In the UK, drug misuse gives rise to between £10 billion and £18 billion a year in social and economic costs, 99% of which are accounted for by problematic drug users. There are strong links between problematic drug use and crime. The Drug Interventions Programme (DIP) is a critical part of the Governments strategy for tackling drugs. The implementation of the UK Drug Intervention Programme poses a number of challenges. This includes providing a through-life approach to drug user treatment management. This must take place within a multi-agency system some of which have been newly formed. This paper discusses a study working with one such coordinating body Lancashire Drug Action Team (DAT) in its Drug Intervention Programme (DIP) strategy. Initial work has focused on Aftercare Services in the Burnley area. A systems modelling approach using System Dynamics has been adopted.
Water supply is a hydrologic phenomenon, whereas water demand is largely driven by human wants and needs. The combination of these two systems, hydrology and economics, is necessary for accurate modeling of our water resources. Moreover, in times of drought or water scarcity it is the human behavioral component that will determine whether a regions water supply can be sustained. The stakeholders of the San Juan Basin are many and varied, from Indian tribes, agriculture interests, and municipalities, to recreational fisherman, power generators and conservationists. Stakeholders must make policy decisions regarding shortage sharing in times of drought to ensure their water supplies are sustainable. We develop a system dynamics simulation model for the San Juan Basin watershed (located in the states of New Mexico and Colorado). The model can be used to quantify shortage-sharing amounts needed for sustainability of water supplies. Hydrology drives the water supply while economics drives the water demand.
This paper offers insights into the dynamics of carbon emissions in metropolitan regions. These
emerge from a system dynamics model of urban land-atmospheric interactions. The paper provides
contextual background, outlines modeling methodology, inventories insights and documents policy
implications. Section One considers climate change, worldwide urbanization, urban CO2 emissions and
urban land-use/transportation dynamics. Section Two identifies the study area, the modeling tool, its
dynamic organizing principle, its structure and the scenarios used to explore system behavior. Section
Three considers urban CO2 emissions and the mitigating effects of land-use and transportation
policies. It compares these to practicable improvements in fossil fuel combustion efficiencies and finds
that modifying urban form compare favorably to improving combustion efficiencies. Section Four
asserts that, given todays global-scale inter-metropolitan economic competition, todays urban
challenge will be largely met by cooperation at the metro-regional scale to tame the dynamics of
carbon-based metropoli.
A panel of business and industry practitioners will describe how they have and hope to use system dynamics in their organizations. They will discuss which issues they have addressed with system dynamics and also share their perspective on what have been their biggest challenges and most significant successes.
This paper presents insights from an interactive seminar game using system dynamics to help the U.S. Latin American policy community explore issues associated with the process of paramilitary demobilization in Colombia. The game used system dynamics to represent the strategic interactions of the key actors in the Colombian paramilitary peace process, including their pursuit of both competing and complimentary goals. The process leveraged the gaming mode and rapid causal tracing capabilities of the Vensim system dynamics software to generate an interactive event in which players generated a rich set of strategic interactions in a hands-on learning environment. The success of the event suggests a promising new approach for leveraging the power of systems thinking and system dynamics software in policymaking and learning environments.
Health care is a complex dynamic setting suitable for system dynamics analyses. The method has the potential to be an important quality improvement tool in the near future. However, it will be necessary to develop the models beyond the pure production model focus on the clinical care process from a patent perspective and in doing so it is inevitable that variables such as health, communication and care planning are involved. Consequently, useful and valid models for modern health care must involve variables that are unfairly designated as intangible. The present paper describes an exploratory system dynamics model of the care planning process. It draws on a range of studies and theories about the process. The paper discusses how it could be possible to incorporate and validate variables alongside the more traditional way.
The rapid spread of HIV/AIDS is a global crisis one that is particularly devastating to the economies of nations where the disease is most prevalent. Booz Allen Hamilton, in conjunction with the Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS (GBC) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), developed an innovative approach for The AIDS Epidemic in India: A Strategic Simulation. Their approach captures the complex interdependencies that drive the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its economic consequences. At the core of this strategic simulation is an analytic framework that leverages epidemiological and economic System Dynamics modeling, partnerships with leading academic centers, and simulation-driven gaming.
Access to energy, particularly through clean and modern technology, can make substantial contributions to promote rural development in the poor areas of developing countries. However, the relationship between energy, poverty alleviation and sustainable development is still unclear. Additionally, while improving access to energy is required for development, the way that this has been supplied has not always warranted a sustained livelihood in rural areas.
With the purpose of gaining a better understanding of the relation between energy and development, the current research Renewable Energy for Sustainable Livelihoods-RESURL, aims to assess and measure the factors that contribute or hinder the development of efficient, viable and appropriate access to energy provision in remote rural areas by using a multidisciplinary and participative perspective.
A System Dynamics model is constructed to evaluate the contribution of energy to rural livelihoods. SD modeling facilitates understanding feedback and control processes, as well as delays in decision making. Simulations show how isolated communities in conditions of poverty could attain a satisfactory level of human, social, physical and financial development by making sustainable use of their natural resources through energy technologies. The study draws on the sustainable livelihoods approach as a framework for assessing community assets and capacities.
System Dynamics simulation models of organizational business system of management of material (raw-materials, orders, money, labor, personnel, population, capital equipment: tools, units and factories e.t.c.) and informational flows in productive company will be presented in this paper. Organizational business-production system is simulated by effective scientific discipline System Dynamic and realized by Dynamo (PD4) and PowerSim program packages, also.
Due to complexity and extensiveness of business management of organizational business process or production-distribution system global simulation models of companies are presented on the modular way, i.e. with seven relevant sub systems:
1. Production-inventory sub system;
2. Credits sub system;
3. Debits sub system;
4. Sub system of productive capacities;
5. Sub system of Cash-Flow;
6. Gross income-net income sub system;
7. Sub system of demand for organization products,
which are common structural characteristic in every productive business organization. These sub system are modelled according to its specific quality.
The paper is conceived as follows: sub systems of business production organization, entire model of productive organization system and its simulation, conclusion and used references.
Multiple Objective Optimisation (MOO) is a proven technique that can be employed by systems dynamicists as they seek to optimise parameters in simulation models. MOO employs genetic algorithms and Pareto-based ranking to find non-dominating sets of optimal solutions to problems that have more than one objective. The aim of this workshop is to: (1) Explain the multiple objective optimisation approach; (2) Show, though an interactive simulation model, how it can be applied to a popular system dynamics model (a two actor version of the beer game); (3) To explore with participants answers to a number of questions, including: (a) What kind of benefits can MOO bring over traditional optimisation approaches? (b) How do modellers decide on the appropriate payoff function? (c) How do decision makers approach the dilemmas of trading off two objectives? All participants will have access to a special purpose simulation application (Windows based) that will allow them to run simulations and optimisations on the two-agent beer game.