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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- In many of the United States, attempts to reform the funding of public education to reduce disparities among school districts have been disappointing. For this study of state aid-to-education in Connecticut, a system dynamics model of local district budgeting behavior was formulated, replicated seven times to represent all the school districts in Connecticut divided into seven clusters, and linked to a state-aid sector that dispenses aid according to the state's current guaranteed wealth formula. Simulations of a single cluster and the seven-cluster model suggest that the guaranteed wealth formula will not, by itself, narrow the gap in per-pupil expenditures in rich and poor districts, as intended. The study described is a relatively pure case of policy modeling designed not to confirm hypotheses but rather to draw inferences from puzzling sets of assumptions about state and local behavior. Reflecting on this case, we suggest six conditions that appear to indicate that a policy problem is ripe for the sort of contingent, inference-generating analysis illuminated by the Connecticut study. Some speculative methodological connections to cognitive science are also suggested."
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper re-examines the economic development problem and establishes that organizational arrangements underlying resource use at the social, political, and ecological levels, not shortage of resources per se, or their inefficient employment, are responsible for creating conditions of underdevelopment and for the failure of the well-intentioned economic development efforts made in the past. Three levels of national organization are examined: the social level which is concerned with the production and distribution of income among various cross-sections of society; the political level where decisions are made to allocate resources to public welfare or to maintaining control over the public; and the ecological level where a resource mix is selected for use on the basis economic and technological considerations. The analysis is based on three separate formal system dynamics models of the resource allocation processes dealing with each of the three levels of national organization discussed above. Appropriate institutional arrangements for fostering sustained national growth are explored.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- Systems Theory has developed without inner coordination.The General Theory has been general in the sense of trying to reach a global viewpoint from the perspectives of science and philosophy. But it has not perceived its structure as a whole. It has grown in complexity without integrating its parts.Systems Dynamics has expanded in relative isolation. It has developed into a closed methodology with fixed principles and structure. To a great extent it has been equated to the Forrester's methodology applied to industrial, urban and global systems.It would be valuable to place the Dynamic approach in a wider context. It is assumed here that in a General Systems methodological framework the same system can be considered from three different, but complementary, viewpoints: Static, Dynamic and Dialectic. It is also assumed that closeness and openess of systems are relative states and that analysis and synthesis should have analogous methodological weight.Systems Dynamics appears as a central node in a systemic methodology that should integrate different approaches and viewpoints into a coherent whole.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- A mathematical model and digital computer simulation of the human renal filtration controls are herein developed. The purpose of the model is to provide a method of analysing renal filtration control hypotheses which cannot easily be tested in an animal or human. The method used in the construction of the model was system dynamics.We propose an original formulation for the numerous different variables, eg, Bowman capsule pressure, glomerular absorption, net filtration and other considered variables in the model.This model can simulate the dynamic functions of variables such as colloidal osmotic pressure, glomerular capillaries, tubular filter, along with other clinical determinants.The model simulates disparate situations, such as the effects of renal filtration variations of arterial pressure, concentration of plasma proteins...The results presented coincide with those of other authors.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- The decision rules in simulation models purport to describe decision-making behavior as it is and not as it should optimally be. Without the criterion of optimality to judge the appropriateness of a decision rule, simulation modelers must rely on empirical confirmation of the structure of their models. In models of small organizations, traditional social science methods may be used. But these methods are infeasible in models of larger systems such as industries or the macroeconomy. This paper shows how direct experiment can be used to confirm or disconfirm the decision rules in simulation models. Direct experiment uses interactive gaming in which human subjects play a role in the system being modeled. The subjects play the game in the same physical and institutional context assumed in the model, and are given the same information set, but are free to make decisions any way they wish. The behavior of the subject can then be directly compared against the behavior produced by the assumed decision rules of the model. An example is described in detail and the correspondence of the experiment to reality is discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- A great interest has been raised recently on chaotic behavior in system dynamics models. This interest is largely justified. The discovery that deterministic systems can show chaotic behavior has deep consequences for the system dynamicist. Among other things, it is well known that strange attractors show a pathological sensitivity to initial conditions. This property impedes the use of a single trayectory (obtained by simulation) as representative of the system behavior. So, the traditional working way of the system dynamicist should be deeply reconsidered if these strange attractors are exhibited by their models. This last is higly possible due to the nonlinear character of these models. Therefore, the system dynamicist should be able to study whether or not those attractors appear in his models. If they appear, then the classical study through the analysis of the trajectory should be rejected, and studies of an stochastic nature -not yet well understood- should be undertaken.
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Tabucanon, M.T. with K. Saeed and Q. Suhail, "Modeling Fuel Pricing Policy and Consumption Patterns"
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- This paper examines the domestic energy consumption in Pakistan in the backdrop of the government's pricing policies using a system dynamics model as an explanatory tool. In the context of policy analysis, the simulated behavior of the system are tested based on various pricing schemes of the competing fuels. The simulation experiments reveal, among others, that Pakistan's energy system structure is such that any policy involving government control over the prices will eventually result in an increase in burden on family income of rural and urban poor classes mainly and urban middle class partially. It seems that the only way to redistribute the burden on family income, minimize the burden on national economy, and also achieve conservation of fuels, is by allowing the price of fuels to be determined by the supply-demand conditions of the market.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1986
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898, a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
- Description:
- We propose a functional design for a software system whose aim is to provide support for an structured methodology of modelling and simulation in System Dynamics. The design follows mainly the ideas of Multifacetted Modelling developed by Zeigler. Our approach has been to give a hierarchical version of DYNAMO and a collection of functions for the handling of simulation elements in an unified system.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- System Dynamic models, being causal simulation models, are in this sense very much like scientific theories. Hence, there is a relationship between validation of such models and verification of scientific theories. In evaluating System Dynamics models, we naturally apply our implicit “norms of scientific inquiry”. Most criticisms of such models hold that System Dynamics does not employ formal “objective”, quantitative model validation procedures. We show through a historical review of Philosophy of Science, that this type of criticism presupposes the logical-empiricist philosophy of science. This philosophy assumes that knowledge is entirely “objective representation” of reality, and that theory justification can be entirely objective, formal, “atomistic” process. According to the more recent “relativist” philosophy of science, on the other hand, knowledge is not “entirely objective Truth”, but it is relative to a given culture, epoch, and worldview. Theories can not be verified (falsified) by entirely formal, reductionist, “confrontational” methods. Completely objective (theory-free) observation is impossible. The act of observing itself requires an assumed theory. Theory justification is therefore a semi-formal, holistic, social, “conversational” process.We discover that these two opposing philosophies of science correspond to two opposing philosophies of model validation. Most critics of System Dynamics seem to assume the traditional empiricist philosophy of science, whereas System Dynamicists mostly agree with the recent relativist philosophy on the question of model validity. We show that these philosophical results do have practical implications for both the System Dynamicists and their critics. Finally, having shown that the relativist philosophy is consistent with System Dynamics practice, we emphasize that such a philosophy of model validity should not lead to a total rejection of formal quantitative tools of model validation. On the contrary, we argue that such tools, appropriately chosen, are most useful when interpreted with the relativist philosophical perspective.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- This paper is based on direct observation of privately and government owned enterprises in Argentina, Italy, Poland, U.S.A. and Yugoslavia.A causal model is presented which is found in all enterprises operating successfully and efficiently over time. The frequently observed inefficiencies in government owned companies are explored with its help. The same method suggests why certain privately owned enterprises exhibit inefficient behaviour while on occasions government owned enterprises are an example of dynamic, foresighted and efficient management.The external pressure groups and their methods for exercising influence through government bureaucracy and other channels on company management are found to be of great importance and so is the legal structure and competitive environment in which management operates. The availability of adequately trained managers is another key element.Several general recommendations are formulated for policies that will ensure efficiency in both government and privately owned corporations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- Advances in computer technology, since DYNAMO first appeared, promise significant developments for System Dynamics modeling and simulation. This paper discusses the future System Dynamics simulation languages as part of a human-engineered, integrated simulation programming environment. Many features of such languages and environments, that may become available in the next five years, are identified and discussed. The relevant advances in Simulation and Computer Science are presented with appropriate modifications in the context of System Dynamics methodology. Some aspects of implementation of such languages and environments are also discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- A study of the management structures for state parks and natural resource protection areas is presented in this paper. This analysis vehicle is a system dynamics model of a typical park encompassing flora and fauna natural resources, cultural heritage resources, and recreational areas. Such systems are complex feedback structures where management goals must be drawn to achieve desired ends within fiscal and personnel constraints. The model is used to suggest methods of measuring the tradeoffs between goal accomplishment and resource constraints. The model was developed through an extensive study of the Parks System of Florida.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- System dynamics modeling has been applied in a wide variety of areas. However, as a means of simulating models in computers, there is no any general DYNAMO compiler system that can be used in various types of computer. The purpose of this paper is to deal with a general compiler software system ZU-DYNAMO, which is used to simulate models in various types of computer with outputs in English or Chinese. Being different from traditional method, a new idea suggested in this paper is the selection of C language instead of assemble language as objective code. The aim of such selection is to make ZU-DYNAMO independent on a particular computer. The overall structure and design principle of the system are presented. The algorithms and techniques used in the system, and the structure of objective code are designed and analysed. The description of extensions of Arrays, FOR card, etc. and the ways to implement them are also given.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- This paper presents a system dynamics model of China's industrial and investment structures. The dynamic behavior of the two structures has been analyzed in the change of demand and supply structure. The model has given special concern to China's limited resources and their allocation to different industries. A resource allocation mechanism is developed and the external robustness of the model is examined to test the control of the resources allocation system.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- By means of the system dynamics theory and approach, A system dynamics model of the forest industry system for certain area is set up, and the future developing tendency of the forest industry system, under the conditions of various developing strategies and policies, is discussed quantitatively using the computer simulation based on the model. This model can provide scientific basis for making a long-term programme for the developing of the forest industry system.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- In this paper we use system dynamics approach to build a policy lab focusing on the exploitation and protection of the rural resources in a southern province of China at first. Then we proceed, after validating the model thoroughly, model-based policy analyses.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- This paper discusses the application of System Dynamics approach to the study of local education development planning which fosters a tentative SD model applicabl to local education development strategy and policy analysis in the urban area of Shanghai. It can help decision making of the local government education authorities in this area. Based on education economic theory and the socio-economic development situation in Shanghai, this model, using DYNAMOIII language, contains four socio-economic sectors – education, economic, social structure and social life, from which 730 variables were attained with 90 level equations 179 rate equations.The present study shows that the simulation model is not only feasible and practical for the study on local education system in Shanghai, but also applicable and useful to other urban areas as well.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- The confliction between the need of R&D expenditure and the limitation of R&D resources in certain time period is a serious issue facing both developing and developed countries. This paper deals with not only the mechanism of interaction between R&D, economy and education systems, also the mechanism and relation among basic research, applied research and development. Two system dynamics models were developed focusing on the above two problems respectively. And, through modeling and policy analysis, some new findings, such as the proper scale and growth-rate of national R&D expenditure, the relation between technology acquisition and self-developing R&D, the proper ratio of R&D expenditure, etc., were accomplished.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- The systems of oil and engine production of our complete planned economy before 1979 and market economy guided by planned economy after1980 are simulated and some conclusions are given in these models.The complete planned economy can't meet the national requiment for oil and engines and the market economy guided by planned economy can develop equilibrumly under the instruction of mixed policies applied to the production of oil and engines.The main items of microeconomics are simulated and some useful plots and conclusions are given. Further study of many fields of macroeconomics and microeconomics is expected.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the CCP, there have been great achievements in the development of economy in our country and the living standard of the people has been raised year by year. However, at this moment of the great boom, there appeared two protound contradictions in the macroeconomy: One is the investment hanger and the other is the consuming expansion. This is a universal persistent ailment in developing cotries.