Since the introduction of systems thinking inventory tasks or Bathtub Dynamics tasks in 2000, an increasing number of researchers and educators have confronted various student groups and post-graduates with these tests to assess and evaluate their understanding of basic system thinking skills and system concepts. Surprisingly, the results showed a poor performance. This motivated us to subjecting students in Germany to the Bathtub Dynamics tests so as to broaden the international research data and to gain a better understanding of the current level of system thinking skills in selected student groups at our educational institutions. Three different groups, two at university and one at high school level, received the same tasks. The performance results were compared to each other and to other research studies that applied the same tests. The task results were assessed to discover any correlation with the subjects demographics, such as age, gender, previous degrees or university courses. As was shown with other studies, the overall performance was poor given the participants education level. The interesting aspects are the specific differences in performance between and within the individual groups and the relationship to demographic factor such as gender.
In this study, a simulation model is built to study the body water regulation and its disorders by focusing on the fundamental feedback mechanisms in the normal and disease physiology. This model is then extended to include related therapeutic interventions of the most common body fluid/electrolyte disorder, namely water intoxication/ hyponatremia, and a game version is produced to test the possible effects of a given set of treatment options on a simulated patient. The model is shown to adequately reproduce the changes in the body fluid balance not only in a normal person as a result of a given disturbance, but also in a hypothetical hyponatremia patient. The interactive simulation game version of the model proves to be a useful experimental platform to describe changes known to occur after administration of various pharmacological means. The aim of the treatment is to increase the extracellular sodium concentration safely by reducing the body water and replenishing the sodium deficits. Game results demonstrate that hypertonic saline should be given carefully concurrently with drugs that increase urine flow, and antidiuretic hormone-antagonists happened to be superior over diuretics. The model and the game version constitute an experimental laboratory for a closed-loop therapy approach to hyponatremia.
This paper proposes a combined research approach of simulation and modeling and qualitative empirical social research. Modeling and simulating may reveal valuable insight into real world systems consisting of a complex structure. Yet, published data on structures, like learning alliances, are oftentimes limited and stand side-by-side, without interrelation. Qualitative empirical social research might provide model builders with appropriate missing data. Though applying real-world data has long tradition in System Dynamcis, a comprehensive scientific explanation is still omitted. In this paper we view modeling from an outsider perspective, like, i.e., an alliance scholar who needs to be convinced about the benefits of simulation and modeling. Model quality and model acceptance, among other things, depend on realistic model input, including non-rationality or real-world policies. We analyze how qualitative empirical social research may ensure that the model builder works with real-world input that she might use for building the simulation model and for her analysis.
South Africas Motor Industry Development Programme (MIDP) adopted in 1995 was hailed as a successful and innovative industry policy by all stakeholders. Despite attracting significant investment by almost all major global vehicle manufacturers, consensuses is declining that the programme can successfully steer the industry to sustainable future growth. The paper presents findings of an investigation into the declining consensus on the MIDP. A review of the MIDP mental model is done. Industry performance data from 1995 to 2004 is evaluated against programme objectives. Findings show that the declining consensus is due to failure to acknowledge interrelationships among industry variables. The programme success has not been across board and policy makers have paid little attention to synergies between industry sectors. The MIDP presents a classical case of a system dynamics problem that can benefit from system dynamics modeling.
For a fairly long time, the German corporate loan business has been regarded in publications on the subject as leading to value deterioration. On the basis of the bank lending statistics of the Deutsche Bundesbank, our analysis clearly shows a cyclical as well as a structural problem preventing the big four German banks from creating value. In order to analyze possible strategies to solve this issue within a systemic approach, we built a model which included almost 200 variables. Running this model until the year 2010 the outcome is appalling: the break-even return on equity will not be reached. We therefore modelled in a second step the widely discussed strategy of risk adjusted pricing. The outcome raises hope although this strategy in itself is not sufficient to solve the problem entirely, the return on equity can be increased.
Automobile manufactures are facing shrinking product lifecycles and increasingly complex production and product technologies. Both of these phenomena pressure production facilities to begin full scale operations at a point when the underlying process technology is still poorly understood. Consequently companies suffer from substantial yield losses which can dramatically affect the economics of the product, the production facility, and business. The manufacturing start-up will be defined as the time span equal to the difference between time- to- market and time- to- volume. A major goal of automobile manufacturers is to reduce the timeto-market, however they cannot evaluate the effects on the time- to- volume. This paper will give insight into these interdependencies and compare two policies for the management of changes during manufacturing start-up.
The current work presents and discusses current insights from an ongoing BP Project Dynamics R&D program that supports a Project of the Future vision enabled through the use of formal system dynamics modeling. The BP capital investment environment and the importance of effective capital project planning and execution is discussed. The role of system dynamics in BPs project training approach and early adoption trends favoring conceptual versus formal model tools are reviewed. A formal modeling application conducted in parallel with an actual project assessment that used a traditional approach is detailed and contrasted to provide a direct comparison. In particular, we describe the traditional project assessment approach, how a formal system dynamics model was introduced and used, and how the quantified results influenced both the project and participants. We then identify key learnings and how a model-in-loop concept supports the Project of the Future vision. Finally, we briefly discuss implications for future R&D efforts.
The current work examines the application of system dynamics to real options through work with a major energy firm to apply real options. Five key challenges facing the real options community are presented and potential system dynamics contributions to these challenges are discussed. Two cases from a BP research project illustrate how system dynamics can be used to develop and value real options. The work shows that the use of systems dynamics in real option development and valuation can 1) address key challenges facing the real options community and increase the use of real options in the oil and gas industry 2) allow system dynamicists to offer increased value in developing and valuing flexibility and 3) open system dynamics to new markets of research collaboration and potential clients.
In order to find some effective management policy by the feedback loops analysis of a complex system, we transformed the rate variable fundamental in-tree model of SD to a diagonal-0 branch-vector matrix using the method combining graph theory and algebra to work out there are how many newly gained feedback loops in a SD model when a new management activity was introduced into. We created a SD model of a human resource management in an organization, and using this new method, we proved that there were 16 positive and 17 negative newly gained feedback loops by introducing a new HR management of grade-salary incitement on performance level. We proved that the grade-salary-incitement improved the organizational performance, but on the other hand, it restrained the performance of the organization because of the increasing cost. By analyze the growth limited structure model, we find the policy of using the grade-salary-incitement to increase the performance of both the employees and the organization better.
The various purposes for which a dynamic tasks might be constructed, such as to test for knowledge, teach, or to assist professionals or the lay public in understanding the systems they are dealing with (or part of), are discussed. The idea analysis method is suggested as a means to fit a task to its purpose. Idea analysis entails analysing the task in terms of what basic ideas need to be familiar if one is to be able solve the task. It is just as important to know what knowledge a task does not require as to know what it does require, and if the requirements corresponds to the goal(s) motivating the construction of the task. To provide an example, the Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT) task, a close analogue to the one-stock reindeer management task by Moxnes, is analysed, and several issues of general importance are revealed.