Recent trends in demographic changes in Germany mainly because of rapid population ageing represented as increasing ratio of older population over total population, have become a major problem for the German government. They are worry if recent trends continues it would cause massive disturbance in Germany socio-economic system, starting from vast amount of pension fund government have to pay to immerse fall of countries GDP. Therefore, by using System Dynamics approach this paper offers systemic point of view on how population structure changed in Germany; it explain why fertility rate in Germany stays low and how economic indicators would trigger changes in population structure. Moreover, it also illustrates feedback effect from population age structure to economic indicators. The result shows that current trends will continue and will not dampen if there is no adequate policy intervention from government. Hence, this paper offers set of policy measures to stabilize increasing ratio of older population. By opening more immigration opportunity for productive age workers, increasing child incentives, increasing pension age, and promoting gender equality as a set of policy measures might exhibit a better result to stabilize the population age structure. This policy measures effect shows desirable result toward expected behavior.
Firms have long used strategic foresight to adjust to fast changing business environments and increasing uncertainties. While strategic foresight on a corporate level is rather common, approaches addressing the network perspective are still rare. Documented attempts within the last few years to combine different foresight methods indicate a need for integrated approaches. Methods to communicate and discuss future thoughts between strategists and decision makers engaged in foresight processes gain importance. The goal of this paper is threefold. First, to present a strategic foresight approach that evaluates key drivers of future changes. This evaluation is conducted based on a firm's business model by considering the network perspective. Second, the application of the approach is shown with focus on the development of a system dynamics model during a group model building process. Third, a generic system dynamics model for performing strategic foresight in production networks is introduced.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether stock/flow failures persist in naturalistic decision making environments. A tangible stock/flow experiment is used in this study, which asks participants to pour a certain amount of water into a glass through a funnel in an as short time as possible. Findings are that people on average do not perform better in a tangible stock/flow task than in a computerized or paper-based test of a comparable task. In addition, individual performance in the tangible task cannot be related to performance in a similar paper-pencil stock/flow task. An implication of this study is that naturalistic stock/flow tasks are as difficult for humans to control as more abstract tasks. Further research should address individual differences between the two modes of task (tangible vs. paper-based). A limitation of this study is the usage of one tangible stock/flow task only. The value of this paper lies in the combination of a standard test with a tangible experiment addressing the same cognitive capabilities.
Different approaches to model feedbacks in financial systems are assessed based on requirements for the conceptualization of the feedback dynamics. Given the non-linear, behavior driven, and interconnected characteristics of systemic financial feedbacks (SFFs), modeling concepts from System Dynamics (SD) theory provide appropriate and attractive features. Surprisingly, few SD models exist to explain systemic financial feedbacks. The scarcity of SD modeling for SFFs may be attributed to the lack of required economically-sound foundations for theoretical modeling. This paper considers a conceptual framework for SFFs that emerges from the synthesis of formal principles of economics and SD. In doing so, this study links existing SFF models to concepts of SD and provides suggestions for further modeling.