This paper describes the application of a system dynamics based three-stage methodology (Wolstenholme, 1990) for the assessment of computerized information (CIS), to a proposed military logistics information system.The system in question was nearing the end of the Requirements Definition phase of the System Life Cycle process. A Benefit Assessment had been carried out by the consultants responsible for the design of the system. The Tools used by them had, however, encouraged the conclusion that any improvement in the information system must have a positive effect on organizational effectiveness directly proportional to that level of improvement, and that the overall level of improvement is the sum of individual gains. No study of the interaction of the physical operation and the information system had been carried out.
A system dynamics model of socio-economic development of Harbin in China has been Presented in the framework of the integrated economy-energy-environment system planning.The model simulates the activity mechanism of national economy of Harbin by taking the fixed capital of each industrial sectors as a major variable and controls the system behavior by taking the gap of energy supply and the gap of energy investment as feedback signals. Therefore the pre-established development targets of national economy can be reached by readjusting the investment allocation and production structure towards elimination of the energy and investment gaps.Through a series of policy stimulation, several socio-economic development planning scenarios of Harbin for year 2000 have been Compared with each other by examining some key issues, such as growth rate, investment ratio, investment allocation tenancy and production structure readjustment ad well as the improvement of scientific, technical and managemental level, etc. the resulted policy suggestions were proposed with much attention being paid by decision maker authority.This model can run on the personal computer under the support of the Professional DYNAMO Plus software, and try to connect SD model to other technical model, such as energy forecasting model, multi-object optimum energy supple model, etc. An idea which is about SD co-operated with other methods has been presented and that is the direction of the system dynamics method development.
Nonlinearity is the source of complexity. It gives rise to the change of the system behaviors, the evolution of structures and such phenomena as bifurcation, catastrophe, and even chaos. It is these phenomena, dovetailed with others, that weave out our multicolor and multifold world synergentically. With the development of science and technology, people become more and more interested in and capable of the study of nonlinearity so as to shed light on the nature of the world. In order to deal with nonlinearity more systematically, this paper elaborates a comprehensive description for the dynamical system. Then, we focus on the relationships between the characters of nonlinearity. We have successfully expounded some controversial concepts, cast new light on some important relations, and unified several concepts which are the central topics of many modern theories.
By means of system dynamics, main development modes and strategies on entire coordinated development of science, technology, economy and society of China have been studied. The paper studies the existed development mode and the long term possible obstacles, unfavorable factors and some constraints to the development in its different stages are analyzed quantitatively in the paper. Some long term and short term strategies and policies for continuous and entire coordinated development are presented, based on the system simulation and quasi-optimization.
This paper study how to develop education, technology and economy coordinativetly in central cities. It outlines the kind of issues which analyze and study the ways of describing science and technology level. The importance of the paper has two points: out is an new method being applied to calculate industry output, another is the study guiding line to the three sectors(science and technology, education and economy) in their entirety. The policy suggestions will have significant reference to make central cities’ long term development strategies.
This paper is focusing on study of influence of China’s recent economic adjustments and industrial structure changes on enterprises, particularly on these engaging in manufacturing. The paper analyzes major difficulties facing Shanghai, the largest industrial centre of China, and, using it as background, studies the decision-making strategy of a typical enterprise of Shanghai.
A simulation model of education and economy is used to analyze the education investment strategy in a region of China. The simulation results show the proportion of educational fees and investments must be suited to the economic developing level. Thus, it is necessary to continuously increase the proportions with economic growth. In order to be convenient for decision makers, a functional simulation support system is proposed.
In the paper, a system dynamics model of the Dutch health care system will be discussed. The description of the model will start with so called ‘patients flows’. It will be followed by a description of the most important factors that affect the patient’s flows and the costs generated by the system. Having outlined the system dynamics model, the outcomes of three policy alternatives aimed at reducing the costs of health care will be examined. They will serve to demonstrate that the system dynamic model does have the potential to be used in workshops to elicit and increase the knowledge policy makers have regarding the problem of rising costs of health care.
Many system dynamics modelers consider the process of model-building more important than the model itself. Model-building is supposed to generate considerable learning about a policy problem. Not only at the individual level but also at the organizational level. From the point of view of empirical evaluation research the question is how the occurrence of organizational learning as a consequence of a model-building process might be established. In this paper we will explore some of the key issues and difficulties involved in establishing organizational learning from model-building empirically.
A key issue in building computer models for decision support with client groups is the elicitation of knowledge from the mental models of participants. The system dynamics model-building process is quite complex and consists of several stages each demanding different types of knowledge to be elicited from the client group. In this paper we discuss a structured approach, employing various techniques, for the elicitation of knowledge in formulating and analyzing a system dynamics model of the Dutch Health Care System.