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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- A division of a large textile company was chosen as the focus of a system dynamics study to determine how management would respond to any capacity adjustment problem. The company produces fabrics for household as well as industrial uses and the annual sales of the company are several billion dollars. The division under study produces yarn and piece dyed draperies, mattress tickings, and upholstery fabrics. The four major manufacturing processes in the division are spinning, yarn preparation, fabric formation and fabric dyeing and finishing. Although not aimed at any particular perceived problems, the study was undertaken with two purposes, firstly to develop a system dynamics model that would describe the performance of the division and secondly to use the mode to investigate the effects of demand changes on various capacity adjustment policies practiced in the division. The study includes interactions among a large number of factors in forecasting and inventory control, raw material supplies, employment, and production capacity. These factors related to some ten points and four processes of the division. Data and other information have been collected by questionnaires and interviews with management. The model has been tested for its validity in representing the actual operations. The model is now being used in testing some of the policies in response to change in customer order rate.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- A static and a dynamic model of the oil market are compared. Three major differences appear in forecasts. The dynamic model fluctuates around the static mode equilibrium price. The dynamic model shows greater uncertainty in trend development. The dynamic model forecast overshoots the cost level of synthetic oil.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- How should a causal loop diagram be drawn to explain structure as clearly as possible? Two basic rules are formulated: Feedback-loops should be drawn with loop-form, and influence should be unidirectional through each variable. An example shows that application of the two rules leads to enhanced clarity. Artistic derivations from the two rules can be used to produce memorable figures. Current practice in causal loops diagramming indicates a potential for improvements.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- This paper presents a flexible, model-based approach to strategic program design--the process of putting together consistent business programs and policies to support new strategic initiatives. The new approach combines ideas from administrative theory and feedback theory. Administrative theory reveals the organizational and diffusion processes that connect business programs and customers. Feedback theory reveals patterns (feedback loops) in the connections between programs and policies of a business and its market. This conceptual framework is applied to strategic program design in a two-phase analysis which is much more flexible than traditional system dynamics business modeling. Phase 1 is a descriptive analysis that explores business-market structure in terms of organizational and diffusion processes, showing where conflicts of responsibility, confused incentives, misinformation, and administrative inertia may degrade business performance. Phase 2 uses simulation modeling and the descriptive information from phase 1 to debate policy options and program design. The style of analysis is illustrated with business cases and applications projects.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- The simple two-sector Kondratieff model developed by John Sterman has contributed significantly to our understanding of some of the basic mechanisms underlying the economic long wave. The dynamic hypothesis of this model is that the positive feed-back associated with the so-called self-ordering of capital reinforces and prolongs the characteristic expansions and contractions of the capital sector as it adjusts its capacity to the required production. It is assumed that this feed-back can be strong enough to produce a self-sustained oscillation (a limit cycle) with a period which is about twice as long as usual capital lifetimes. Concentrating on the ordering and production of capital, the Sterman model only depicts a relatively small fraction of our economic system. At least in its original version, the model doesn't deal with several of the basic phenomena involved in the verbal description of the economic long wave, as it is usually presented. There is no account of variations in employment, buying power or political attitudes, for instance, and changes in the rate of innovations are also outside the model boundary. We do not think that one can presently develop a complete and satisfactory model of the economic long wave. We have therefore adopted an alternative starting point by assuming that the alternating phases of economic expansion and stagnation arrise from the succession of technical-economic cultures each characterized by its own infrastructure, leading industrial sectors, typical production methods and main products. Even the geographical location of the dominant political-economic center may shift from wave to wave. This is Mensch's process of metamorphosis. Where the Sterman approach emphasizes the cyclic character of the wave, our model is meant to describe the qualitative changes through which one set of technologies replaces the next. In our model, the economic system has no equilibrium point to oscillate around. As long as technology develops and new discoveries are made, the potential for economic activity continues to grow. A purpose of the model is therefore to show how randomly distributed discoveries can be bunched into waves of innovations with a relatively well defined period.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- Using System Dynamics as the primary tool of investigation, an attempt has been made in this paper to present (i) a general model of commodity price fluctuation, (ii) a price stabilization policy based on buffer stock, and (iii) the impact of this policy on the long term growth of the commodity industry. The model has been tested for the case of Indian Tea.Average unit cost of the commodity at the point of sale, operating profit margin desired by the sellers (computed on the basis of average quality of supply), actual inventory, and the average sales rate are considered as the chief determinants of the commodity price. Circular relationships among these variables have been considered to generate the price fluctuation over time. While testing the price stabilization policy, the model considers its operation phase. It is shown in this paper that such a price stabilization policy tremendously boosts the overall long term growth of the industry.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- The System Dynamics model described in this paper presents a new approach to the mechanisms of subcutaneous absorption of dissolved insulin. Experimental investigations have shown that the apparent absorption constant varies in time, and that this variation depends both on the volume and the concentration of the injected insulin. Our model assumes that insulin is present in the subcutaneous depot in three forms: (i) a dimeric form, (ii) a hexameric form, and (iii) an immobile form in which the molecules are bound in the tissue. The model describes how diffusion and absorption gradually reduce the insulin concentrations and thereby shift the balance between three forms according to usual laws of chemical kinetics. By assuming that only dimeric molecules can penetrate the capillary wall, we have found that the model can fully account for the observed variations in the absorption rate. At the same time the model can be used to determine at least 5 parameters characterizing the involved processes: the diffusion constant for insulin in the subcutaneous tissue, the absorption constant for dimeric insulin, the equilibrium constant for the dimeric/hexameric polymerization process, the binding capacity for the insulin in the tissue, and the average life time for insulin in bound state. Combined with a simplified model of the distribution and degradation of insulin in the body, the diffusion-absorption model has been used to simulate different insulin delivery schedules, i.e. a single major injection contra dosage with infusion pump. The model has shown that a pump repetition frequency of 1-2/hr can secure a sufficiently constant plasma insulin concentration.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- This paper examines the dynamics of “worker burnout”, the process in which a hard-working individual becomes increasingly exhausted, frustrated, and unproductive. The author’s own two-year experience with repeated cycles of burnout is qualitatively reproduced by a small system dynamics model which portrays the underlying psychology of “workaholism”. Model tests demonstrate that the limit cycle seen in the base run can be stabilized through techniques which diminish work related stress or enhance relaxation. These stabilizing techniques also serve to raise overall productivity, since they support a higher level of energy and more working hours on average. One important policy lever is the maximum workweek or “work limit”; an “optimal work limit” at which overall productivity is at its peak is shown to exist within a region of stability where burnout is avoided. The paper concludes with a strategy for preventing burnout which emphasizes the individual’s responsibility for understanding the self-inflicted nature of this problem and pursuing an effective course of stability.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- The scope of this paper is to present our views on teaching System Dynamics and Dynamo in our courses in System Analysis at Uppsala University. We treat the pedagogical aspects as well as the hardware and software system we built around Dynamo. A large part of this article is devoted to ideas and constructive criticism of System Dynamics and Dynamo which we have acquired from our experiences in education and research.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1984
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
- Descripción:
- The System Dynamics National Model is a large computer simulation model of a typical industrialized economy, with its parameters adjusted to reflect the size and character of the United States. The model's purpose is twofold: understanding the major difficulties of the aggregate economy such as inflation, business cycles, and slowing productivity growth; and to facilitate the evaluation of policies to influence those behaviors. In the existing publications on results from the National Model, the structure of the model is described in a page or two, doing no more than supplying a flavor for the scope of the model. This paper goes to the next stage in describing the content and structure of the model for those readers with some previous exposure to the results of the National Model research. The discussion starts with the overall architecture, then goes through the major connections among the sectors of the model, and concludes with one example of more detailed structure: the interrelations among selected decisions in the corporate sector of the model.