Shrinking cycle time with concurrent engineering can make projects more difficult to manage. However, the extent, nature and conditions of the causal relationship between concurrence and manageability are not well understood. This study uses Degree of Concurrence and Degree of Concurrence Relationship Curvature as two measurements of dynamic concurrence based on Process Concurrence Relationship, an improved tool for describing and modeling concurrence, and uses the standard deviation of Process Work Queue Acceleration as Manageability Index to model project manageability. Single-phase development process model is applied as a data collection tool to investigate the causal relationship between concurrence and manageability. Two hypotheses were developed to test the causal relationship separately with the two different experiments - Linear and Nonlinear. The study finds a significant inverse relationship between degree of concurrence and project manageability with linear concurrence relationship. When the concurrence relationship was changed from linear to nonlinear the relationship became quite unexpected. The results improve the understanding of the causal relationship between dynamic concurrence and manageability.
Outsourcing maintenance to third-party contractors has become an increasingly popular option for manufacturers to achieve tactical and/or strategic objectives. Though simple in concept, maintenance outsourcing is difficult in execution, especially in a cost-sensitive environment. This project examines the Full Service business under ABB Ltd to understand the key factors that drive the success of an outsourced maintenance operation. We present a qualitative causal loop diagram developed based on the case study of Kinleith Pulp and Paper Mill in New Zealand. The diagram describes the interconnections among various technical, economic, relationship, and humanistic factors and shows how cost-cutting initiatives can frequently undermine labor relationship and tip the plant into the vicious cycle of reactive, expensive work practices. The model also explains how Kinleith achieved a remarkable turnaround under ABB, yielding high performance and significant improvements in labor relations. A case study of Tasman Pulp and Paper Mill provides a contrasting case where success has been more difficult. Results point to the importance of creating sufficient resources (slack) to implement improvement activities and pace implementation based on pre-existing dynamics on site.
Goals play significant role in decision making. Most organizations can be assumed to set and then pursue certain goals either stated explicitly or assumed implicitly. In realistic models, the goal is not a constant but a variable: it can erode due to persistent failure or it can evolve further as a result of confidence caused by success With respect to many different types of goal dynamics, there exist some models of limited and linear goal erosion dynamics in the literature. We extend the existing models to obtain a comprehensive model of goal dynamics, by including organizational capacity limits on performance improvement rate, performance decay when there is no effort, time constraints and pressures, motivation and frustration effects. The model constitutes a general theory of goal dynamics in organizations. Our model also demonstrates some strategies to avoid the undesirable goal and performance erosion in various unfavorable, risky goal seeking environments.
This paper tries to model a dynamic determination of foreign exchange rate
in an open macroeconomy in which
goods and services are freely traded and financial capital flows efficiently
for highest returns.
For this purpose it becomes necessary to employ a new method
contrary to standard methods of dealing with a foreign sector as
adjunct to macroeconomy;
that is, an introduction of another macroeconomy as a foreign sector.
Within this new framework of open macroeconomy, transactions among
domestic and foreign sectors are handled according to the principle of
accounting system dynamics developed by the author, and
the balance of payments is attained.
For the sake of simplicity of analyzing foreign exchange dynamics,
macro variables such as GDP, its price level and interest rate are
treated as outside parameters.
Then, eight scenarios are produced and examined
to see how exchange rate, trade balance and financial investment, etc.
respond to such outside parameters.
To our surprise, expectations of foreign exchange rate turn out to play
a crucial role for destabilizing trade balance and financial investment.
The impact of official intervention on foreign exchange and a path to
default is also discussed.
While the focus of the project management literature has been on the management of single projects, the management of multiproject environments is largely neglected. In this research I am focusing on mutiproject environments which exist within a single firm (hereafter called Alpha). Through my investigation in this multiproject environment I explored root causes for project inefficiencies which rather than being possible to attribute to source within each single project boundary, are caused by the effects which I term them systemic effects. System effects are dynamics triggered by the complex linear , nonlinear and time delayed interaction of large number of factors. I develop a model which explains the dynamics through which the systemic effects deteriorate the performance of the projects in this organization. The model is useful in creating awareness among the managers about the lack of holistic approach in decision making and the effects of suboptimum decisions in this environment.
This paper describes the application of system dynamics to assist decision making in the reallocation of resources within a specialist mental health trust in south London. Mental health service providers are under increasing pressure to both reduce their own costs and to move resources upstream in mental health patient pathways to facilitate treating more people, whilst not compromising service quality. The investigation focuses on the use of the model to examine the case for converting an existing specialist service ward in a mental health hospital into a triage ward, where patients are assessed and prioritised during a short stay for either discharge or onward admission to a normal ward. Various policies for the transition are studied together with the implications for those patients needing post hospital services and relocation within the community. The model suggests that the introduction of a triage ward could meet the strategic requirement of a 10% shift away from institutional care and into community services. The paper includes a number of statements from the management team involved on the benefits of system dynamics to their thinking.
This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues, surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers, whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in strategic planning.
In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in water resources management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management, urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of system dynamics in these areas over the past 40 years. From this review of the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics.
Today there is widespread agreement that participatory methods are useful if not legally required to understand and effectively address environmental management problems. What participatory methods should be used in which situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently addressed questions. There is limited understanding about the interconnections between project purpose, participatory methods and their application. Participation methods are often selected on the basis of familiarity or cost considerations. We argue that these trade-offs may compromise the potential outcomes and effectiveness of a project. To address these shortcomings we summarise current knowledge and understanding in the public participation literature.
System dynamics projects can benefit substantially from public participation particularly through participative modelling. Much research effort focuses on group model building. For projects where group model building is not a prudent choice, we suggest and discuss alternatives.
In March 2006, the Government of Jamaica engaged the Millennium Institute to assist in the development of a modern planning tool with the capability to integrate relevant sectors of the Jamaican society. An important component of the model is the sector for organized crime behaviour in Jamaica. The purpose of this paper is to explain the development of the organized crime sector within the T-21 Jamaica model and demonstrate the possible utility of system dynamics in facilitating discussions on public policy. The organized crime sector examines the conversion of young, unemployed males living in impoverished, urban areas into gang members and some possible outcomes of this behaviour. The validity of the model is tested by its ability to match Jamaica's historical data for gang-related murders and shootings.Possible interventions are explored with the model suggesting that social interventions would have a more immediate impact on reducing crime rates but increased investment in the security forces would eventually lead to an even greater reduction in crime in the long run.