The purpose of this contribution is to make the idea of modeling as theory-building operational. We conceive of the modeling process as a theory-building process, thereby opening up a new perspective on the methodology of modeling in the social sciences. By reconceptualizing the notion of modeling, we hope to convey the advantages of more conceptual thinking in management. Practitioners could gain effectiveness in dealing with external complexity if they would espouse the modeling task as a disciplined reflection and communication geared toward the elaboration of theories. This contribution is based on projects in which System Dynamics models for real-world issues were constructed together with corporate partners. One of these modeling ventures is described in detail to make transparent the isomorphic nature of theory-building and formal modeling, and illustrate the approach of modeling as theory-building.
System dynamics models are built to assist people in understanding and solving complex and dynamic problems. However, the actual outreach of the models is limited as there is still no effective way identified to present dynamic problems and the associated models to a broader audience. Experimental data as well as cognitive load theory suggest that learning about and performance in complex dynamic systems could be improved by enhancing problem descriptions with simulation elements facilitating interactive exploration of dynamic features of the problem. We replicate experiments by Moxnes (2004) on management of reindeer lichen winter pastures, extending the task instructions by an interactive applet featuring dynamics of non-linear growth rate of lichen. In contrast to previous observations when the subjects misperceived gravely the systems dynamics at the outset, our results suggest that with the interactive applet the misperceptions of dynamics can be reduced already in the first trial.
This paper introduces a new method that facilitates the stability analysis of system dynamics models. The method is based on the concepts of asymptotic stability and Accumulated Deviations from Equilibrium (ADE) convergence. We prove several theorems that show that ADE convergence of a state variable will make its trajectory approach asymptotic stability. Achieving ADE convergence requires the solution of a policy optimization problem. We use an approach called Behavior Decomposition Weights (BDW) to reduce the search space associated with that optimization problem. We also demonstrate this method on two examples: a linear "inventory-workforce" model and a non-linear "mass business cycle model". These examples illustrate the features of this method and the potential for the development of efficient tools to improve the quality of the optimization policies.
The purpose of this study is to understand the dynamic effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission restrictions and energy price policies on two highly energy intensive sectors of industry; iron&steel industry and cement industry over a 12 year period. Model is designed so that critical decisions such as growth and efficiency investments are based upon profit and extra costs incurred due to CO2 emissions. The profit margin, CO2 cost over revenue and Energy Cost Share in Total Annual Production are important key variables in the model.
One obstacle in the way of enduring process improvement is the necessity to gain and sustain a momentum towards change in organizations. Building upon previous work in the field of operations management and system dynamics, a generic model is outlined that mimics the implementation of several process improvement programs in an industrial organization. For this purpose, the model exhibits a conceptual distinction between particular improvement programs (e.g., total quality management, total productive maintenance) and the overall improvement process. The latter is represented by a continuous PDCA-cycle that connects organizational capabilities on process improvement, development of commitment towards change on different hierarchical levels, and managerial improvement goals with several improvement programs. Among other findings, the simulation experiments show that goal-setting is a crucial aspect in continuous process improvement processes thatif wrongly appliedcan stall the organizational commitment to change. Furthermore analyses reveal that plants should strive for process improvement patterns that exhibit higher organizational rather than technical complexity. The value of the conducted approach lies in the explicit analysis of the interplay between goal-setting, organizational learning, program commitment, and process improvement programs.
Medicines use involves the prescription, transcription, dispensing, administration and monitoring of medicines. These processes are prone to error resulting in the misuse of medicines. Medicines misuse associated with prescription errors and poor compliance by the elderly living at home is a growing concern. This problem will worsen with the ageing population, development of new drugs and drug indications, shortage in the general practitioner workforce, poor communication between patients and healthcare providers and poor information management.
This article presents some insights from ongoing implementation of BPs Operating Management System (OMS) in Alaska. BP aspires to improve the way it operates and become a sector leader in personal safety, process safety, environmental management and operations excellence. In this paper, the OMS implementation is examined as a process of organizational change. One of the early stages of that process is to build understanding of the organizational change among those responsible for implementation. For that purpose a System Dynamics model and model based simulator were used. The article presents an overview of the model, which is based on established theories of transformation. Some simulation scenarios were examined to illustrate the results of various policies, and to test ideas thought to increase the probability of sustainable change. Implications for organizational learning are discussed.