In Japan, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in transport sector increased significantly and assuming past increase rates in the future, emission level in transportation sector is expected to rapidly increase. A variety of environmental policies are under debate in Japan, especially tax reduction schemes. As a consequence of green tax incentives, changes in the composition of vehicle fleet can be observed and anticipated. For European Automotive Manufacturers in particular, these transportation and environmental conditions are hard to understand and even harder to influence. However, there are different alternatives to cope with these challenges, e.g. reactive or proactive strategies. As a proactive strategy, a concept for modeling, evaluation and forecasting of environmental regulations is developed in this contribution.
Even in the absence of population growth, many communities continue to experience urban sprawl, or low-density fringe development. Motivated by the example of post-industrial dynamics in a small Illinois town, this paper explores the problem of fragmenting social networks enabled by spatial distancing between distinct socioeconomic classes. Increased fragmentation becomes a concern for community efficacy in establishing new economic opportunities and for potential sources of conflict between sub-communities. This paper develops a framework for considering the spatial dynamics of social network evolution in the face of neighborhood and community migration. The social network is initialized using a small world formulation (Watts 1999) that then evolves as migration patterns affect the probability of "rewiring" social connections. Spatially, some connections are established for neighborhood proximity. Socially, connections are added based upon similarity of economic class. In effect, the probability of rewiring becomes endogenous as the social network evolves over time. A variety of analyses are conducted with migration probabilities under this endogenous rewiring to explore the relative cohesiveness of the emergent community networks. The development of this abstract model is discussed in relation to further application and calibration to a real-world case community.
Watts, Duncan J. 1999. Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks Between Order and Randomness. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of the socioeconomic factors which may affect the terrestrial Digital TV diffusion in Brazil. Such an ex ante analysis is supported by system dynamics models that represent non-linear relations influencing users' interest for this new media. The model inputs are derived from market surveys which reflect users' demand and expectations for Digital TV services. The basic model evaluates penetration of terrestrial digital TV according to the number of households with Digital TV receiver. Although the proposed simulation model is based on Bass diffusion model, other factors influencing diffusion of digital TV were implemented, due to deployment alternatives and Brazilian socioeconomic conditions, specifically the disposable income per socioeconomic class. Furthermore, it is shown how this and other conditional variables, such as attractiveness of new services, might affect digital receiver adoption in the Brazilian society.
Deceptive Advertising (misrepresentation of price or quality) of products has been rampant over the last
decades. The increase in such activities is a growing concern for consumer protection agencies as they
are subject to limited resources to monitor and prosecute the retailers who adopt deceptive advertising
as a marketing strategy. This paper describes a prototype model that addresses the problem of
deceptive advertising in the consumer marketplace. The simulation model integrates consumer
purchasing behaviour, the behaviour of retailers who adopt and who do not adopt the deceptive
advertising, and the behaviour of consumer protection agencies for law enforcement and compliance-
promotion strategies. The preliminary results of a few simulation scenarios are discussed.
Both developing and developed countries allocate a substantial amount of their budgets to their
education sectors in an attempt to improve the learning performance of the students at each stage in
the education system. The stages in the education system are typically conceived as being: Early
Childhood (EC), Elementary to Secondary School (K-12), and Post Secondary Education (PSE). Each of
these stages requires attention to address its unique problems, particularly when each stage is viewed
as a separate, isolated component. This paper presents a modeling framework that integrates the
stages of the education system into a one complete system to evaluate the implications of success in
one stage to other stages. This paper illustrates that in designing effective and robust strategies to
improve learning performance, it is necessary to fully understand how the problems of one stage evolve
over time and if not fixed, could generate or intensify the problems in other stages. This research helps
in understanding where and why to focus education system reform efforts in order to improve the
performance of the students throughout all stages of the education system.
Many teachers and consultants have found that the 30 short games and exercises in the Systems Thinking Playbook provide an extremely effective way to illustrate important points about paradigms, system structure, and system behavior. Plus they are fun, and they help people become more comfortable working and talking together. This book by Linda Booth-Sweeney and Dennis Meadows has been translated into several languages, and it is used around the world. Now that it is accompanied by a two-hour DVD video, illustrating good practice in introducing and operating each exercise, the text has become useful even for those with no previous experience in the use of didactic games. In this special, evening session Dennis Meadows will describe principles for incorporating short games into more traditional teaching; he will prescribe criteria for using the games; and then he will demonstrate a number of the more useful exercises, playing them with workshop participants.
The phrase, "Sustainable Development," has been used to designate so many different goals and justify so many different policies that it has lost its meaning. Normally it is used to specify a destination or state of society. But in fact, it is much more related to how one makes the trip; to the long-term dynamics of a system. Dennis Meadows will draw on 33 years of research on the causes and consequences of growth in a finite world to talk about the features of a system that is developing sustainably and to describe the policy implications of modern society's addiction to unsustainable development.
Structure is a critically important determinant of system behaviour. The relationships between the most basic elements (accumulations, physical flows, information flows, feedback and delay) found in system dynamics models and the building blocks of system dynamics structure are examined. Complexity is explained. The complexity of models we might build, relative to real-world complexity is examined. Why we need to approach model building top-down rather than bottom-up is explained. How to design system dynamics group model building projects through a top-down approach is explained. How to decompose conceptual models developed top-down into appropriate modules to be constructed then synthesised bottom-up is explained. Attendees will design a group model-building project using this approach. The relationships between model functionality, verification, the model as a necessary and sufficient representation of the real world, and the real challenges of validation are explained. How to build models and design effective test to ensure those models work as intended is explained and demonstrated. How to build models using a methodology integrating aspects of systems thinking, system dynamics modelling and engineering is demonstrated. How to manage the complexity of the model through each stage of development is explained..
System dynamics is still evolving. This paper argues additional rigour is needed if system dynamics is to achieve its full potential in helping us understand complex behaviour of human activity systems. It argues that a detailed appreciation of how systems engineers define, analyse, specify, manufacture, operate and support complex systems could inform the evolution of system dynamics even though there are significant differences between the two disciplines. The proffered approach integrates systems thinking, system dynamics modelling and systems engineering. This integrated approach enables group model building and building of exceedingly complex models through top-down design and careful management of the complexity introduced at each stage of the model-building process. The approach promises to engender greater confidence that models developed using it work and are both necessary and sufficient representations of the real world. The greatest potential gain accruing from application of this methodology is enhanced acceptance of system dynamics.
Project based organizational structures are utilized in many industries. The firms engaged in these endeavors, project sponsor and contractor alike, risk both capital and reputation in the market-place with each new project. The relationship between project sponsor and contractor influences the outcome of the project to a significant extent. Complex and challenging projects are made more so by the adversarial relationships that frequently exist between the sponsor and contractor(s). This paper presents a model for examining the influence of the contractor/sponsor relationship on the execution of a project. The focus is on the effects of the relationship, as determined by the financial performance of the engaged firms and key project performance indicators (schedule, budget etc), on the degree to which the firms engage and the impact this has on project performance. Analysis of the model indicates the importance of appreciating the projects need for effective team integration in determining the financial arrangements.