This paper discusses a model developed to assess the effects of land-use changes on traffic congestion and air quality. The inputs are characteristics of development and the outputs are time in traffic per capita, and tons of carbon monoxide from vehicles. As previously developed urban dynamics models have done, the model includes a relationship between the output variables and the attractiveness of the area as a place to live. Particular attention is paid in this paper to challenges associated with modeling the relationship between population and land development in urban areas where alternative land-uses are being contemplated. The evolution of an approach to overcoming the challenges is presented.
This paper uses the framework proposed by Rouwette et al. (2002) to describe the group model building stage of a project to integrate land use, transportation and air quality planning in a rapidly growing metropolitan area. The purpose of the paper is twofold: to present a case of group model building in the public sector, and to test the framework for reporting about group model building interventions. The main goal of the intervention described is to evaluate the effect of potential land use and transportation policy changes on urban quality of life factors such as air quality and traffic congestion. A secondary goal is to foster interagency and intergovernmental collaboration. After approximately 15 months, the project is at the end of its first stage. A quantitative model has been completed and is being tested by the modeling group. In the next stage, the model will be used by policy-makers for policy evaluation.
This article attempts to build a simulation model of the impacts of factors that facilitates faculty adoption of Web-Based Instruction (WBI) from the perspective of the faculty stages of concerns. Faculty have different concerns as they integrate new technology into their teaching. Without reducing these concerns, WBI integration will not be successful. Four main stages of faculty concern (information, personal, management, and impact concern) were identified based on Halls concern-based adoption model. Reviewing literature on the diffusion of on-line education, we have identified support factors that may decrease facultys concerns for adopting WBI in their education settings. These factors were incorporated into the simulation model in order to test the potential impacts of the factors on faculty adoption of WBI. The current simulation model built in Stella® will aid educators or administrators to evaluate the impact of the factors on adoption of WBI.
The purpose of the paper is to propose a modelling approach to be used in targeted organisational interventions focusing on strategic business objectives and change management. The approach builds upon prevalent participative modelling approaches with the extension of increased focus on intervention planning, stakeholder management, and structured implementation. A single-site longitude case study regarding development of a balanced R&D location strategy served as inspiration for the development of the approach and in the paper it also serves as a practical illustration of the approach. Interesting insights include successful observations of individual learning and group communication in a modelling study, which is more targeted on predefined business objectives than usually seen in the SD community. However, generic conclusions must await further research within the area.
The 5th International Ph.D. Colloquium is an event of the System Dynamics Student Chapter. The objective of the colloquium is to bring together Ph.D. Students working on foundations, techniques, tools, and applications of System Dynamics and give them the opportunity to present and discuss their research in a constructive and international atmosphere. The Colloquium will also provide an opportunity for student participants to interact with established faculty and others in the wider system dynamics community. The diversity and the interactive setting should provide a unique learning opportunity for all participants of the colloquium. This year, the all-day colloquium will open with a speech given by Professor Repenning. The colloquium will consist of number of sessions with oral presentations followed up by parallel workshops, as well as a large poster session in the afternoon. We have received more that 20 submissions and we believe and hope it will be an interesting day with many fruitful discussions.
The paper describes a partnership project between three parties, centred on the use of System Dynamics (SD) in a Mental Health Trust (MHT). The main learning experiences relate to the politics of introducing challenging concepts in a situation where participants prefer to avoid confrontation. The rigorous nature of SD modeling and simulation raises questions which operational managers may fear reflect badly on the organization and their own capabilities. They may be uncomfortable with questions about the evidence-base for current treatments, or the research to back their ideas for future developments. A further issue is the ambiguity inherent in definitions of SD and the likelihood that many managers prefer single-issue projects, based on their comfort zone of practice/expertise. A hypothesis is developed to describe the observed reactions in the project and suggest alternative approaches in carrying out SD projects in the UK public sector.
A variety of approaches are being developed to elicit knowledge from clients and develop that knowledge into conceptual maps and formal simulation models. We completed a project that provides a case example where the standard method was adapted for use in a group model-building intervention. We worked with a group of 10 wildlife managers to support system conceptualization, model formulation, and management response to an increase in negative human-black bear interactions in residential areas of New York State. This article discusses the procedural and conceptual steps, insights, and lessons learned from our model building intervention. Our paper focuses on model-building process and learning outcomes, rather than quantitative validation of a simulation model.
Most large development projects suffer overruns and delays, despite substantial effort spent on systems tracking risks and projecting performance. Managers have an especially difficult time making big decisions such as major project re-plans. Typical project management systems have key blind spots that limit their value for comprehensive decisions. Most project management tools are blind to project dynamics variations in productivity and quality over time under different conditions. System Dynamics models have been used to address this weakness and capture project dynamics, but typically these models have their own blind spots as they omit key details. With many pressing decisions and little time, managers rely on intuition to supplement the limitations of management tools. The combination of little time for major decisions, limited tools, and unreliable intuition is a key contributor to the poor results often achieved on major projects. This paper offers perspective on the challenges of making major decisions and describes a case using an integrated management tool -- a System Dynamics model linked to a database of project details. This management system was used to restructure a multi-billion dollar development program with detail and rigor examining dozens of different options, sensitivities, and leverage points in one month.
Studies made by the Swiss politician Jean Ziegler show that the world agricultural system is able to feed twice the population of the planet. However, 800 million people are hungry. During the last years, the Colombian Government has been designing policies oriented to provide solutions to the hunger problem and thus to decrease the number of Colombian families which lack this fundamental right, the food supply. However, the effects of these policies have not been the expected ones, on the contrary, lower class people is still plunged into poverty and hunger. Why have they not been effective? Which have been the consequences of implementing those policies?
Considering the impact of economic liberalization during the 90s on the agricultural sector, a model has been constructed taking into account the national production, the cultivated area, the people working and the capital invested on the agricultural process. The simulation results of the implementation of the commerce liberalization policies seem to match with the results recorded in the Agricultural and Rural development Ministry. Finally, the model will be tested in a scenario that includes the policies that are part of the Development Plan proposed by the current Government 2002-2006 to observe possible consequences of this implementation.
Effective citizenship for the 21st Century calls for young people adept at understanding a world of growing interdependence and multiculturalism. This means new intellectual foundations for understanding complexity and new learning skills for building shared understanding of complex issues like sustainability. Yet most of our schools remain much as they have long been, with sharply demarked subject matters and public education policies that stiffen these disciplinary identities. The result is that even older students have little mastery of understanding of the critical problems shaping their world. New educational outcomes require new educational systems - not just "school systems" in the traditional bureaucratic use of the word but learning communities within and beyond the school that can affect all aspects of children's lives. Peter will share information and invite conversation around current work to develop a network of innovative school systems pioneering a multi-layer view of curricular, institutional and community innovation.