Differences regarding the liberalization of agricultural markets are a central issue in the current Doha-round of WTO negotiations. The positions of the individual countries and country groups differ significantly as far as market access is concerned. The positions can be explained by the existing levels of market support and thus by potential agricultural income losses as a consequence of market liberalization.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic impacts of different adjustment steps in market access and the resulting interactions between the agricultural markets. Adjustment steps can consist in an expansion of tariff quotas and in a reduction of import tariffs. Our simulations show that price development and thus the development of the revenue from agricultural products depend on several factors. In addition to domestic supply and demand the temporal design of market liberalisation is a key influencing factor.
ABSTRACT
This paper explores the topics of innovation dynamics and investment choices that exist in subsystem design architectures of complex product developments.
A particular theme in the innovation literature is captured and extended. This refers to the process of knowledge development regarding technology intersections within product developments that can sustain product innovation.
This is fulfilled in this research through a composition of analytical tools that are used to match the case study environment. In this regard a unique variety of modeling techniques are sequenced to complement the problems encountered and support the outcome of technical and economic decision criteria.
The case study presented here is at the forefront of economic and environmental concern - the evolution of Hybrid ElectricVehicles, HEV, efficiency. This paper outlines an innovative and analytical decision approach that is at the core of HEV evolution.
This poster describes a model for managing particulate matter (PM10) in the Las Vegas Valley, currently categorized as a serious non-attainment area for PM10 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The project client, the Department of Air Quality and Environmental Management (DAQEM), must provide a predictive model to the EPA as part of its plan to mitigate particulate emissions and wanted to utilize system dynamics for improving current methods. The model uses parts of Solomons (1994) framework for regional air quality planning and management, including: sources of emissions, meteorology and transport, and removal processes. It is designed to meet the requirements of the EPA, identify policy levers for effectively reducing emissions, and allow for future addition of real-world management components such as the permitting system. This poster presents the structure of the working model, its results, and discusses its implications on managing PM10 in Las Vegas.
This paper report several related failures of modeling interventions. Atrivé, an organizational consulting company, set out to adapt the canonical housing association model, named ITS, (Vennix, 1996) for the specific circumstances of its clients. The ITS adaptation process, however demonstrated rather annoying dynamics and had finally to be terminated due to negative business results. This paper provides a background on the relevance of failure case studies and ventures into the symptoms and warning signs. We reflect on a system thinking intervention within the company to learn from these experiences and improve business strategy and project the problems encountered onto the core set of archetypes. We conclude by summarizing several known and one possibly new factor in modeling failure and pose several questions for further research.
The dynamics of the global oil tanker market has long been studied by practitioners of System Dynamics. This paper does not seek to repeat what has been done, but rather to focus on an aspect which has recently taken on greater importance: the phase-out of single-hull tankers by 2010, and double-bottomed or double-sided (but not true double-hulled) tankers by 2015. In particular, questions of interest are: might the single-hull ban lead to extremely tight supply through 2010; and is it likely that the industry will overshoot the number of newbuilds necessary, leading to a crash in spot rates after 2010? Preliminary results indicate that the answer is yes to both questions.
Environmental conflict management involves the management of multiple stakeholders with conflicting stakes. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a shared mental model of stakeholders in an environmental conflict. The Transmission Gully project, a large-scale transport infrastructure project in the Wellington region of New Zealand is used as a case study. Selected stakeholders of this project tried to generate this shared model, in the form of a causal loop diagram. This model is analysed qualitatively to provide different insights into potential system behaviours.
This workshop will be an introduction to building and communicating system dynamics models using STELLA or iThink software. This workshop is intended for people who are relatively new to the field or do not have experience using STELLA or iThink. The session will be conducted as a hands on workshop and demonstrate basic techniques for building, analyzing and communicating simple simulation models. Participants should bring their own computers with STELLA or iThink Version 9 installed or arrive one half hour early to install the software.
Given the importance of renewable energy for mitigating Global Warming, without hampering development, this paper explores the feasibility of wind farms in developing economies. The analysis is based on an SD model of electricity markets that represent the behaviour of the agents involved and their decision to invest according to market and/or regulatory incentives - the likely expansion of wind farms depend on such incentives. This research is carried out in the context of the Colombian electricity market and accordingly we take into account likely synergies that may favour the potential exploitation of wind farms in this country. This paper examines how soft regulation may efficiently promote the penetration of wind farms in Colombia.
System dynamics simulation modelling of marinas in relation to investments in sports objects will enable rise of the quality of the total offer and competitive forces of the observed system, and at the end growing satisfaction of tourists. The system of marinas (LNT) has all the characteristics of a complex organisation and business system, for which dynamic modelling efficient methods of simulation techniques have to be used. One of the relatively recent, and particularly exposed and practically proved scientific methods is system dynamics simulation modelling which was developed by the Professor Forrester in the famous world scientific centre of the development of management science - The Sloan School of Management (MIT).
This model is developed for the practical training of marine management students. In this paper, the business system of marinas (LNT) will be determined through a global model of integral nautical and tourist service(from berthing service as a basic service to all other additional services). The subsystem of investments in new capacities, like sports and additional capacities will be determined by exogenous variable VINK value of investments in new capacities.
The Computer Simulation Model of the Socio-Economic and Ecological System of the "CROATIA"-SEESC had been developed in accordance with the System Dynamics Approach. It is a continuous model and at the same time discrete digital model because it is presented as a system of non-linear differential equations and it is presented as a system of difference equations (System Dynamics DYNAMO-software program-package) and its DT (length of intervening time = computation interval) is chosen in full accordance with the Sampling Theorem (Shannon and Koteljnikov). In this paper the authors have presented the principles of the application possibilities of the System Dynamics Modeling Approach on the Socio-Economical and Ecological Systems of Croatia. Further, they have conducted elementary observations on the Socio-Economic and Ecological Systems of CROATIA-SEESC, their four regional parts (CMZSR, CSOSR, CNWACRSR and CDACSR), the Space and Environment Sector-SES of the CDACSR, and the high aggregated structural models of the SES, ecological model of the CDACSR, and rudimentary global model of the SEESC. The developed model covers period from years 1953 to 2033, with inbuilt war situation (1990-1995).