Customary theories of crime follow a cause-and-effect view, that is, crime is explained as a function of various weighted factors. This causal bias is prevalent across supposedly dissimilar theories of crime. Moreover, these theories tend to be universalistic: they seek to explain crime independently of context; crime is supposed to be causally produced in the same way in the United States, Colombia, Norway or Namibia. Moreover, such universality is constant across time, the causes of crime are the same one hundred years ago and today. A system dynamics conceptualization can contribute a different view. Here we show the possibility of having dynamic theories of crime, that is, theories based on feedback structures that explain complex patterns of behavior. Moreover, we also show the prospect of developing indigenous theories according to particular societal environments. The paper illustrates these points with a possible theory of crime for the Colombian society. The benefits of such an approach are discussed
A common first step for building a system dynamics model is the selection of variables. This is one of the most important activities in the construction process because they constitute the building blocks upon which the explanations for complex patterns of behavior are proposed based on the interrelations of those variables. This work aims to present an option to systematically help to guide the selection of key variables integrating quantitative and qualitative analysis. A current project in Colombia that develops a dynamic conceptualization for Solid Waste Management policy-making is used as an example.
This research estimates the number of welfare institutions for the elderly and predicts the shortage of welfare facilities in the future as a result of Korean societys move toward a super aged society. Although the population of Korea is predicted to decrease, the elderly population is expected to increase in the future; thus it is evident that a shortage of welfare facilities will occur. Based on this forecasting result presented within this paper, the Korean government should prepare for entrance into an aged society by expanding the social infrastructure through increased support to residential and medical welfare institutions. An analysis of the results tells us that additional 1,368 residential and 10,956 medical welfare facilities will be needed to satisfy the future demands of the increasing elderly population, compared to the number of the two types of welfare facilities in 2007.
Seoul citizens are currently suffering from high housing price. Home prices have risen more rapidly than salaries so owning a housing unit (apartment, condominium, or single-family home) in Seoul is becoming more difficult than ever. Therefore, this research examines the behavior of average Seoul citizen in owning housing unit in Seoul, Korea, particularly in terms of the length of time required to afford a house unit. This research estimates that it will optimally take about 11.5 years after getting a job to own housing unit in Seoul that is currently valued at $300,000 where the optimal growth rate of housing price is 3% in cases where the growth rate of income is 2.97% and consumption prices are increasing at a rate of 2.95%.
Complex problems such as sustainability, energy and water shortage, biodiversity food and global security are impacted by many stakeholders and have multiple drivers and interconnected dimensions: social, economic, environmental, political, behavioural, governance and leadership. Traditional linear, single-dimensional, symptom focused solutions are insufficient to deliver sustainable outcomes. These challenges require systemic and collaborative multi-stakeholder responses. Learning Lab (LLab) is a unique process and methodology for integrated cross-sectoral decision making, planning and collaboration in dealing with complex multi-stakeholder problems. The LLab comprises six cyclical steps whereby decision makers and stakeholders come together to develop a shared understanding of complex issues and to create innovative and sustainable solutions. The Learning Lab methodology is a generic process which can be applied to solve complex problems and to create consensus in a variety of domains and contexts, social, economic, environmental and cultural. The wide range and diversity of the global LLabs is both a challenge as well as a rich source of mutual learning and progress. This paper discusses the theory of the Learning Labs and demonstrates its application in UNESCO Biosphere Reserves in Viet Nam and Cambodia. The implications of this exciting development for the system dynamics community are also discussed.
Rapid scientific progress over the past century has been largely attributed to the reductionist school of thought. Holism has only re-entered mainstream thought recently via the increasing popularity and advocate of systems thinking. Eastern philosophy, in contrast, has always embraced and manifested holism in every conceivable facet of life: from the quotidian routine of meal preparation; to Taguchi quality control; and to the life-saving application of Eastern medicine. These beget an interesting question: is it possible to relate systems thinking to Eastern philosophy from its various incarnations? This paper seeks to answer this question partially via the delineation of the Eastern martial arts practice, an application of Eastern philosophy. Our findings indicate that the language of systems thinking can potentially be a most natural medium for such cross-cultural knowledge transfer.
The human behavior aspect of pandemic prevention and mitigation involve uncertainties manifested as a range of responses, from the extreme to the indifferent. Relationships between variables influencing human behavior are usually described qualitatively, and as such do not suffice for stock and flow models. These uncertainties can slow down the modelling process considerably, thus limiting the effectiveness of a model-based approach in time-critical studies such as an impending pandemic outbreak. Our proposed approach utilizes fuzzy modelling concepts integrated within the system dynamics modelling framework to create a rapid model prototyping process of developing a pandemic dynamics model. This can facilitate quantitative analysis for policy making in pandemic mitigation interventions. We use the recent H1N1 pandemic in Singapore as a case example to demonstrate the practical usefulness of our approach.
This paper presents a Bioenergy Systems Sustainability Assessment and Management (BIOSSAM) model. BIOSSAM model was developed as an assessment tool to provide insights on the implications of developing biofuel production programs in South Africa, which is critical for sustainable energy development. As a case study, BIOSSAM model was applied to simulate biodiesel production proposals in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Development of biodiesel production in the Eastern Cape is associated with the promotion of socio-economic development such as job-creation, which in turn influences the economic growth of the Province. Biodiesel production development is influenced by a number of factors such as producer/supplier profitability, which is influenced by several factors such as: land availability to supply raw materials, feedstock prices, government regulations/incentives. To explore the extent of achieving the socio-economic goals from biodiesel production development, BIOSSAM model provides a framework for understanding the causal-loop/feedback structure and dynamics of this emerging industry.
This paper considers the problem of managing process improvement when resources are constrained. The paper constructs a system dynamics model that formalizes the critical interaction between using resources to produce primary output and investing resources in process improvement as means to increase throughput. The model incorporates learning so that the productivity of doing improvement activities grows as workers accumulate experience with new methods. The model enables a rigorous examination into how the feedback structure of process improvement presents challenges to people in a system facing the dual pressure to produce output and to build capability. Simulation analysis highlights the dynamics of the tradeoff between production and improvement and demonstrates the existence of a tipping point that distinguishes enduring high levels of production from modest or no improvement. Results show the superior performance of counter-intuitive policy orientations that favor learning.