Online Content

1. Dogan, Gökhan with John Sterman, "When Less Leads to More: Phantom Ordering in the Beer Game?"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/mw22vq13m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:03Z
Description:
We analyze experimental data from the Beer Game in which the customer orders are constant (4 cases/week) and all the subjects are informed about this fact before the game starts. Even though the experimental settings disfavor oscillation and amplification, we still observe them. To analyze the decisions made by the subjects, we first estimate the decision rule used by Sterman (1989). This analysis suggests that typically subjects do not understand the time delays and the stock and flow structure of the Beer Game. Next, we relax some assumptions of this decision rule and use more sophisticated alternatives. These alternative decision rules do not yield overall improvement in terms of fit to the real data. However, for some subjects, these decision rules lead to significant improvement. Our analysis reveals strong evidence that these subjects were caught up in a reinforcing phantom ordering loop even though the experimental conditions strongly disfavor such behavior.