In promotion, tenure or funding decisions, publication performances of researchers in scientific institutions are evaluated using some performance measures. However, there is a concern that measuring research performance, if not properly done, may damage science. Researchers tend to change their research practices when they are asked to be good at some particular measure. In this study, a dynamic model is developed for analyzing the changes in publication practices of researchers towards improving the performance measures used. Reputation, skill level, total time devoted to research activities, fraction of papers accepted by the journals, publication and citation pressures on researchers are the basic variables in the model. The model is constructed and calibrated using Bo?aziçi University Engineering Faculty data. Validation of the model is established by standard structure and behavior tests. Scenario and policy analysis are performed with the simulation model. Pushing researchers to publish in high numbers causes spurious publications with low citations. Allowing researchers to spend more time on research activities is found to be an effective policy. Encouraging mostly the high quality research results in more high-quality publications compared to low-quality ones, hence increased citations. The model provides a platform on which many other policies can be tested.
Flood is the most frequent natural disaster in Indonesia. However mitigation program is still not effective, especially the indirect impact related to human health. The limitation on clean water, sanitation facilities, cold temperature and the quality of health surveillance might trigger the outbreak of infectious disease and also ineffective the mitigation policy. Therefore in this paper we use System Dynamic that modeled the the two diseases that mostly emerge during rainy season, diarrhea and acute-respiratory-infections (ARI)to give insight and feasible policy to mitigate and control the potential outbreak of infectious diseases.
For complex dynamic systems there are a limited number of transition paths to shift from their normal system state into a catastrophic system state. In the present paper, the time development for five generic types of paths have been identified and analyzed. Here, concepts of systems science are linked to observations in human-environment-systems and ecosystems. These generic paths allow analyzing systems from a systemic perspective of how their critical threshold is reached.
Over the past several decades, demands on the United States emergency and trauma care system have grown dramatically, but the capacity of the system has not kept pace. The result is a widespread phenomenon of crowded emergency rooms, especially in urban hospitals, which has become a major barrier to receiving timely care and has been implicated in adverse medical outcomes. This paper develops a stylized system dynamics model to examine the dynamics of patient flow in emergency departments. Simulation results show that increased ED resilience can come from relaxing bed constraints or from more human capability to cope with increasing workloads. The vulnerability of this system is rooted in the critical interaction between physical constraints imposed by the environment and the human capability of the staff to work at high performance levels under conditions of worsening workload pressure.
System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete-event simulation (DES) can be viewed as complementary approaches to modeling. Both are popular approaches and have been applied in a wide range of situations for various purposes. Reviewing the literature from the multimethodology field allows us to develop a modeling framework that considers the differing designs for the combination of SD and DES. The aim of the work described here is to test, reflect on and further develop this framework through an intervention, and to examine how the modeling approaches can be combined in practice.
In this interactive half-day workshop we develop and run system dynamics models and simulators to explore sustainability and limits to growth in industrial society. I first describe a small model of the fishing industry. I then use the same model as a metaphor to think about global growth and industrialisation and to interpret the closed-loop feedback structure and dynamics of Jay Forresters World Dynamics model. This famously concise (yet dynamically intricate) model represents an industrial society whose growth is eventually curtailed. We also consider how the conceptual framework from World Dynamics might be adapted to address the societal effects of global warming. In the spirit of SD conference workshops, participants not only listen but also join-in. There is an opportunity to build a tiny metaphorical model and to run a sustainability simulator. We then use these experiences to discuss the role of models in shaping public debate and political action on global warming and climate change.