Online Content

11. Wolstenholme, Eric with David Monk and David Todd, "The contribution of system dynamics to cost benefit analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9306th14x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:37Z
Description:
This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues, surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers, whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in strategic planning.

12. Winz, Ines with Gary Brierley and Robert Cavana, "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Integrated Water Resources Management"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9c67x5698?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:36Z
Description:
In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in water resources management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management, urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of system dynamics in these areas over the past 40 years. From this review of the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics.

13. Winz, Ines with Gary Brierley and Kambiz Maani, "Participatory Methods in Environmental System Dynamics Projects"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/fj236k00q?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:35Z
Description:
Today there is widespread agreement that participatory methods are useful if not legally required to understand and effectively address environmental management problems. What participatory methods should be used in which situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently addressed questions. There is limited understanding about the interconnections between project purpose, participatory methods and their application. Participation methods are often selected on the basis of familiarity or cost considerations. We argue that these trade-offs may compromise the potential outcomes and effectiveness of a project. To address these shortcomings we summarise current knowledge and understanding in the public participation literature. System dynamics projects can benefit substantially from public participation particularly through participative modelling. Much research effort focuses on group model building. For projects where group model building is not a prudent choice, we suggest and discuss alternatives.

14. Wilks, Jason with Weishuang Qu and Matteo Pedercini, "A Dynamic Analysis of Organized Crime in Jamaica"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/5999nn315?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:33Z
Description:
In March 2006, the Government of Jamaica engaged the Millennium Institute to assist in the development of a modern planning tool with the capability to integrate relevant sectors of the Jamaican society. An important component of the model is the sector for organized crime behaviour in Jamaica. The purpose of this paper is to explain the development of the organized crime sector within the T-21 Jamaica model and demonstrate the possible utility of system dynamics in facilitating discussions on public policy. The organized crime sector examines the conversion of young, unemployed males living in impoverished, urban areas into gang members and some possible outcomes of this behaviour. The validity of the model is tested by its ability to match Jamaica's historical data for gang-related murders and shootings.Possible interventions are explored with the model suggesting that social interventions would have a more immediate impact on reducing crime rates but increased investment in the security forces would eventually lead to an even greater reduction in crime in the long run.

15. Wheat, David, "The Feedback Method of Teaching Macroeconomics: Is it Effective? (Dana Meadows Award Winner)"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/z890sc10x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:32Z
Description:
The conventional method of teaching macroeconomics to undergraduates relies on static graphs, an approach with documented pedagogical problems. In contrast, the feedback method uses feedback loop diagrams and interactive computer simulation models. This paper describes the feedback method and reports on four experiments designed to test its effectiveness. Two experiments examined student preferences for methods of learning macroeconomics; for example, using static graphs or a feedback loop diagram. The experimental designs were quite different, but the results were the same—a significant majority preferred the feedback method. The most commonly cited reason: feedback loops enable students to visualize an economic process. The third and fourth experiments addressed the performance question. In the third experiment, students showed more understanding of GDP when they had access to a stock-and-flow feedback diagram of the economy. In the final experiment, students using feedback loop diagrams displayed more understanding of business cycle dynamics than those who had access to a conventional aggregate supply and demand graph. Teaching undergraduates to search for feedback structure in the economy and using computer simulation to connect structure with behavior appears to be a promising method for teaching macroeconomics.

16. Weitert, Christian, "Analysis of Investor Behavior in an Artificial Stock Market"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/vt1513089?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:31Z
Description:
Building upon previous work in the field of behavioral finance and artificial stock markets, a model incorporating discrete and continuous interrelations is developed. Three different investor types are modeled as individual agents: fundamental analysts, technical analysts and noise traders. They differ in their intrinsic pricing mechanism and represent trading strategies that are observed in financial markets. The developed structure is able to reproduce the formation of speculative bubbles and other stochastical anomalies that are characteristic for financial time series.

17. Weil, Henry, "Application of System Dynamics to Corporate Strategy: An Evolution of Issues and Frameworks"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/r781x1223?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:30Z
Description:
This paper discusses five landmark projects which highlighted issues and produced frameworks that became important building blocks in the application of System Dynamics to corporate strategy. The early models were primarily at the level of the firm. The first model described in the paper captures the tension among conflicting performance objectives and shows how the conflicts impact mid-term company performance. The second model represents the behavior of an R&D organization as it responds to changing pressures and direction from corporate management. Over time the focus shifted to market behavior and competition. The third model explains powerful long-term dynamics that lead to "commoditization" of products and services. Recent work analyzed the social dynamics of markets, e.g., as they affect innovation and technology substitution. The fourth model in the paper represents the fundamental dynamics of innovative industries, building on an extensive body of research and publications. The final model focuses on the market impacts of social factors, e.g., trust, fashion, the characteristics of lead users, how trends are perceived and extrapolated, the flow of information, bandwagon effects, and network effects. The most important lessons are about the critical roles of organizational, social, and psychological factors in important business decisions and competitive behaviors.

18. Weber, Lars, "Understanding Recent Developments in Growth Theory"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3j333m251?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:29Z
Description:
The growth theory has, through the so-called ‘endogenous’ or new growth theory, taken on decisive impulses. This contribution delivers an overview of the various extensions without going into detail about the mathematical observations and the main focus on supply-side orientated approaches. The main goals of the growth theory are to understand the exponential climb of the population’s income or also the per‑capita income and to draw conclusions for policy makers. The paper uses stock-flow-graphs to visualize the major loops. Because changes tend to be incremental I adopt standard textbook models first. All models are used in economic teaching with additional simulation and extensions. Later on students learn to modify those models.

19. Wakeland, Wayne, "Modeling Fishery Regulation & Compliance: A Case Study of the Yellowtail Rockfish"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/xk81k437g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:28Z
Description:
Motivated by declining fish populations and the apparent inability of regulatory agencies to manage important fisheries, this research measures the accuracy of a fishery model that explicitly models the regulatory process and the resulting degree of compliance by fishers. The method involved careful review and enhancement of a prior model with a more limited regulatory sub model,and then measuring, for both models, the mean absolute error of model calculated values for historical spawning biomass, acceptable biological catch, and harvest. The most recent five years of data were held back so that model prediction error could also be computed. Results indicated that although the fitness error for the enhanced model was significantly less than the prior model (23% vs. 38%), predictions were improved only for one of the three measures. The implications for researchers seeking to endogenously model fishery management processes are sobering. Policy makers on the other hand will likely see the results as support for their instinctual skepticism regarding policy models.

20. Voyer, John with Susan Bassi Brown, Nathan Gage, Dmitry Kovalenko and Travis Williams, "A System Dynamics Approach to Improving An Advising System for Business School Undergraduates"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2007 July 29-2007 August 2
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/dn39xk20x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:45:26Z
Description:
A School of Business located in the northeast United States annually administers the AACSB/EBI Undergraduate Business Exit Survey to all its graduating seniors. One area that has consistently received low marks has been advising. The Associate Dean of the Business School wanted to address the situation and see how the system could be improved. Through interviews with the Associate Dean and the advising staff, a consulting team compiled information about the system and identified the major problem as congestion in the system. Recommendations included changing the criteria for students required to use the system, simplifying the curriculum, better promoting the advising function to students, increasing the use of automated advising tools, expanding the length of the advising period, and adding advising staff or having faculty do advising. So far, the School of Business has adopted only one of these recommendations—curricular simplification—which may improve the situation as time passes. The School is currently examining other options, especially changing the criteria for required advising and having the faculty get involved in advising.