Since modeling and risk management must be viewed as a tool to improve business performance, data and modeling tools are required to support financial risk quantification and capital allocation. Market developments and enhanced regulations require new techniques in order to improve Asset and Liability Management..Despite the importance of risk evaluation, lack of reliable public information, the singular probabilistic behavior of the return (or the loss) of market and credit risks and the underlying nature of the business leads to a complexity that is difficult to handle without a combination of methods and techniques that could together give a systemic view of the problem. Based on a research over a 10 year data base, a methodology will be detailed to quantify financial risks based on the combination of methods and techniques such as parametric v@r, historical and monte carlo simulations, Bayesian inference and game theory. The aim of the paper is to put together the techniques and describe the usefulness of each one in order to develop a SD policy model that can use many insights and informations from them.
The paper includes the first day of a wider dialogue à la Plato about systems, under a System Dynamics perspective. Socrates, discussing in the Agora with a young ante litteram manager, practices the art of maieutics in order to elicit and clarify the basic concepts about systems.
This paper shows that the tools of system dynamics theory can be methodologically useful to provide new insights into art and cultural economics. Specifically, it develops a model of how the reward system in art markets works and cause imbalance allocation of revenues and recompenses. With this, it also proves that system dynamics it is useful to model self-organizing systems.
Using the tools of system dynamics and urn theory, this paper formalizes the theory of expansion economies to explain the globalization of the firms. In order to exploit economies of expansion, manufacturing firms tend to expand their economic activities to different locations, regions and countries. As firms expansion process is an increasing return mechanism, system dynamics and urn theory can explain path dependence and self-organizing size distribution of global firms.
Technology is often heralded as a tool to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions despite a rising global population and increasing global affluence. Cloud computing - a popular
A simple system dynamics model was used to explore the potential benefits of using regret analysis to develop sensible government energy policies. Regret analysis evaluates the relative impact of unexpected futures to design policies that reduce the risk of losses rather than trying to optimize benefits. It is very useful when it is impossible to assess or agree on the probabilities of future events and, especially, those events that can have a large impact on the system behavior.