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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- While the focus of the project management literature has been on the management of single projects, the management of multiproject environments is largely neglected. In this research I am focusing on mutiproject environments which exist within a single firm (hereafter called Alpha). Through my investigation in this multiproject environment I explored root causes for project inefficiencies which rather than being possible to attribute to source within each single project boundary, are caused by the effects which I term them systemic effects. System effects are dynamics triggered by the complex linear , nonlinear and time delayed interaction of large number of factors. I develop a model which explains the dynamics through which the systemic effects deteriorate the performance of the projects in this organization. The model is useful in creating awareness among the managers about the lack of holistic approach in decision making and the effects of suboptimum decisions in this environment.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- This paper describes the application of system dynamics to assist decision making in the reallocation of resources within a specialist mental health trust in south London. Mental health service providers are under increasing pressure to both reduce their own costs and to move resources upstream in mental health patient pathways to facilitate treating more people, whilst not compromising service quality. The investigation focuses on the use of the model to examine the case for converting an existing specialist service ward in a mental health hospital into a triage ward, where patients are assessed and prioritised during a short stay for either discharge or onward admission to a normal ward. Various policies for the transition are studied together with the implications for those patients needing post hospital services and relocation within the community. The model suggests that the introduction of a triage ward could meet the strategic requirement of a 10% shift away from institutional care and into community services. The paper includes a number of statements from the management team involved on the benefits of system dynamics to their thinking.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues, surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers, whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in strategic planning.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in water resources management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management, urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of system dynamics in these areas over the past 40 years. From this review of the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- Today there is widespread agreement that participatory methods are useful if not legally required to understand and effectively address environmental management problems. What participatory methods should be used in which situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently addressed questions. There is limited understanding about the interconnections between project purpose, participatory methods and their application. Participation methods are often selected on the basis of familiarity or cost considerations. We argue that these trade-offs may compromise the potential outcomes and effectiveness of a project. To address these shortcomings we summarise current knowledge and understanding in the public participation literature. System dynamics projects can benefit substantially from public participation particularly through participative modelling. Much research effort focuses on group model building. For projects where group model building is not a prudent choice, we suggest and discuss alternatives.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- In March 2006, the Government of Jamaica engaged the Millennium Institute to assist in the development of a modern planning tool with the capability to integrate relevant sectors of the Jamaican society. An important component of the model is the sector for organized crime behaviour in Jamaica. The purpose of this paper is to explain the development of the organized crime sector within the T-21 Jamaica model and demonstrate the possible utility of system dynamics in facilitating discussions on public policy. The organized crime sector examines the conversion of young, unemployed males living in impoverished, urban areas into gang members and some possible outcomes of this behaviour. The validity of the model is tested by its ability to match Jamaica's historical data for gang-related murders and shootings.Possible interventions are explored with the model suggesting that social interventions would have a more immediate impact on reducing crime rates but increased investment in the security forces would eventually lead to an even greater reduction in crime in the long run.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- The conventional method of teaching macroeconomics to undergraduates relies on static graphs, an approach with documented pedagogical problems. In contrast, the feedback method uses feedback loop diagrams and interactive computer simulation models. This paper describes the feedback method and reports on four experiments designed to test its effectiveness. Two experiments examined student preferences for methods of learning macroeconomics; for example, using static graphs or a feedback loop diagram. The experimental designs were quite different, but the results were the samea significant majority preferred the feedback method. The most commonly cited reason: feedback loops enable students to visualize an economic process. The third and fourth experiments addressed the performance question. In the third experiment, students showed more understanding of GDP when they had access to a stock-and-flow feedback diagram of the economy. In the final experiment, students using feedback loop diagrams displayed more understanding of business cycle dynamics than those who had access to a conventional aggregate supply and demand graph. Teaching undergraduates to search for feedback structure in the economy and using computer simulation to connect structure with behavior appears to be a promising method for teaching macroeconomics.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- Building upon previous work in the field of behavioral finance and artificial stock markets, a model incorporating discrete and continuous interrelations is developed. Three different investor types are modeled as individual agents: fundamental analysts, technical analysts and noise traders. They differ in their intrinsic pricing mechanism and represent trading strategies that are observed in financial markets. The developed structure is able to reproduce the formation of speculative bubbles and other stochastical anomalies that are characteristic for financial time series.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- This paper discusses five landmark projects which highlighted issues and produced frameworks that became important building blocks in the application of System Dynamics to corporate strategy. The early models were primarily at the level of the firm. The first model described in the paper captures the tension among conflicting performance objectives and shows how the conflicts impact mid-term company performance. The second model represents the behavior of an R&D organization as it responds to changing pressures and direction from corporate management. Over time the focus shifted to market behavior and competition. The third model explains powerful long-term dynamics that lead to "commoditization" of products and services. Recent work analyzed the social dynamics of markets, e.g., as they affect innovation and technology substitution. The fourth model in the paper represents the fundamental dynamics of innovative industries, building on an extensive body of research and publications. The final model focuses on the market impacts of social factors, e.g., trust, fashion, the characteristics of lead users, how trends are perceived and extrapolated, the flow of information, bandwagon effects, and network effects. The most important lessons are about the critical roles of organizational, social, and psychological factors in important business decisions and competitive behaviors.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410, and 298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134
- Description:
- The growth theory has, through the so-called endogenous or new growth theory, taken on decisive impulses. This contribution delivers an overview of the various extensions without going into detail about the mathematical observations and the main focus on supply-side orientated approaches. The main goals of the growth theory are to understand the exponential climb of the populations income or also the per‑capita income and to draw conclusions for policy makers. The paper uses stock-flow-graphs to visualize the major loops. Because changes tend to be incremental I adopt standard textbook models first. All models are used in economic teaching with additional simulation and extensions. Later on students learn to modify those models.