Online Content

1. Wakeland, Wayne with Megan Hoarfrost, "The Case for Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamics Models"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2z10x763g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T19:36:17Z
Description:
In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study also finds that all of the different kinds of tests were either moderately useful or very useful--fully supporting the recommendations of the experts. An interesting diagram called a "tornado diagram" is used to portray the results of the sensitivity testing.