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-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The impact of structural adjustment programme on the economic situation in many African countries can not be overemphasised. Over more than a decade of implementing neo-liberal economic policies by the Bretton Woods institution it is of great importance to document the lessons learnt. This paper explains how the expected effect of structural adjustment policies produced unintended effects which cut back the gains of the programme. Using causal analyses, the assumptions and hypotheses implicit in the six main structural adjustment policies are clearly elicited with a causal loop diagram. The paper concludes, though structural adjustment programme was not a complete failure, the policies generally did not deliver the expected promises due to lack of systematic analyses and understanding of the policy responses by stakeholders.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of using the system dynamics computer simulation methodology to gain insight into the dynamic behavior of insurgencies. To this end, a basic model of insurgencies containing the dynamic mechanisms of incident suppression, insurgent creation, and war weariness is developed. The paper then shows how this model, properly adapted, can explain much of the behavior of insurgencies by examining the Anglo-Irish War of 1916-21. Then, to illustrate the potential usefulness of the system dynamics methodology to policy makers, the paper uses the model to determine which system parameters might have most affected the outcome of the Anglo-Irish War. As one example, the simulation suggests that the lack of British governmental legitimacy in Ireland may have hindered the simulated efficacy of insurgency suppression efforts. As another example, the paper shows how the effects of a good works policy might have aided insurgency suppression in Ireland by separating the insurgents from their supporting population. The paper then concludes by proposing how such a model and the system dynamics methodology in general might be developed to assist policy makers manage current insurgencies throughout the world.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Many transportation agencies have discovered that traditional highway contract administration procedures and project delivery methods do not meet current demands. In response, they are turning to alternative contracting. Four trends are perceived in road management. First, with respect to project delivery, more and more projects are contracted for the whole life cycle of the road. Second, contractors are given increasingly more freedom or design space, as the indicators used for monitoring their work become less operational and more performance based. Third, governments follow a dual track strategy; managing a portfolio of directly and indirectly financed projects; dependent on the project characteristics. Fourth, contracts are granted for longer term. These innovative forms of contracting are expected to yield more flexibility in the road sector; more innovation, higher performance and consequently lower costs while keeping up service levels on public values. This paper presents how by using a combination of institutional economics theory and engineering design theory, our aim is to build a systems dynamics model that can capture the institutional context and is able to indicate what contracting practices are likely to occur and which ones are likely to succeed in view of the meeting the public values and demands.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Rate variables and auxiliary variables in System Dynamics models are normally constructed using functional equations and or table functions. To construct functions, however, it is imperative to know the underlying relation between the independent variables and the dependent variable. This we know is not always an easy task. Indeed, in many differentially non-linear or chaotic situations this may be totally impossible. One may have to resort to less accurate representations if constrained to write relations as equations or tables. Neural Networks has been deployed in many fields to capture the underlying structural relations between variables in such situations through training schemes. When trained, Neural Networks may achieve generalization capabilities though literarily as black boxes. As Neural Networks models when trained can work online like a function, they can be easily implanted within System Dynamics models to compute rates or auxiliary variables. The idea in this article is, in situations were it is not possible or it is considerably difficult to construct explicit functions or tables, to deploy Neural Networks to surrogate fuctions. Neural Network models, here called elements, can be trained on actual data to capture the underlying functional relationships between input output variables and implanted as rates or auxiliary variables to carry out computation on line.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- One of the most volatile market environments of our time is the energy business. Whether the energy medium is gasoline, electricity, or natural gas, traditional market forces do not seem to exert the same influences as in other markets. Indeed, the behavior of the energy market sometimes seems to defy traditional understanding of the law of supply and demand. Management of, and survival within, such a system requires deep understanding of the systems potential behaviors under many different scenario settings. System Dynamics (SD) is posited as the most appropriate first methodology to apply when a system with highly volatile behavior is under scrutiny. This paper presents the background and some of the lessons learned from projects in which SD simulation was applied to analyze and understand the highly volatile energy market. A natural gas strategic acquisition simulation provides a tool for examination of market dynamics with a focus on acquisition strategy, while a gasoline business simulation provides insights into the supply side of the energy business. The application of SD to volatile environment management is not new; the scale of these simulations, and some of the techniques used for design and rollout potentially make the projects unique.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The paper discusses how a Computer Based Learning Environment (CBLE), which is based on a system dynamics model, can form the basis of strategy formulation processes at the operations level. The rationale behind, the structure and the elements of the SYDMAS CBLE, as well as its embedment in a scenario-driven manufacturing strategy formulation process are presented. Through a use case, it is shown how the CBLE can enhance the manufacturing strategy formulation process by providing a dynamic perspective and by effectively supporting the related social and knowledge processes.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8 and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8 and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054