Online Content

241. Garcia, Rosanna with Anand Nair, "Allocation of Resources in Exploration and Exploitation of Technologies: Re-evaluation Using an Adaptive Agent Application"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/1r66jj78z?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:28Z
Description:
Technologically oriented firms must allocate resources between exploration (research) and exploitation (development) activities. March (1991) proposes that the ecology of competition will directly influence the degree of emphasis on exploration and exploitation activities by organizations; the greater the competition, the greater the need to emphasize exploration activities. Exploratory case studies and real market data indicate that this is seldom true. This study examines this issue by adopting a two-pronged approach. First, a game-theoretic model is used to gain insights regarding the optimal strategies for firms. Second, the intuition from game theoretic analysis is enhanced and validated using complex adaptive systems approach. An agent based model is used to simulate the complex market place where competitors R&D strategies directly affect the focal firm’s R&D strategy outcomes. The authors find that organizational adaptation to dynamic environments significantly impacts the firm’s performance over time.

242. Fryling, Meg, "ERP Implementation Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/g445cz04n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:27Z
Description:
ERP projects are often undertaken by project managers in an effort to solve a problem, increase efficiency, and/or provide a higher level of customer service. Although ERP systems can provide all of these benefits and more, they can also cause havoc in an organization if not managed correctly. There are far too many horror stories about organizations failed ERP initiatives. In fact, the success rate of ERP implementations is only around 33% and approximately 90% of ERP implementations are late or over budget. ERP implementation articles consistently report that implementation failure or success is people-related. It's often easier to blame the technology then to explore these deeper issues but in the end they are the controlling factors. It is important for managers to understand the complexities of the people-related issues, relationships and office politics before embarking on a new ERP project. This research is intended to provide insight regarding ERP implementation dynamics through modeling; to build and explore theories regarding what causes ERP success/failure and ultimately aid project managers in avoiding common pitfalls.

243. Franco, Douglas, "Insurance Dynamics: Managing Information Flows"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/08613619s?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:26Z
Description:
Insurance Companies sell information to clients, written in contracts called policies. Clients buy those contracts by paying a premium. Those contracts are promises to pay for possible future casualties. Thus, it is essential to manage information flows to improve profits and stability. Loss Ratio LR, claims cost to premiums ratio, is a key profitability factor, used for management and underwriting decisions with the help of different actuarial models. However, the fragmented visions provided by those actuarial models, mislead decisions and deteriorate performance. This paper integrates basic insurance statistics into a comprehensive SD model, to price insurance coverage. The emphasis is stressed on modeling rather than on policy design, so experience can be used elsewhere; however, tampering and major deteriorating loops are analyzed. Policy design complement policy underwriting.

244. Franck, Travis, "Quantifying the Cost Uncertainty of Climate Stabilization Policies"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/0k225v21f?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:25Z
Description:
Climate change researchers are often asked to evaluate potential economic effects of climate stabilization policies. This paper examines what impact modelers' assumptions have on a model's results. Specifically, MIT's Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is examined to understand how uncertainty in input parameters affect economic predictions of long-term climate stabilization policies. Eleven difference categories of parameters were varied in a Monte Carlo simulation to understand their effect on two different climate stabilization policies. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the structure of stabilization policy regulations has regional welfare effects. Carbon permits allocated by a tax-based emissions path favored energy importers with developed economies (e.g., the US and the EU). Countries with energy-intensive economies (e.g., China) will likely have negative welfare changes because of strict carbon policy constraints. Oil exporters (e.g., the Middle East) will also be negatively impacted because of terms of trade fluxes. These insights have implications for stabilization policy design. The uncertainty surrounding economic projections exposes some countries to larger economic risks. Policies could be designed to share risks by implementing different permit allocation methods. Direct payments are another means to compensate countries disproportionately disadvantaged by a stabilization policy.

245. Ford, David with Tim Taylor and Scott Johnson, "Why Good Projects Go Bad: Managing Development Projects Near Tipping Points"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/df65vs81w?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:24Z
Description:
Previous system dynamics work models the tipping of a series of product development projects into fire-fighting mode in which rework overwhelms progress. Similar dynamics also threaten the performance of individual development projects. The current work extends previous tipping point dynamics research to single projects and demonstrates how a simple, common feed back structure can cause complex tipping point dynamics, trap projects in deteriorating modes of behavior, and cause projects to fail. Basic tipping point dynamics in single projects are described, analyzed, and demonstrated with the model. Researchers recommend dynamic resource allocation policies to improve project performance threatened by tipping point dynamics. This existing work and the potential robustness of adaptive policies suggest that dynamic resource allocation policies can protect projects tipping point-based failure. But this hypothesis has not been tested for specific policies. We test several strategies for managing projects near tipping points, including dynamic resource allocation. The effectiveness of dynamic resource allocation as protection against project failure are modeled and described. Implications for project management practice and future research opportunities are discussed.

246. Fogel, Jonah, "Learning to See a Brighter Future for Morgan County, TN"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3t9467894?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:23Z
Description:
There is a critical need to develop land planning processes that can build the capacities of local communities to address stewardship and sustainability at both the individual and collective/landscape scales. Social learning has been advocated as a process by which to build the capacity of local communities to address these issues. This paper outlines a social learning process currently being conducted to collectively develop a common mental model (or schema) of local landscape change among private forest landowners of Morgan County, Tennessee. By seeking a shared schema of landscape change landowners will elucidate and engage hidden assumptions that guide their land use decisions. This learning process is expected to increase community capacity by giving landowners a common understanding from which to make and/or support more sustainable land use decisions. The effectiveness of the social learning process is evaluated using individual cognitive mapping in a pre/post test quasi-experimental research design.

247. Flynn, Hilary with Andrew Ford, "A System Dynamics Study of Carbon Cycling and Electricity Generation from Energy Crops"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/k3569p13w?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:22Z
Description:
The Climate Stewardship Act, a global warming mitigation policy calling for a cap-and-trade program, was reintroduced in the United States Senate this year. The Energy Information Administration analyzed the implications of the bill and found that under such a policy renewable energy will increase, with the strongest response coming from biomass energy. Dedicated energy crops are one source of biomass that is expected to contribute significantly to the future biomass energy supply. This paper describes a system dynamics model of the carbon impacts from a dedicated energy crop. The work relies on another carbon accounting model, GORCAM, which uses spreadsheet modeling to investigate various land management regimes. We were able to reproduce the GORCAM results for a 20-year harvest rotation; we then simulated several different harvesting intervals to gain insight into the carbon impacts of these rotations. Our results show that a shorter harvest rotation will remove more carbon from the atmosphere if the biomass is used to replace a fossil-fuel burning power plant compared with no-harvest or longer harvest scenarios. These results agree with previous work that found long-term benefits were greater for scenarios where trees were planted for energy generation rather than specifically for carbon sequestration.

248. Flury, Christian with Gabriele Mack and Birgit Kopainsky, "A Composite Optimisation-Simulation Model for the Analysis of the Dynamic Interactions in the Swiss Milk and Meat Market"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/cr56nj323?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:21Z
Description:
By 2011 Switzerland aims to liberalise the milk market which will result in market changes in the basic conditions for agriculture. The impacts of the liberalisation are investigated with a composite model obtained by combining an optimisation model for the agricultural sector and a dynamic simulation model for the milk and meat market. The calculations with the composite model indicate that milk price depends strongly on the phasing out of market support, while the abolition of milk quotas in 2009 is less decisive. An introduction of a dairy cow premium leads to a higher milk production, especially with abolished milk quotas. In this case the European milk price level represents the lower limit for the milk price in Switzerland. Compared to the milk market, with falling quantities meat prices are likely to exhibit a stable development.

249. Fletcher, Michael, "The Dynamics of Analytic Collaboration"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/pr76fn28m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:19Z
Description:
Abstract: This paper examines the nature and effects of collaboration using a System Dynamics Model. The goal of the model was to place collaboration into a System Dynamics operational construct using stocks and flows in order to examine its workings. Using simple representations of two analysts attempting to learn from a dynamic document set, questions regarding collaboration, skill, learning and the effects of rapidity of change within the document set are examined. Findings indicate a knowledge-based rationale for collaboration during periods of increased operational tempo. However, there also appear to be knowledge-based reasons not to collaborate under certain conditions. The knowledge-based rationale is mirrored by the behavior of real social systems.

250. Fisher, Diana, "Workshop: Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/xp68m0934?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:32:18Z
Description:
"Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course" provides a set of tools that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to teach a one-semester or one-year course in System Dynamics. These lessons are also useful for trainers in a business environment. Developed for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in this book can be used for a core curriculum or for independent study. A set of student lessons, a teacher’s guide with all the answers to the student lessons (and additional comments to the instructor), as well as a CD containing all of the models, is provided with the book. Participants in the workshop will have a chance to build some simple models and gain a sense of the progression leading to a more sophisticated model. Student work will be demonstrated and a CD containing samples of student work and their technical papers will be provided to all participants.