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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- The session consists of four papers: Real Time Diagnostics of Problem-Solving Behavior for System Dynamics-Based Business Simulations; Sensitivity Analysis of an Infectious Disease Model; Leveraging a High Fidelity Switched Network Model to Inform a System Dynamics Model of the Telecommunications Infrastructure; and Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System. The first paper concerned supporting learning in and about complex problems. The paper describes the diagnostics of the problem solving process, i.e. of the information-retrieval and decision-making processes, as prerequisite for effective feedback to the learner. The second paper describes a model of infectious diseases that has been developed for integration within a larger simulation structure to assess the interdependencies of critical infrastructures. This paper presents the preliminary sensitivity analyses of the effects of inputs to the infectious disease model on the calculated consequences. The third paper summarizes the results of a collaborative effort with Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies to leverage a detailed switched network simulation to inform the telecommunications system dynamics model in a Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS). The fourth paper describes CIP/DSS and simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their interdependencies.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- When demand exceeds supply, customers often hedge against shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. The resulting demand bubbles creates instability leading to excess capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, and financial and reputation losses for suppliers and customers. This research contributes to the understanding of phantom demand caused by shortages by developing a formal model of the relationship between a single supplier and multiple retailers. The research combines simulation and game theory to explore equilibrium strategies that arise as a result of a dynamic game. When retailers must commit to a single strategy in a static retailer game, our analyses suggest that a prisoners dilemma arises if appropriate incentives are not in place, allowing retailers to reach equilibrium with an aggressive ordering strategy (inflating their orders and later canceling them) even though a conservative ordering strategy (ordering just what they need) is mutually more profitable. The conservative strategy dominates the aggressive one when sufficient incentives are in place. In addition, we investigate a number of strategies (e.g. tit-for-tat, severe punishment, etc.) for retailers in an infinitely repeated game and we explore the static and dynamic games for the supplier-retailer interactions.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- This workshop discusses how advances in technology allow modelers to develop and share their own dynamic simulations on the web. New tools have made creating web interfaces to system dynamics models simpler and inexpensive, but model developers still face hurdles developing web simulations because of the design expectations of Web users. Simulations that run in web browsers have the advantages of global accessibility, simple distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation usage. However, simulations previously delivered in other formats need to be modified in order to effectively use the online medium. Simulations need to engage the user, be simple to navigate, and correspond to the user's learning objectives. This workshop will consist of presentation and a hands on workshop. During the presentation, Will Glass-Husain will demonstrate how to create web simulations and discuss commonly occurring web simulation design challenges and potential solutions. The session will also include a hands-on session where participants will create a paper outline of potential simulation design for a model of their choosing.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Even if arbitrage opportunities are found in a statistical sense, they might not be exploitable due to unexpected widening of spreads. This paper models such a case in the framework of a hedge fund. Specifically, Long Term Capital Management is presented as a case study. In particular, we calculate the likelihood of hedge fund failure and survival given different statistical arbitrage opportunities and hedge fund risk management decisions. Dynamic relationships between a hedge fund, dealer, and market (investor) are modeled.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- An exploratory system dynamics (SD) model presents disruptive innovation diffusion as a replicable process that can spawn business growth for d, Inc., a company that offers an over the air digital subscription TV service. Building on diffusion processes in epidemiology, marketing and sociology, the eight-sector SD model shows customer switching in the high-and low-end and non-consumption markets that disruptive innovators exploit. As extreme-condition scenarios test its robustness, the model shows performance results for the multiple market penetration and defense tactics that disrupter and incumbent firms execute through time. In a relentless hunt for superior performance and a sea of external-change triggers and internal-change levers, d, Inc. takes on cable operators who overlook low-end markets and devote their attention to and invest in higher-end tiers, their service tailored to more demanding customers. But low-end markets cannot absorb sustaining innovations that exceed what non-consumers need or know how to exploit. The results show that despite the high environmental turbulence, market risk and uncertainty facing d, Inc., being in a market that blends its commercial and technological competence with discontinuity and instability transients suggests ample opportunity for sustainable disruptive growth, even if markets contract.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- There are two parts.The first,Systematic dynamics and students innovational activities.The second ,Systems dynamics selective breeding physics theory study. Student's achievement indicated that, with the system pondered instructs student's innovation, may sharpen student's innovation ability, causes the student to experience the innovation pleasure, raises students' innovation spirit.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Previous studies have used the mental models construct as an ex-post explanation for poor performance on complex tasks, but the effects have remained untested. This experimental study measured and tested the role of mental models in a complex decision environment. Participants worked on a product lifecycle simulation under one of two levels of complexity for three blocks of 40 trials before measures of mental models were assessed. Immediately following the measures, participants completed another three blocks of 40 trials. Ten weeks later, participants completed another three blocks of 40 trials each. The results indicate that ability and task complexity are significant predictors of mental model accuracy, and that mental model accuracy and complexity are significant predictors of performance. Mental model accuracy is also related to the decision heuristics employed on the task, and the decision heuristics are related to performance. The results suggest there is potential to increase performance in complex decision environments by up to 50% through improving decision making. Validating these measures of mental model accuracy will enable researchers to incorporate this variable into their study designs in future research, and begin to identify levers for improving causal inferences, mental model accuracy, decision heuristics and performance.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Technologically oriented firms must allocate resources between exploration (research) and exploitation (development) activities. March (1991) proposes that the ecology of competition will directly influence the degree of emphasis on exploration and exploitation activities by organizations; the greater the competition, the greater the need to emphasize exploration activities. Exploratory case studies and real market data indicate that this is seldom true. This study examines this issue by adopting a two-pronged approach. First, a game-theoretic model is used to gain insights regarding the optimal strategies for firms. Second, the intuition from game theoretic analysis is enhanced and validated using complex adaptive systems approach. An agent based model is used to simulate the complex market place where competitors R&D strategies directly affect the focal firms R&D strategy outcomes. The authors find that organizational adaptation to dynamic environments significantly impacts the firms performance over time.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- ERP projects are often undertaken by project managers in an effort to solve a problem, increase efficiency, and/or provide a higher level of customer service. Although ERP systems can provide all of these benefits and more, they can also cause havoc in an organization if not managed correctly. There are far too many horror stories about organizations failed ERP initiatives. In fact, the success rate of ERP implementations is only around 33% and approximately 90% of ERP implementations are late or over budget. ERP implementation articles consistently report that implementation failure or success is people-related. It's often easier to blame the technology then to explore these deeper issues but in the end they are the controlling factors. It is important for managers to understand the complexities of the people-related issues, relationships and office politics before embarking on a new ERP project. This research is intended to provide insight regarding ERP implementation dynamics through modeling; to build and explore theories regarding what causes ERP success/failure and ultimately aid project managers in avoiding common pitfalls.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Insurance Companies sell information to clients, written in contracts called policies. Clients buy those contracts by paying a premium. Those contracts are promises to pay for possible future casualties. Thus, it is essential to manage information flows to improve profits and stability. Loss Ratio LR, claims cost to premiums ratio, is a key profitability factor, used for management and underwriting decisions with the help of different actuarial models. However, the fragmented visions provided by those actuarial models, mislead decisions and deteriorate performance. This paper integrates basic insurance statistics into a comprehensive SD model, to price insurance coverage. The emphasis is stressed on modeling rather than on policy design, so experience can be used elsewhere; however, tampering and major deteriorating loops are analyzed. Policy design complement policy underwriting.