This paper examines what differentiates multi-phase software development and integration projects from other complex projects. It argues that effectiveness in identifying defects in the early phases of a project results in early rectification (rework) and initially slows down the project. But, this is necessary to improve likelihood of successful delivery of subsequent phases. Lower levels of effectiveness in identifying defects early, creates the need for higher levels of subsequent rework, raising the possibility of rework of rework. The need for seemingly indeterminate amounts of rework is examined. The key drivers of successful reduction in amounts of rework are investigated through the use of system dynamics modeling and simulation. Most importantly for managers of projects involving software development is that scenario planning can be used to identify where management and engineering efforts are best directed. Through the use of system dynamics modeling and simulation, this can be done before committing to a particular software development project.
A hidden profile is said to exist when (a) information relevant to the decision at hand is distributed over different members of a decision-making group in such a way that each of the group members possesses unique information and (b) group members will need to pool these unique pieces of information in order to select a superior decision alternative. Hidden profiles give rise to inefficient sharing of information, therefore leading to suboptimal decisions. Strategic decision-making is hampered by difficulties in gathering, sharing and integrating information. Information feedback that is dispersed over group members is often ignored. This reflects the existence of hidden profiles. Group Model Building seems capable of discovering hidden profiles in strategic decision-making. The methodology needs investigation in controlled settings to further ground its value. We have conducted an experiment to test the effectiveness of Group Model Building on its contribution to enhancing information sharing and decision quality.
This paper provides lessons learned from developing several large system dynamics (SD) models. System dynamics modeling practice emphasize the need to keep models small so that they are manageable and understandable. This practice is generally reasonable and prudent; however, there are times that large SD models are necessary. This paper outlines two large SD projects that were done at two Department of Energy National Laboratories, the Idaho National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. This paper summarizes the models and then discusses some of the valuable lessons learned during these two modeling efforts.
Under the auspices of the New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance (OTDA), the Division of Disability Determinations (DDD) adjudicates New Yorks Social Security Disability (SSD or Title II) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI or Title XVI) claims according to the requirements of the Social Security Administration (SSA). Over the past few years, DDD has moved from a demand environment to a planned environment to facilitate a responsive rather than reactive approach to workload changes. This report presents the findings of a study that was conducted to examine why the number of initial disability receipts received by DDD has been decreasing since 1998. To accomplish the study, a system dynamics computer simulation model was built to explore various theories that have been put forth as reasons for the decline.
Performance measurement and management have received a great deal of attention in the literature in recent years. However, to date, there is scant attention to dynamics and trade-offs amongst performance indicators in theory and in practice (Santos, Belton et al. 2002). Thus, performance management systems (PMS) have remained static, fragmented, and backward looking (Bourne et al. 2000) leading to adverse outcomes, often unknown to managers and organisations. The systems view of performance, on the other hand, requires for a holistic approach to performance measurement integrating multiple dimensions, functions and time horizons across the enterprise. A systemic performance measurement would take into account the interdependencies of functions and their dynamic influence on the performance of the organisation as a whole. The paper reports on an action research within a multinational company where through real case scenarios we demonstrate how KPIs influence, contribute or impede one another in a manufacturing/supply chain setting. The paper reveals how the use of systems thinking concepts and causal loop models by novice users facilitated an open environment for cross-functional communication and collaborations, leading to team and organisational learning and enhanced performance.
This paper develop a model to access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on development and to assess policy for the penetration of such technologies in Colombia. The model is based on concepts of bounded rationality, i.e. the mental processing capacity and information availability are limited. The model is used for increasing our understanding the complexity of the problem and for policy assessment. It is shown that some policies may increase the penetration of ICT when based on peoples opportunities and desires.
Research, as well as three decades of working with managers across diverse cultures, nationalities, and industries, revealed consistent patterns of counter-productive decision-making in their organisations. Managers appear to exhibit an unmistakable tendency to over-intervene in the systems (companies, organisations, communities, etc) they are responsible for. This indicates an inadequate level of understanding and appreciation of the complex dynamics, hence generating unnecessary fluctuations and instability in their organisations. Maani et al. (2004), Sterman (1989), and Sweeny (2000) have studied these phenomena in experimental and simulated environments respectively. Anecdotal evidence, as well as research results, highlight a number of mental models and assumptions commonly held by managers. One of the most apparent assumptions observed is the notion of the harder you push, the faster it goes, and thus, larger-scaled interventions should result in better performance. This research uses empirical evidence elicited from realistic simulation models of organisations (Microworlds) to shed light upon the relationship between scale of interventions and performance. The results showed that even though large-scaled interventions are effective in the start-up phase of systems, they are generally counter-productive for mature systems operating in steady states. Such results confirm findings from recent research, including the multi-year longitudinal studies of organisations by Collins (2001).
Abstract: This paper is the analysis for the behavioral tendency of the construction waste (CW) volume in Macao from 2006 to 2025. Four sources of CW are selected to be the objects of study, which are assumed to constitute all the CW in Macao. Some related factors, such as area of Macao, the average stay time of tourists, population density are also taken into consideration. STELLA 8 is used to perform the analysis, and correlation analysis of parameters will be carried out by a statistic software SPSS (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Ill.). The simulation result shows that the total CW will reach 530128 cubic meters in 2025. The sum of total CW from 2006 to 2025 will have a volume of 13,818,250 cubic meters. From the results of the simulation, the largest portion of CW is generated by casino and hotel projects, which is the main source of CW in the entire simulation period. This research was supported by the Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau (No.022/2007/A2), Macao Special Administration Area, China.
Based on various employment and technology data in the cultural sector from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s in Seoul, Korea, this research examines whether technology- and human resource-oriented programs exert significant impact on creative manpower and R&D technology level. After briefly introducing Seouls trends in the culture industry, it tries to explain major reinforcing and balancing loops. The stock-flow diagram of the culture industry in Seoul is applied to estimate relative effectiveness of major cultural programs.
This paper presents a system dynamics model to study the spread of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. The HIV/AIDS model includes important feedback mechanisms of the spread of HIV/AIDS, and partly explains the dynamics of the epidemic in a representative Southern African country. The HIV/AIDS model indicates that prevention to reduce risk behavior is crucial in all stages of the epidemic, but is most efficient in an early stage. Financial relief is most appropriate in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.