Online Content

231. Groesser, Stefan, "Modeling the Health Insurance System of Germany: A System Dynamics Approach"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/vm40z8948?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:39Z
Description:
The German Health Insurance System is balanced on the edge. Decision makers seem not successful in developing and implementing sustainable health policies, which ensure at least a balanced health insurance fund. Highly dynamic factors influence the health insurance fund situation and complicate the decision making. The System Dynamics Methodology is used to examine first possible causes of the enduring problem. In the formal simulation model, we include among other variables the population dynamics, personal income, contribution fraction and health expenses per capita as well as behavioral states of the agents. Second, the model is used to conduct simulation-based policy testing to find improved decision rules. The policy ‘expenses reduction pressure’ forces the government to reduce health insurance ex-penses per request. It can improve the health insurance system situation best. The result will be a reduction of the health insurance fund shortfall. Other policies worsen the problem sig-nificantly due to increased oscillatory tendency in the health insurance system. As result of the study, the different policies are discussed separately. Keywords: Soft System Dynamics, German Health Insurance, Sustainable Policy, Co-Payment Policy

232. Graham, Alan with Jeremy Godfrey, "Achieving Win-Win in a Regulatory Dispute: Managing 3G Competition"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/n296xh01k?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:38Z
Description:
Hutchison Telecom Hong Kong had a problem. The telecoms Regulator, OFTA, wanted to take away some of its spectrum and use it to add yet another competitor into this already highly-competed market. Hutchison perceived that the proposed action would not only be unfavourable for Hutchison, but also for the consumer. But this view hadn’t been accepted by the Regulator, when expressed in the form of traditional regulatory arguments. This case study describes how Hutchison commissioned and used a System Dynamics simulator of the Hong Kong wireless markets (2G and 3G, voice and data) to rigorously and transparently quantify the situation. The simulator used 1) interviews with many experts and stakeholders, including the regulator, 2) confidential company data, appropriately protected, 3) judicious calibration against 2G history and 3G plans, 4) optimization of 3G competitor’s pricing and investment strategies to “game out” future market evolution, under different regulatory decisions. Sensitivity testing showed that the remaining uncertainties did not alter the fundamental results: The regulator’s proposed action would not benefit the public. After due consideration, OFTA dropped its plans and will not bring in more 3G carriers. Both Hutchison and OFTA have done well for their respective stakeholders.

233. Goodman, Michael, "Special Moments - Special Places"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3r075c07n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:37Z
Description:
Cormorant fisherman on the Li River, China…. Farmers tilling the rice terraces of Bali, Indonesia… A red seahorse in the waters of St Vincent in the Southern Caribbean… Alpenglow in the Dolomite mountains of Northern Italy… these are some of the remarkable moments and amazing places that I have been privileged to photograph in my world travels and am delighted to share with you. They are all part of the wonderful but fragile systems that make up our world.

234. Gonzalez, Jose, "Special Convened Session: Critical Infrastructure"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3x8175269?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:36Z
Description:
The session consists of four papers: Real Time Diagnostics of Problem-Solving Behavior for System Dynamics-Based Business Simulations; Sensitivity Analysis of an Infectious Disease Model; Leveraging a High Fidelity Switched Network Model to Inform a System Dynamics Model of the Telecommunications Infrastructure; and Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System. The first paper concerned supporting learning in and about complex problems. The paper describes the diagnostics of the problem solving process, i.e. of the information-retrieval and decision-making processes, as prerequisite for effective “feedback” to the learner. The second paper describes a model of infectious diseases that has been developed for integration within a larger simulation structure to assess the interdependencies of critical infrastructures. This paper presents the preliminary sensitivity analyses of the effects of inputs to the infectious disease model on the calculated consequences. The third paper summarizes the results of a collaborative effort with Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies to leverage a detailed switched network simulation to inform the telecommunications system dynamics model in a Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS). The fourth paper describes CIP/DSS and simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their interdependencies.

235. Goncalves, Paulo with John Sterman, "Overordering Games in Supply Chains"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/nc5815449?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:35Z
Description:
When demand exceeds supply, customers often hedge against shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. The resulting demand bubbles creates instability leading to excess capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, and financial and reputation losses for suppliers and customers. This research contributes to the understanding of phantom demand caused by shortages by developing a formal model of the relationship between a single supplier and multiple retailers. The research combines simulation and game theory to explore equilibrium strategies that arise as a result of a dynamic game. When retailers must commit to a single strategy in a static retailer game, our analyses suggest that a prisoner’s dilemma arises if appropriate incentives are not in place, allowing retailers to reach equilibrium with an aggressive ordering strategy (inflating their orders and later canceling them) even though a conservative ordering strategy (ordering just what they need) is mutually more profitable. The conservative strategy dominates the aggressive one when sufficient incentives are in place. In addition, we investigate a number of strategies (e.g. tit-for-tat, severe punishment, etc.) for retailers in an infinitely repeated game and we explore the static and dynamic games for the supplier-retailer interactions.

236. Glass-Husain, Will, "Workshop: Making your Simulation Run on the World Wide Web"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/vx022023n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:34Z
Description:
This workshop discusses how advances in technology allow modelers to develop and share their own dynamic simulations on the web. New tools have made creating web interfaces to system dynamics models simpler and inexpensive, but model developers still face hurdles developing web simulations because of the design expectations of Web users. Simulations that run in web browsers have the advantages of global accessibility, simple distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation usage. However, simulations previously delivered in other formats need to be modified in order to effectively use the online medium. Simulations need to engage the user, be simple to navigate, and correspond to the user's learning objectives. This workshop will consist of presentation and a hands on workshop. During the presentation, Will Glass-Husain will demonstrate how to create web simulations and discuss commonly occurring web simulation design challenges and potential solutions. The session will also include a hands-on session where participants will create a paper outline of potential simulation design for a model of their choosing.

237. Getmansky, Mila, "Limits of Arbitrage: Understanding How Hedge Funds Fail"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/0p096q95j?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:33Z
Description:
Even if arbitrage opportunities are found in a statistical sense, they might not be exploitable due to unexpected widening of spreads. This paper models such a case in the framework of a hedge fund. Specifically, Long Term Capital Management is presented as a case study. In particular, we calculate the likelihood of hedge fund failure and survival given different statistical arbitrage opportunities and hedge fund risk management decisions. Dynamic relationships between a hedge fund, dealer, and market (investor) are modeled.

238. Georgantzas, Nicholas with Nadezhda Peeva and Howard Weinberg, "Disruptive Innovation Diffusion"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/qr46rj83b?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:32Z
Description:
An exploratory system dynamics (SD) model presents disruptive innovation diffusion as a replicable process that can spawn business growth for d, Inc., a company that offers an over the air digital subscription TV service. Building on diffusion processes in epidemiology, marketing and sociology, the eight-sector SD model shows customer switching in the high-and low-end and non-consumption markets that disruptive innovators exploit. As extreme-condition scenarios test its robustness, the model shows performance results for the multiple market penetration and defense tactics that disrupter and incumbent firms execute through time. In a relentless hunt for superior performance and a sea of external-change triggers and internal-change levers, d, Inc. takes on cable operators who overlook low-end markets and devote their attention to and invest in higher-end tiers, their service tailored to more demanding customers. But low-end markets cannot absorb sustaining innovations that exceed what non-consumers need or know how to exploit. The results show that despite the high environmental turbulence, market risk and uncertainty facing d, Inc., being in a market that blends its commercial and technological competence with discontinuity and instability transients suggests ample opportunity for sustainable disruptive growth, even if markets contract.

239. Ge, Zhou with Yonggen Yuan, "Systematic Dynamics Thinking in Innovative Teaching"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/0z709d43g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:30Z
Description:
There are two parts.The first,Systematic dynamics and students innovational activities.The second ,Systems dynamics selective breeding physics theory study. Student's achievement indicated that, with the system pondered instructs student's innovation, may sharpen student's innovation ability, causes the student to experience the innovation pleasure, raises students' innovation spirit.

240. Gary, Shayne with Robert Wood, "Mental Models, Decision Making, and Performance in Complex Tasks"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/6q183383r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:29Z
Description:
Previous studies have used the mental models construct as an ex-post explanation for poor performance on complex tasks, but the effects have remained untested. This experimental study measured and tested the role of mental models in a complex decision environment. Participants worked on a product lifecycle simulation under one of two levels of complexity for three blocks of 40 trials before measures of mental models were assessed. Immediately following the measures, participants completed another three blocks of 40 trials. Ten weeks later, participants completed another three blocks of 40 trials each. The results indicate that ability and task complexity are significant predictors of mental model accuracy, and that mental model accuracy and complexity are significant predictors of performance. Mental model accuracy is also related to the decision heuristics employed on the task, and the decision heuristics are related to performance. The results suggest there is potential to increase performance in complex decision environments by up to 50% through improving decision making. Validating these measures of mental model accuracy will enable researchers to incorporate this variable into their study designs in future research, and begin to identify levers for improving causal inferences, mental model accuracy, decision heuristics and performance.