Online Content

1. Homer, Jack B., "Cocaine Use in America: The Evolution of a Dynamic Model"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1990
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/jd473d35v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:44:32Z
Description:
This paper describes the development of a System Dynamics model of cocaine use in the United States of America. The model’s evolution is presented chronologically as a story in which theory and data have interacted and changed over time. This story may be particularly instructive for those System Dynamics modelers working, under conditions of some change and uncertainty, on extended studies of social behavior. An approach which combines skepticism, flexibility and attention to detail throughout such studies is advocated. When a variety of alternative theories and hypotheses is available, as in many social science applications, it is important to gather a wide spectrum of relevant evidence in order to reduce the risk of model misspecification and improve the study’s effectiveness.