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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This paper discusses the multilevel evaluation system and fuzzy synthetical evaluation method for the validity of the system dynamics model, and gives a computation example at last. The example proves that fuzzy synthetical evaluation can give satisfactory results.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The U.S. Energy system has been the subject of intense national interest and policy debate over the past two decades. During that time the U.S. has experienced a steady trend toward increased oil imports, two major oil embargoes, oil price shocks, and a series of government policy initiatives designed to reduce its vulnerability to oil supply disruptions: Project Independence, the National Energy Plan, and more recently oil and gas price deregulation.Understanding the dynamics of the U.S. Energy system has been the focus of a decade-long System Dynamics modeling effort which began in 1972 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, continued at Dartmouth College, and is now centered at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The analytical focus of that effort is an integrated model of U.S. energy supply and demand called FOSSIL2, which is used to prepare projections for energy policy analysis in the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis. This paper describes the conceptual development of the FOSSIL2 model, and its use in analyzing national energy policy issues.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The structured systems approach integrates the design of computerised models and information systems with comprehensive relational data bases. It can be applied to any kind of optimisation and simulation models including system dynamics. In addition, the structured systems approach supports the model design process and its documentation; it simulates the interdisciplinary and interpersonal participation in the model design process.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The top managers of a biotechnology startup firm agreed to participate in a system dynamics modelling project to help them think about the firm's growth strategy. The paper describes how the model was created and used in order to stimulate debate and discussion about growth management.There were several novel features about the process used for capturing management team knowledge in the model, and for representing unique structural features of biotechnology manufacturing and marketing. The paper highlights these novel aspects of conceptualisation. A heavy emphasis was placed on mapping the operating structure of the factory and distribution channels. In addition, much time and effort was spent on choosing model concepts and vocabulary suited to the business and to thinking carefully about units of measure and dimensions. Qualitative modelling methods (structural diagrams, long variable names and friendly documented algebra) were used extensively to capture the management team's description of the business.The size of the model (and partial models) was kept deliberately small to ensure the involvement of the management team. Simulation scenarios were designed to stimulate debate about strategic issues such as capacity allocation, capacity expansion, customer recruitment, customer retention and market growth. The paper describes how the management team was 'drawn-in' to using the computer to design and debate their own strategic scenarios. The paper concludes with comments on the impact of the project.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- During the last few years we have witnessed the development of two main lines in computeroriented strategic decision support- quantitative simulation approaches und qualitative knowledge based (expert-) systems. As we will show in this paper the process of strategy making can be improved by combining the two approaches within loop-based strategic decision support systems.The potential of the loop-based strategic decision support approach is demonstrated with the “know-how transfer model” which explains the evolution of multinational corporations in less developed countries and which helps to improve the strategic internationalization and know-how transfer decisions.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Operational games based on System Dynamics models have been used in System Dynamics teaching since the first days of the field. Already in the text Problems in a Industrial Dynamics (D. Packer, MIT Press, 1962) was described the simple production distribution exercise, widely known as “the beer game.” This game is so effective that it has been used in almost every introductory System Dynamics course over the past thirty years. Nevertheless, until the early 1980s there were essentially no further efforts to develop and use System Dynamics games, except for a few management-training exercises developed by consulting companies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Water resource development requires development and operation of expensive facilities. Planning, design, and execution of water resource projects in Iran have been taking a period of time much longer than what is considered as a normal time. In addition, the projects are costing much more than normal. This paper presents a system dynamics model to analyze the behavior of the water resource development system. The paper shows that high cost and long construction time are results of policies that govern decisions related to budget allocation, start of new projects and price of water. The paper shows that how alternative policies could improve the behavior of the system. It is argued that appropriate planning approach for water resource development should consider the feedback mechanism in the water resource development system and concentrate on design policies that control the behavior of the system through those feedback loops.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The purpose of this paper is to compare the efficiency and robustness of policies obtained using alternative system dynamics support methods. The comparison shows the need for creating new methods which combine the efficiency of the optimization methods with the robustness of the modal methods. One of these hybrid methods is the recently developed reference approach which exhibits the best efficiency and robustness.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Pugh-Roberts has developed a number of simulation models to forecast the demand for products in specific markets. These models contain key feedback relationships which create growth, decline, and cycles in the market. They are unique in their integrated representation of macro-economic, micro-economic, and regulatory factors. Their broad scope makes them powerful enough to specifically show the relative importance of industry factors such as manufacturer pricing policies, inventory and production policies, capacity expansion policies, and the timing of new product introduction, in creating or magnifying market cycles. These models are highly valuable because, unlike simple statistical models, they explain the root causes of cyclical behavior and can therefore more accurately predict the timing and severity of market cycles. As a result, the models provide valuable information regarding:
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This model, composed of 12 subsystems and more than 220 equations, discusses various factors concerning water resource and the feedback relations of these factors. Through emulations of the different decision plans, it puts forward the most favorable plans for rational and economical exploitation of water resources, the improvement of water utilization ratio and the best use of water under the conditions of a sound ecological balance.