In this paper by means of a simple system dynamics model, we analyze the dynamics of housing affordability in the context of real estate market of Iran. To do this we define an affordability index according to Iran's economic situation and show that in the absence of effective financial infrastructures, this index declines over time. To confront this problem, we analyze supply-side and demand-side housing policies. Moving into industrial methods of construction and increasing the volume of the construction loans are among supply-side housing policies. Also focusing on macroeconomic policies to reduce economic fluctuations and risk of investments in other markets is among demand-side housing policies.
Guided by economic models suggesting that growth can be stepped-up by increasing resources for investment, developing country governments have often resorted to borrowing to supplement revenue hence the accumulation of public debt. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it is to develop a dynamic model that identifies the fundamental structure of the public debt accumulation process. Second, it is to identify the mechanisms that generate public debt and their relative contribution to public debt accumulation
Fiscal policy can be multidimensional in nature. On the one hand, it addresses socio-economic development, and on the other, it deals with ensuring fiscal sustainability. The ability of the government to design fiscal policies to achieve the twin goal of socio-economic development and fiscal sustainability requires understanding the social, economic and public debt impact of the fiscal policy. This can only be achieved by contemplating on the complex relationships between the social sector, economic sector and public finance sector of the economy. Even though existing models and techniques offer insights about the impact of fiscal policy on socio-economic development and fiscal sustainability, they lack sufficient causal explanation of the dynamic impact of fiscal policy on socio-economic development and fiscal sustainability. This paper develops a causal socio-economic model to help analyze the impact of fiscal policy on socio-economic development and fiscal sustainability. We concluded that the balanced budget fiscal policy is the most workable fiscal policy for the government to achieve the twin goal of socio-economic development and fiscal sustainability.
Absolute poverty is all pervasive in most developing countries and particularly in Africa (Gore 2002; Sachs, Mcarthur et al. 2004) and Ghana is no exception. For instance, the growth rate per capita for sub-Saharan Africa was negative in the 1980s, i.e. about -2% per annum and about -1% per annum during the 1990s (Birdsall, Claessens et al. 2002). Most common explanation for why countries fail to achieve economic growth focuses on corrupt leadership, inability to make productive use of loans and culture that impede modern development (Korner, Maass et al. 1987; Sachs 2005). However, in recent years, the idea that poverty itself causes economic stagnation has gain attraction and engages the attention of researchers. In this paper, we developed a system dynamics model based on the system dynamics adaptation of poverty traps and debt overhang theory to establish the causal structural mechanism that explains poverty traps and determine internal poverty trends and its link with public debt accumulation. We find out that the decline of per worker income in Ghana is attributed to significant reduction of investment coupled with high population growth. The policy analysis proposed increasing investment,(preferably FDI) as the best policy to reduce poverty and public debt accumulation.
As practiced in our group at Albany, we envision Group Model Building as a stool supported by three complementary legs, Teamwork, Scripts, and Improvised Facilitation. The first two of these clusters of principles and skills have been previously described in the published literature. Our purpose with this paper is to describe how we use improvisational principles and techniques to guide our facilitated interactions with teams of managers engaged in Group Model Building.
A pandemic is likely to occur in the near future, and this could cause significant disruptions in the human population. Avian influenza is such an example, as it can potentially evolve to transmit from human to human, and spread very fast to become a world-wide epidemic in very a short period of time. In order to prepare for such a disaster and to develop global mitigation strategies for society, the government as well as enterprises needs to understand how widely diseases might spread, and how quickly the magnitude of the infection might grow as well. As the world has rapidly evolved to become a more global chain, the populace contact, social networking and transportation enables diseases to spread more easily than before. In this paper, we present a disease spread model that combines compartmental epidemiological model with a connected network of geographical locations and airports using the system dynamics method. We also quantify how various mitigation actions would affect the spread of disease. This model is intended to be used for firms studying the possible effects of pandemic disease on their businesses. Various scenarios of disease spreads are simulated and examined in this research.
The human induced climate change is one of the most serious and difficult environmental issue to manage that has emerged in the recent decades. Climate change is a good example of a dynamic systems problem. It embodies several delays, feedbacks, nonlinearities and uncertainties in its dynamically complex structure. Therefore, the need for and the usefulness of descriptive and simple models explaining these dynamic complexities are undisputed. The aim of this study is to construct a dynamic simulation model for this end. The model integrates several components of the climate system. It includes the carbon cycle, radiative forcing of CO2, CH4, N2O and induced temperature change as well as the temperature feedback affecting carbon exchange between land and the atmosphere. It also proposes a representation of the permafrost melting and methane feedback processes.
There are some similarities between Hegelian philosophy and system dynamics theory. Hegel used a systematic view for his theory and generalized it to all categories. We try to express the similarity between the Hegels theory and system dynamics modes. In addition, a system dynamics tool as Causal loop diagram is employed to explain the dynamic trend of Hegels system. At last, we simulate an example of Hegels philosophy by system dynamics model.