By means of a study in the application of System Dynamics theory and approach, a quantitative analysis of the coordinative development of the main agricultural productions in Heilongliang Province is made, constructing a simulation model of system dynamics which is composed of farming, forestry, animal husbandry fishery, land resoures and population.The relationships between the various productions mentioned above, as well as between the internal variables within each production are correctly described in the model. Simulation analyses on the relationships between various productions and between the internal variables within each production, by using the model, are made and, at the same time, many programs which have advantages for the coordinative development of various productions result from these analyses.
This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between transportation and other industries with system dynamics theory and method. We develop a system dynamics model to protray how the transportability influences other industries, and have made some computer simulation in which we simulated the dynamic characteristics of the system at different alternatives of investment.In the simulation, we properly reduced the investment in heavy industry and increase the investment in transportation, while the total amount of the investment is the same. The output value of heavy industry didn't decrease, on the contrary, it increased. At the same time, the output value of other industries and national income increased too. This indicates that the transportability directly influences the output value of other industries.From the simulation result we also see that the investment in transportation of China is too small and this leads to the situation that the development of transportation can't meet the demand of national economics in China.This paper is a application example of how system dynamics is used to solve problems of social economics. This research will help people to know the importance of transportation in national economics and government to make policy.
It is necessary to test a newly built model to make sure that it does simulate the actual system. The test may include many aspects, such as sensitive test, comparison test with history data, etc. This paper studies sensitive test and presents some results of the findings.In studying the structure of a given system, the endogenous variables and exogenous variables are given explicitly. If we can not tell the difference between them correctly, it may confuse the real meaning of the sensitive test.In the present analysis we find that the conditions for non-sensitivity of variables to a model are: 1) the change is made for one variable only and 2) the change is small. The conditions for sensitivity of the variables to the model are: 1) two or more variables change at the same time and 2) the change is great. A model may also become sensitive for a small change of the exogenous variable.The above results have been thoroughly investigated and the methods of the sensitive test are presented.
Most of the developing countries are faced the problem how to allocate limited resource to education to promote economy growth. In this paper, the System Dynamics methodology is employed to solve the problem. The interactions between education, economy and Science-Technology (S&T), and the inherent mechanism of education and economy are studied. Based on these studies, a system dynamics model for the national education and economy development is established. According to the actual socio-economic situation of China, several different resource allocation policies for education are tested on the model. Finally, some useful policy suggestions about resource allocation for education are given, such as the proper ratio of education expenditure to national income and the proper ratios of resources allocated to different levels of education.
It is no doubt that China is now facing a challenge of inflation: quick prices rising, over issued monetary, rapid growing total social demand and unsufficient production supply....The present paper studies the inflation issue in China in terms of the macroeconomic theory of system dynamics, in order to find the fundamental causes and the self-promoting mechanism of inflation in China. In this paper, factors of total social demand, monetary issue, etc. have been qualitatively and quantitatively discussed, some policy tests have been made, and finally the new viewpoints and suggestions which help to cut down inflation are put forward. It is a new test to study inflation by system dynamics instead of by regression or curve fitting.
Based on the mechanism of interaction among R&D, technological progress, the change of industrial structure, and economic growth in both supply and demand sides, and with the help of dynamic input-output analysis, in this paper a system dynamics model is constructed, focusing on the notable impacts of technological change on structural change in the Chinese economy. Through modelling and policy analysis,some new findings and patterns of long-term development, including the preferential consequences and opportunity for industrial development, future prospects for China's S&T and economy during the next fifty years, the evolution of industrial structure in the process of industrialization, and resource allocation to different industries and R&D expenditure allocation, are obtained.
This paper studies the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition in the industrialization process of China, dealing with the mechanism of interaction between R&D and tech-acquisition. It also deals with the mechanism of limited resources allocation in capital investment to R&D and tech-acquisition areas. A system dynamics model about the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition is developed.
This paper will outline the concept of system dynamics optimisation using the DYSMOD software and present a case study of its use to analyse a defence problem. The insights into the problem, which were generated from a conventional system dynamics model and its policy design experiments, will be given. This will be followed by the presentation of results from a set of optimisation experiments, utilising a range of objective functions and structural design parameters. The paper will focus on the value added to the understanding of the problem which resulted from this process. The overall conclusion is that optimisation subsumes conventional sensitivity analysis as well as providing an holistic interpretation of the behaviour of a system dynamics model.
It was once suggested to me, half jokingly perhaps, that System Dynamics offers “2nd -Generation Expert Systems – before the 1st Generation”. This paper reconciles the theories and processes, and draws upon business consulting assignments, to examine how close to reality this notion is.
System Dynamics began thirty years ago as a bold attempt to apply engineering analysis concepts to business systems. But from the late 1960s onward, most System Dynamic research focused on public policy problems. Business applications have grown steadily, though less visibly and primarily outside academia. For example, over the past twenty-five years, Pugh-Roberts Associates has completed hundreds of management consulting assignments using System dynamics for clients in the financial services, aerospace, electronics, telecommunications, computer, chemical shipbuilding, transportation, electric power, energy, and natural resources industries. Some of the best-known, most successful businesses throughout the world have System Dynamics.