In Korea, presidential pardons for traffic violations have been carried out almost every three years, starting from 1995. Whenever Presidents announced pardons for traffic violators, they repeatedly emphasized justifiable reasons that drivers under administrative ruling should be given another chance to make a living by driving. Nonetheless, whenever Presidents issued pardons towards violators of traffic offenses, they were not free from a series of criticism or blame. In fact, the pardons were controversial from the outset.
This paper provides the CSI (cloud computing, smart devices, and the Internet of things) system dynamics model to simulate the future trend in the fields of education, health care, and smart work system. The simulations focus on the policy strategies for success in each field. In addition, this study has a unique meaning in terms of system dynamics modeling approach. A new attempt to build an archetype model for applying to different policy fields was adopted as a new trial.
The objective of the study is to conduct an exploratory study of the causes that constitute to skilled labor shortage in Norway. Subsequently, we formulate policy to increase skilled labor supply. We apply system dynamics methodology to model the causal relationship between individuals motivation to tertiary education participation, from wages and job opportunity perspective. From the simulation, we find that if tertiary education participation persists as it is, skilled labor shortage will increase from 40,000 in 1994 to 190,000 skilled laborers in 2050, which accounts for 11% of the total skilled labor force. With the introduction of voluntary-based internship program into current tertiary curriculum, promotion of online tertiary education, and encouragement of more foreign tertiary students to study in the country, total university students in 2050 will be 1.30% higher, domestic skilled labor force will be lifted 2.5%, and skilled labor shortage will be reduced by 35%.
The Health Systems Design Laboratory applied progressively more complex concept models to help elicit expert knowledge from medical professionals leadership at a population health agency (PHA) as part of a study of medical professional capacity planning over a 20-year horizon. In this paper we document the knowledge elicitation process employed with PHA managers and medical professionals in two half-day sessions in which we introduced first principles of System Dynamics methodology and applied those in progressively more complex concept models. We observe that our working group, made up of persons with widely divergent levels of experience with complicated models and systems thinking consultations, quickly learned iconography and terminology of system dynamics and contributed to the development of dynamic hypotheses.
Prior exploration is an instructional strategy which has improved performance and knowledge acquisition in system-dynamics based learning environments, but only to a limited degree. This study investigates whether model transparency, showing users the internal structure of models, can extend the prior exploration strategy and improve learning even more. In an experimental study, participants in a web-based simulation learned about and managed a small developing nation. All participants were provided the prior exploration strategy but only half received prior exploration embedded in a structure-behavior diagram intended to make the underlying models structure more transparent. Participants provided with the more transparent strategy demonstrated better knowledge acquisition of the underlying model on an objective measure (multiple-choice posttest) but no difference on a subjective measure (open-ended verbal protocols based on short essay questions). Furthermore, their performance (managing the nation) was the equivalent to those in the less transparent condition. Combined with our previous studies, the results suggest that while prior exploration is a beneficial strategy for both performance and knowledge acquisition, making the model structure transparent in this way (with structure-behavior diagrams) is more limited in its effect and may depend on the participants level of expertise.
When evaluating the effectiveness of interactive learning environments it is important to include measures of knowledge acquisition that complement measures of performance. In this paper we report on participants knowledge acquisition in a dynamic decision making task where participants learned about and managed a small developing nation. In the course of the experiment participants not only had to make decisions but also answer multiple-choice questions and short essay questions. The results suggest that participants had a fairly good understanding of the reinforcing nature of national development processes and of processes that are in close causal proximity to their decisions. On the other hand, participants largely failed to recognize nonlinearities, the existence of the outflows to stocks and the proper treatment of delays with different durations. Knowledge acquisition was facilitated by the intensity of participants exploration activities during a simulation-based, guided exploration phase between reading textual instructions and making actual, simulation-based decisions.
Over the past two decades, Calgary a midwestern Canadian City of approximately 1 million inhabitants has experienced periods of rapid resource-driven economic growth and attendant municipal growing pains interspersed with periods of relative stasis. Effective municipal financial planning in this environment imposes profound challenges, particularly due to the presence of feedbacks, delays, non-linearities. To facilitate improved municipal financial planning, the City of Calgary has constructed the detailed multi-sectoral Calgary Impact Assessment Model (CIAM). CIAM whose structure draws inspiration from previous peer reviewed models includes an articulated representation of population demographics, migration, the labor market, the domestic and commercial property market and taxes thereon, infrastructure, finances, and the budget, recreational land, service levels, and quality of life. CIAM was parameterized using data from City databases and reports. Model construction incorporated a variety of best practices, and underwent a through a rigorous peer review. CIAM was subsequently calibrated to dozens of time series, leading to further model structural refinement and parameter estimation; the resulting model reproduces quite well a wide variety of historical municipal dynamics. CIAM has been used to investigate several scenarios important for municipal financial planning, and offers the potential to serve as an important decision-making tool for future city financial planning.
Almost everything we use today is manufactured by a virtual enterprise composed of hundreds of companies. These large distributed systems have led to numerous problems and challenges across multiple industries. The need is great for an analytical technique to examine the performance of a large-scale virtual enterprise. System Dynamics has been successfully used to model these large enterprises and assess the impacts on system behavior of changes in demand and various parameters. These large-scale enterprise models, however, are complex and time consuming to build and are difficult to restructure. For enterprise management, the ability to reconfigure the network of companies in response to external forces is critical, and models of the enterprise must have similar flexibility and rapid re-configurability. Using System Dynamics agent models of factories, distribution centers and customers, scmBLOX uses drag and drop features that enable fast construction of enterprise models and rapid assessments of alternative enterprise structures. Replacement of a make-to-stock factory for a make-to-order factory or the addition or elimination of distribution centers can be quickly evaluated. On-going research is focusing on the interplay between enterprise structure and performance, the development of additional agent models and new features for current agent models, and the assessment of optimization strategies such as push-pull boundaries within the global virtual enterprise.