Online Content
El número de resultados a mostrar por página
Ver Resultados por:
Resultados de la búsqueda
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- In a supply chain system, movements in the end-customer demand is amplified throughout the chain as one moves from the lowest echelon (retailer) to upper echelons (wholesaler, distributor, factory). It is reported that this amplification, which is known as the bullwhip effect, can significantly be reduced by sharing the end-customer demand information. In this paper, we first introduce a four-echelon supply chain model, add penalty variables to it, and simulate the model under two conditions; with and without sharing the end-customer demand information. We observe similar results as reported by other researchers; sharing the end-customer demand information has a strong effect in decreasing the amplification, which also results as decreased penalty values. We then introduce a new approach that requires sharing of further information and run the model with the new decision making heuristic based on this new approach. According to the simulation runs, the decision making heuristic suggested in this paper results in further improvement.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- The advent of a depopulating society has become apparent in Japanese economy. There is a rising concern that a declining population diminishes Japanese economic growth. This concern is much more significant in regional economies, in which aging workers in the basic industry or an excessive population decline have been longstanding problems, than the national economy. I have developed a quantitative method for population and economic forecasting to examine the current status of a declining population. Linking the population estimates, which are consistent with the population census, to the macroeconomic model with gross domestic product by industry, we are able to examine the effect of a depopulating society on the regional economy. The simulation of this model reveals following future pictures: industries, which are dependent on domestic demand, will decline and per capita income will increase for the while. A declining population has an impact not only on macroeconomic outcomes but also on microeconomic aspects inside the region. Many core areas in the economic growth are losing their positions. I will also point out that the interdependency between core areas and peripheral areas has started changing.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- Being intensified by the recent financial crisis in 2008,
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- Considering rapid population growth and urbanization, sustainability assessment
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of informal communication networks on the implementation process of innovations within organizations. Therefore, a System-Dynamics model is built to simulate and analyze implementation-specific dynamics that influence implementation effectiveness. The findings of this study suggest that senior management of an organization can use its limited resources more effectively by focusing on employee groups that are connected to each other and by isolating excluded groups from other groups that are not influenced by senior management. In addition, managers should only apply pressure on groups until a specific tipping point is reached after which the innovation diffuses by itself within the respective group. Major limitations of the study are that only one network structure was examined and that all groups are considered to be homogeneous.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- The average life expectancy of a company is sadly only 40-50 years. You would think that a company lifetime could easily surpass our lifetimes because many generations can work at a company and pass down its products, brands, know-how, competencies, customer base, etc. to successive generations. But ultimately companies die because they fail to adapt and change. One area of adaption that is the most difficult to navigate is when to start de-investing in the traditional markets that initially built the company, and to invest in building new markets. Too many companies get themselves caught in a trap of continual investment in their core markets, which are no longer growing and missing out on growth adjacencies that can fuel the companys next generation of growth. This paper will explore the reinforcing feedback loops and systemic delays that cause most companies to invest too much and too long in their traditional market and recommends a new R&D portfolio management process that breaks this cycle. Its critical that companies understand what drives long-term success and how to fund innovation and change in a methodical way.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- This paper is the first of two that focus on the policy design phase of system dynamics modeling. The
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- Current research on river ecosystems in Taiwan is mostly focused on water conservancy, ecology, and afforested viewpoints. There is a lack of integrated strategy on urban river ecosystem management. This study aims to examine river quality based on ecological safety. By means of systems engineering technology, the related ecological safety operation mechanisms have been analyzed. Also, through the new Fuzzy Delphi expert survey, the index system of urban river ecological safety (IES) has been compiled in order to explore the variables. The key indicators affecting urban river ecology safety can be fully defined by sensitivity analysis in order to engage in effectiveness evaluation and to create a dynamic simulation model. The study results indicate that the strategic implementation of improved embankment vegetation structure, a reduction in the degree of river channelization, and the maintenance of a high degree of longitudinal connectivity of rivers can effectively enhance the urban river ecology risk prevention, strengthen the efficient use of resources, and promote the sound development of urban river ecology.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- A practitioners perspective on the calibration of complex system dynamics models is described in the context of a specific project in which a large, complex business training simulation model was converted from one language into I-Think® and design flaws in the original implementation were corrected. The model utilized 57 inputs and provided 296 outputs. The fact that calibration interacts with verification and validation is acknowledged, as well as the fact that the calibration strategy required for large models may not scale practically to smaller models. In additional to traditional best practices such as units checking, sensitivity testing, transient testing and graphical comparison, the paper focuses on a) simplifying and isolating interactions via submodels, using shims, slowing down feedback loops, creating cause and effect maps, testing at submodel level, and checking qualitative variables; b) Redesigning along the way; c) carefully documenting throughout the process; d) knowing when to step away; and e) building/acquiring automated tools. Having a calibration strategy for a large model is essential. The time required to apply the recommended methods can be significant, but the benefits clearly outweigh these costs. Nevertheless, even experienced modelers often wait too long before initiating the necessary disciplines.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e35e9d46c0556df862a8fbb9e32d2143, and 28441c340962a2b363963713d1bba533
- Descripción:
- 18 days, 850+ martyrs, 6500+ injured are all the quantitative facts of one side