Online Content
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- A system dynamics model is developed to describe how insurgency groups pursue funding for their operations and the choices they make in how they allocate these funds to maintain their operations and advance their causes. The model illustrates that the insurgent groups, under survival pressure, will seek necessary resources to continue their operations by any means necessary regardless of ideology or higher goals. This self-preservation hypothesis is predicated on evidence-based counter-insurgency research. The model focuses on four primary activities of the insurgency: force maintenance, public relations, commission of violent acts, and community outreach. The model shows how decisions to re-allocate resources among these four activities, affects the overall financial well-being of the insurgency. Indeed, the model can be used to determine the pressure points of an insurgency which may provide insight in how to financially damage such an organization.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- When it comes to making tough decisions in dynamic environments, decision makers usually do not
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- Since 2005, there has been an opportunity for joint reflection about the quality of the peer review process at each conference. In the subsequent conferences, discussin became more structured and this year, a substantial effort has been made. Still there remains work to be done in order to arrive at a policy that would achieve a satisfactory balance between paper and presentation quality on one side and other goals of the conference on the other. This year's meeting is the opportunity to discuss a set of indicators to express the presentation and paper quality perceived by attendees; also we can assess up to which point the new policies have yielded improvements. Reviewers, chairs and organizers are specially invited to give their input.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- Some large system dynamics models drive simulator interfaces used for teaching; this is the case of the MacroLab model. Such a model may be useful for making students with basic instruction in system dynamics explore the economy as a dynamic system, allowing for diverse inquiry itineraries. The question is if different exploration itineraries yield sufficiently similar learning outcomes. This has been tried with ten student groups. The results are encouraging, but also indicate that the inquiry scenario design should be based on systematic analysis of the modelâs structure: some variables may not be reachable from everywhere. An ad-hoc structure exploration found such isolated areas. The use of a reachability matrix is suggested and an initial example is shown. Also, students need systematic guidance in constructing a loop set that will frame their exploration. Concluding, it is argued that this kind of instructional design may bring other large system dynamics models closer to instructional use.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- This paper deals with the representation of mental models of dynamic systems (MMDS). The notion of mental model (MM) has always been fundamental in system dynamics, and 10 years ago, a specific definition was introduced. However, no conceptual model of MMDS content has been offered so far. Two assessment and comparison methods have been borrowed from general MM research:. Are these methods are equivalent in procedure and results, and do they satisfy specific needs of system dynamics? Two exemplary MMDAs are compared with both of the methods, which are found to be different in procedure and in results they produce. In addition, they ignore the feedback loop concept. Based on this finding, we propose a conceptual model for the structure of MMDS, a method for comparing MMDSs and a tentative revised definition of MMDS. The application to the exemplary models shows some alleged advantages. A preliminary conclusion is that more discussion and comparative work are needed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- The integration between health and social care organisations in the UK is an acknowledged public policy problem. Despite government efforts at implementing âjoined up thinkingâ, government have found this area frustratingly âpolicy resistantâ.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- Organized crime satisfies a demand for necessary social services in the absence of effective government institutions. This paper examines the rise of the Sicilian mafia. Using system dynamics, we model this system and test various policies to determine what factors have the greatest impact on mafia power. Based on the experiments, the most effective policies for reducing mafia power are those that decrease the demand for private protection services by reducing the threat of banditry in society, and not those policies that act against the mafia directly. We also examine historical examples of other mafia-type organizations and discover that our findings apply not just to Sicily, but also to other societies including present-day Iraq and Afghanistan.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- This paper presents preliminary results of a Raytheon project that uses systems dynamics to understand the intricacies of the U.S. educational system and to assist in exploring the effects of policies and programs, with a goal of doubling the numbers of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) college graduates by 2015. Specifically, a system dynamics model has been developed, the initial version of which targets increasing the number of students both capable and interested in pursuing careers in STEM disciplines. A few scenarios have been analyzed that examine changes for improving student capabilities. Initial results provide insight into the value and viability of a few proposed policies and indicate that with continued research, model development, and analysis it will be possible to further assess proposed improvements in the U.S education system.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- Pests and other undesirable populations offer considerable resilience to interventions attempting to limit or eradicate them. These interventions often directly aim at reducing these populations through either by limiting their procreation or accelerating their demise. For example, stray dogs roam the streets of many major Asian cities in spite of the efforts to euthanize or castrate them. Street gangs and the violence associated with them continue in many North American cities in spite of considerable effort on part of law and order institutions to contain them. Suicide attacks menacing public continue in central Asian countries like Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan in spite of the concerted military offensives to eradicate their perpetrators. This poster will suggest that a latent capacity enablement structure that maintains the inflow into the undesirable population exists in all such cases. Interventions not cognizant of this structure may only address symptoms and not alleviate the root cause. The capacity enablement process as a generic metaphor may help to bring the latent root cause to fore.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2009 July 26-2009 July 30
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84, and 4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7
- Description:
- This paper re-defines two hypothetical laws of capital accumulation by including endogenous profit investment share and establishing an explicit inverse relation between this share and capital-output ratio. Other main state variables are labour productivity, employment ratio and unit value of labour force. A comprehensive Phillips equation, governing real labour compensation, is an element of a hypothetical law (HL-IR). Projecting future macroeconomic evolution takes into account structural changes in primary distribution of net value added. After the recent neo-conservative defeat there is no place for stabilising policy with the same or similar aggressiveness as in 2002-2007. Based on the US macroeconomic data mainly for 1969-2007, computer simulation runs for a later period (through 2060) exhibit how a postponed non-aggressive application of CL-IR in 2012 and afterwards could smooth out long waves of capital accumulation and shorten a period of fluctuations from 24-27 to 14-16 years in the restructured US economy compared to evolution based on HL-IR. The present stern crisis of the capital accumulation, probably deepest after the World War II, will last until 2018-2022 when the pre-crisis maximum of net output is restored and 2023-2026 when the pre-crisis maximum of employment is reached again.