Just as the cobbler's children are the last to have their shoes repaired, simulators—individuals who spend careers structuring the world into systematic models—have not developed tools and techniques to systematize and structure their own procedures. As a result, quick and easy communication among all interested parties during modek development is often made extremely difficult. Inputs which might be helpful to the modeller are consequently lost. It is also typically impossible for a client to maintain control over the implementation of his or her model design especially when the client and model builder are physically separated. Finally, when a version of the model is completed, there can be a considerable delay while an entirely new model description, in laymans terms, is prepared. Unfortunately, as a result of time constraints such as a description is sometimes never completed. Based on the work done at Purdue University and the frustration of designing and overseeing the implementation of a system dynamics simulation model at the Department of Energy, this paper describes a structured development and documentation approach to modelling. A systematic approach of this type forces the analyst to think out the implications of a given representation of the world before sitting down at a terminal. It provides a living (continually updated), standardized, written document which not only helps improve the quality of the work but allows for efficient communication between the client and the implementor and eliminates the need for most post model development documentation efforts.
The research reported in this paper was directed toward understanding and modeling acquisition policy within the DOD. The acquisition model presented was developed at the departmental level and primarily is intended to portray the strategic policy structure of the acquisition system. Lower levels of aggregation were used only where the detail involved was required to capture a major concept. The model parameters and outputs were designated to show what trends would be associated with the implementation of various policy alternatives. Emphasis was placed on the dynamic nature of the relationships within the acquisition system and how they are affected by the policies and external pressures. Exogenous factors input to the model include broad representations of the United States and Soviet economic conditions. The Soviet threat, so key to many of the political battles surrounding weapon acquisition, is generated in the model as a response to threat perceived by them, subject to the economic and political constraints. Incorporation of these and other key relationships was controlled through careful application of a design methodology.
The U.S. Navy's need for better long-range planning is discussed in light of recent dynamic increases to force plans. The difficulties embedded in the current planning and programming process, and the problems they cause in developing valid approaches are reviewed. The ongoing “Navy Resource Dynamics” project at The George Washington University is then presented as a means of overcoming the difficulties, and providing a timely planning model. The basis of the model is a lagged feedback analysis linking budget “flows” over time to weapon system asset “stocks.” The trade-off between naval force levels and the cost of owning the forces is emphasized with force readiness being a relevant measure.
In this paper we present a formal system S∆, in order to characterise the evolution of knowledge. In addition to the connectors of classical logic, we introduce two dynamic connectors- the mediate future and the immediate future-expressing the transformations that may affect data in the course of time. The axiomatisation of these connectors and their semantic characterisation lead us to define a model of interpretation for the formal system which is comparable to that of Kripke for modal logic. With this model we prove the intrinsic consistence and the validity of S∆. Similarly we demonstrate completeness and other propositions connecting the immediate future and the mediate future.The formal system S∆ is one of the component modules of the ARCHES system, a symbolic system for the representation and treatment of knowledge whose objective is to produce new knowledge through two modes of reasoning-deduction and analogy-based upon specific processes of inference.
This study has illustrated that simulating an aggregate model, using the same data set at the same level of aggregation, can lead to different model conclusions when different aggregation criteria are applied. This study's conclusion to the effect of aggregation of individuals can have significant influence on the results of the model is expected to have different implications for system-dynamics modeling. For the field of system-dynamics modeling, the study has identified a kind of model sensitivity that can not be tested by the methods of sensitivity testing presently used. For future research in the field, the concept of aggregation of individuals has to be clearly established and differentiated from the concept of aggregation of variables before general rules for this type of sensitivity testing can be identified. Similar sensitivity testing should be adopted in the system-dynamics modeling technique. If this has not been done, this simulation approach should be interpreted conservatively. This paper also discusses the problem of whether a universal aggregation scheme is the only highest aggregation scheme.
A preliminary mathematical model of fluid dynamics in acute large area burns presently incorporates plasma water, urine output, burn water loss, insensible losses via the non-burned skin, lungs, and G-I tract, as well as inputs of maintenance water and theraputic (Brooke Formula) fluids. The model is an initial step in a longer-term project to identify the pathogenetic mechanisms that control fluid shifts and to evaluate the effects of crystalloid (sodium ion), colloid (albumin), and other guidelines for fluid resuscitation. The model is initialized in homeodynamic equilibrium for a standard 70 KG person, and gives reasonable, realistic responses to a wide range of parameter variations (body sizes, burn wound loss factors), step functions (burn size, discontinuation of maintenance water), and rates of therapeutic fluid administration, given its present structure. The addition of burn and nonburn interstitial and intracellular spaces and their constituents (water, sodium, albumin and potassium) will: 1) permit validation against a wide body of clinical and experimental data, 2) suggest refinements of current resuscitation guidelines, 3) suggest more incisive research on pathogenetic mechanisms and treatment modalities, and 4) permit comparison of System Dynamics with alternative modeling and simulation approaches.
:We present a technico-economical simulation model focusing on enhances recovery in oil fields. The model simulates several assumptions on the quantity of injected fluids, the operation’s start date, as well as the incidence on recovery. It is also possible to place one’s interest on financial and economical parameters. It can also be used for any oil field for which precise physical data may be obtained. Paper: N/A
An exemplary model has been formulated using a methodology which casts a modified version of input-output analysis into system dynamics format. The intent is to utilize the methodology for further study of the concept of a geeignet (appropriate) population for a society. The exemplary model represents a highly aggregated socio-economic system with six sectors. Evaluation of the quality of the society is an important issue in the geeignet population study, and to that end the technique of multi-attribute utility measurement (MAUM) has been included in the model. In order to study a mechanism that can minimize the marginal production cost during the time evolution of the system, a Cobb-Douglas production function that permits substitution between two factors has been incorporated into the agricultural sector. Model runs are shown which demonstrate the approach to equilibrium for the society and the time evolution of the society as the agricultural sector changes from a labor intensive to a capital intensive configuration.
This paper describes the development of a limited resource, backward scheduling, network model for an assembly department using DYNAMO. The model evolved in three stages: a calculation device, a policy exploration tool and a planning and scheduling system. An interesting feature of the model is the representation of the complex flow through various disassembly operations. Graphics and report interfaces with DYNAMO are discussed. The enclosed programs are provided on an as-is basis, without warranty either express or implied. No assurance of successful installation can be given.