-free return",1042,204,47,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,63,market premium,1149,225,51,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,64,"specific risk (ß)",1307,244,49,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,65,47,58,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(754,247)|
10,66,initial holding period,779,189,41,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,67,0,679,263,20,20,4,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
B1
12,68,0,663,320,40,34,8,135,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
invest as long as profitable
10,69,invested capital,896,178,48,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,70,69,58,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(879,251)|
10,71,initial discount rate,1128,294,58,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,72,62,71,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1093,234)|
1,73,63,71,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1136,248)|
1,74,64,71,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1201,258)|
1,75,71,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(1104,317)|
10,76,time to form change expectations,1307,481,63,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,77,76,57,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1288,419)|
1,78,66,47,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(743,193)|
1,79,66,58,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(803,253)|
1,80,58,14,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(752,347)|
1,81,14,52,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(610,336)|
1,82,14,57,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1148,445)|
10,83,management bonus,933,683,48,25,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,84,13,83,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(652,441)|
12,85,0,823,683,20,20,4,7,0,0,-1,0,0,0
R3
12,86,0,777,725,44,19,8,7,0,16,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|12|I|0-0-0
pay for performance
10,87,bonus fraction,1051,612,42,18,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,88,87,83,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(977,613)|
1,89,83,38,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(806,801)|
///---\\\
:L<%^E!@
1:base run.vdf
9:base run
22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s
22:Hour,Hours
22:Month,Months
22:Person,People,Persons
22:Unit,Units
22:Week,Weeks
22:Year,Years
22:Day,Days
23:0
18:SD_Managermodell_v2.vsc
20:SD_Managermodell_v2.lst
15:0,0,0,0,0,0
19:5,0
27:2,
34:0,
4:Time
5:Capability Investment Productivitiy
35:Date
36:YYYY-MM-DD
37:2000
38:1
39:1
40:2
41:0
24:0
25:240
26:240