Online Content

1. Mass, Nathaniel J., "Monetary Policy: A Comparative Study of Economic Forecasting Methodologies"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/m326mk01r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:57Z
Description:
This paper proposes to utilize the Management Technologies' U.S. Economic Model to simulate the same monetary policy tests performed on the three macro-econometric models. Such comparison is likely to be methodologically revealing for several reasons. First, the 'Management Technologies' U.S. model is at least of comparable detail and sophistication to the econometric models. Second, the U.S. Model has been developed for similar purposes of short-term (1-2 years) and medium-term (5-20 years) forecasting and analysis of various industry and government policy measures. Third, the U.S. Model has been extensively validated historically and empirically, so that model details and parameter values are not simply “representative” a priori selections, but meet the dual tests of being a priori satisfactory and historically accurate. Policy tests thus far performed on the U.S. Model in fact illustrate significant differences from the econometric results, both near-term and longer-term.