The study presents a System Dynamic model of the Nigeria electric power system. The model was developed with a view to using it to evaluate the long-term performance of the system. Both primary and secondary sources were employed to collect the systems baseline information. Results from this formed input to develop a four-sector-model in Vensim software for the long-term evaluation of the NEPS. Leverage points in the model were identified from the validated model using data from 2005 to 2009 in the Base Run. The system behaviour, based on two other scenarios (Scenario 1 representing improved basic level of consumption and Scenario 2 representing industrialization target), was then evaluated on a timeframe of 50 years starting from 2009. The study concluded that Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Economic Growth Rate (EGR) were the most critical policy leverage intervention points for NEPS improvement within the next 50 years.
The paper explores the relevance and use of games for speeding up the energy transition in the Dutch built environment. Since the transition of the Dutch energy system with the current policies is much slower than required given the urgency of the foreseeable problems and the substantive system delays. There seems to be a need for experimentation with innovative policy instruments, governance mechanisms, and systemic conditions. This paper includes applied emphases upon two topics as well as illustrations of the usefulness of games as tools for getting a grip on the energy transition. In this context, a conceptual model has been developed to illustrate the possible causes of the aforementioned slow transition in the built environment. Furthermore, we discuss the potential roles of games for managing the transition in the built environment and illustrate with an interactive experimental game developed for hypothesis testing and learning purposes. Finally, based on the results of the game we explore the possibilities for future research.
We discussed a management of Airline-Airport coexistence for a sustainable air transport system. Governments provide various financial supports for unprofitable regional airways when the airways are essential for local life and economy but providing inefficient subsidies are often criticized worldwide. This paper aims to examine the validity of Load Factor Guarantee (LFG) scheme in which an airline and an airport mutually agree with the load factor of a flight and the airport would compensate for the discrepancy between the actual and the agreed load factor. We analyzed the LFG management using the data of Noto Airport and All Nippon Airways (ANA) from 2005 to 2011. Examining several scenarios with System Dynamics, we found that LFG would be effective to maintain regional airways when combined with appropriate level of subsidy. The results illustrated that only having annual negotiation on a target load factor cannot balance the benefits between an airline and an airport and thus does not sustain the mutualism. Integral management of LFG and monthly demand adjustment is the key to success for the airline-airport coexistence. The SD model can be applicable to airways worldwide and contribute to better design and management of a regional air transport system.
An introduction of the participatory element into the existing policy making scheme challenges the whole policy making practice, since unmanageable stakes have a risk to mask the proper distribution of interests and hide needs wider of the society . The particular interest of this research is to describe participatory modeling procedures and construct the model by means of system dynamics that capacitate an input of policy stakeholders via a rational balance of interest expression in policy making and policy administration streams. The primary intention is to use these modeling techniques for the description of participatory procedures and apply them to governance of wider public policy issues. The model primarily is targeted to introduce such mechanisms to the policy making process that enable control of the completeness of the stake representation and to balance the stake representation. Equally the model has to protect policy makers from narrow interest advocacy against the public interest.
We present a system dynamics model called GT-Mod for assessing the development and management of geothermal energy production. The model simulates the entire geothermal energy cycle by representing the major components as a set of connected sub-systems that include the power plant, the injection well, the geologic reservoir, the production well, the surface feeder and distribution pipes, the pumps, and the economics. GT-Mod uses a Latin Hypercube Monte-Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties in various input parameters to calculate the systems thermal and power performance over the lifetime of the project and to assemble a probability distribution of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that is used to estimate the integrated risk as a function of input uncertainty. Integrated risk is the summation of the product of consequence and probability over all probabilities and represents a comprehensive metric for benefit analysis that includes the full range of uncertainties in a particular problem. GT-Mod is also used to bound viable solution spaces and to identify areas of uncertainty that have the greatest influence on risk. An example based on a hypothetical but realistic geothermal site is presented that demonstrates the models application and highlights the suitability of the system dynamics approach.
In this paper we explore behavioral issues, coupled with temporary capacity imbalances that could influence the characteristics that a service supply chain may assume in the long run. We look at a service chain in which processing times by human agents are endogenously determined by what constitutes an acceptable and credible backlog, but implicit incentives, particularly within a formal hierarchy, may also impinge upon throughput rates at certain stages of the supply chain when agents are trying not to overwhelm downstream stations with excess work. We explore these issues in the context of a managerial intervention in a judicial service supply chain. Using data from a detailed case study we develop a preliminary model and discuss some results.