Online Content

1. Arthur, William B. with Robert L. Eberlein, "Sensitivity Simulation"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1996
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
227da936724c4223c5a64764d3922694, ca4810593b2703dcaa087957ab13af91, and 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/37720x01f?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:55:21Z
Description:
Systems dynamics modelers normally develop models and implement findings from a deterministic perspective. This approach has great merit. It focuses attention on system structure and behavior as well as ways to change them. Once developed, however, a good system dynamics model is an excellent tool for analyzing systems behavior under a wide variety of parametric assumptions. Though such sensitivity analysis can (and should) be done manually through repeated simulation, automated tools allow more complete exploration. Moreover, they can provide information on the distribution of outcomes that strongly effects decision-making. In this paper we present the basic ideas behind doing multivariate sensitivity simulations (MVSS) and describe how these have been implemented in Vensim. Then, we present a case study that uses MVSS in the pharmaceutical industry.