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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Competitive bidding system, bearing the advantages of simplicity and fairness, is expected to encourage economic benefits through the free market competition mechanism. However, as the characteristics of construction industry are different from those of other industries, many issues such as abnormal low-bids and poor project quality have been derived from the competitive bidding system, and hinder the development of the construction market. By using System Dynamics this research developed a contractors pricing model consisting of two intended economic feedback structures with competitive bidding philosophy and an unexpected adverse one, namely Opportunistic Bidding feedback structure. The results suggest that the ideal competitive bidding system is only effective when contractors opportunistic bidding behaviors are restrained. The emphasis of governments policies should be placed on inhibiting the Opportunistic Bidding, as it is the leverage point to improve the efficiency of public construction market.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- It is well known that the long distance telecom service providers suffered heavy damage in the aftermath of the telecom bubble. What is it about the telecom industry that drove participants to fall victim of the bubble dynamics despite historical understanding of the destructive consequences of past bubbles? Was the bubble simply the result of a perfect storm, or was it an inevitable reflection of industry dynamics? To what degree did the bubble arise from irrational exuberance and misperception of demand growth, and to what degree did it simply reflect pathological emergent behavior arising from individually rational actors? The answer to such questions are interesting historically, but may also help provide insights for regulators and enterprises. The objective of the analysis described in this paper is firstly to use system dynamics to characterize the telecom bubble phenomena, secondly to analyze and understand the mechanism of the telecom bubble, and thirdly to utilize the model to make preliminary recommendations that may help to lower the risk of similar phenomena in the future. The model provided insight into the impact of factors such as technological advancement, misinformation concerning demand growth, competition among network service providers, and the impact of demand forecasting techniques.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- In this article we present results of different experiments with the Beer Distribution Game focusing on decision patterns and the effect of varying information on the decision quality. Besides the known decision patterns such as the ordering heuristic presented by Sterman (1989) and the well investigated bullwhip effect in the Beer Distribution Game, we make two other observations. First, as an extension to available studies, we suggest that decision behavior could be explained by policies that change over time. Second, a non linear relationship between the anchor and the decision is presented and contrasted to the linear heuristic. Information seems to play an important role in the decision making process, but the effect is not necessarily positive. This could be explained by coordination problems. Overall, the complexity of the Beer Distribution Game raises various questions about the experimental design.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper examines the role of system dynamics in corporate strategic development. A framework for strategic development is introduced based on an analogy with feedback control. The strengths and limitations of the analogy are discussed. The basic framework is then extended to include strategic rehearsal as a virtual feedback process' at the corporate level to test and modify strategic initiatives before and during implementation. System dynamics is one effective way to provide such virtual feedback. An example is given based on a modelling project for a company in fast-moving consumer goods. The purpose of the project was to investigate the strategic implications of a new product launch in a highly competitive industry. There is a description of how the model was conceptualised with the management team and a review of simulations that were helpful in assessing the strategic initiative. The paper concludes with comments on the insights from the project.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The Swiss Chapter consists of researchers, educators, consultants, and practitioners in the corporate and public sectors. Approximately 110 people receive our e-mails and about twenty of them have paid our newly introduced membership fee so far. The number of participants in chapter meetings has been around ten ever since we first met in 2003 (although there are distinct oscillations). Additional activities involve enhancing academic and consulting competences as well as educational programs. Chapter meetings are organized where we usually combine a presentation about System Dynamics in action with the discussion of organizational issues. With such a structure we try to maximize the benefits of our members. Our key conclusion so far is that there are quite some people in Switzerland who deal one way or another with System Dynamics. Everyone in this heterogeneous group is ultimately motivated to reach his or her individual SD related goals. The value added by the Chapter lies in the provision of networking, learning and exchange opportunities.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This article presents a System Dynamics model that determines the optimal level in which to invest in information security and wish to reflect delay which can happen between factors and analyze information security investment effect. We Look into how investment of information security can have an effect on information security while analyzing the causal factors in information secure industry. Finally, research feedback loop which decreases necessity of information secure when satisfaction is fully enough because of information security investment. Keywords: information security (IS), investment of IS, side effect, optimum level of IS, System Dynamics.
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Komanapalli, Golda with Michael S. Kennedy, "Representing Logic/Reasoning in System Dynamics Models"
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper intends to fuel a thought about representing and extracting reasoning in System Dynamics (SD) models. A perspective on the flow of information as policies in the system and also flow of information as logical structure or reasoning of the model is discussed. It also discusses how influences in the model are implemented as rate equations and challenges the impossibility in deriving rate equations from the qualitative model. This paper raises concerns that the qualitative SD model normally describes the principle behaviour of the system in dual mode whether a growth or decline and omits the structure of reasoning in the model. Finally this paper argues that the logical structure of policies, if effectively represented at the formulation stage would open a channel for a revived and renewed process of developing SD models
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Housing premises rent has been big socio-economic and political issue in the Czech Republic for a long time. The calculation model of maximum rent for square metre of a housing unit has been changed several times since the year 1994. It has not been assessed stable policy in this branch. As a consequence of this was expensive housing premises rent particularly in Prague. A new law concerning one-sided rent increase should bring a clearer concept. The law was authorized by parliament on 1/3/2006, will come into force by 1/10/2006 and will stand by 31/9/2012. The purpose of the project has been to create a price trends dynamic model of housing premises rent in Czech Republic in this period. All study has been divided into two parts. First one of them includes price trends of rent analysis between the years 1994 and 2005. There are introduced approaches to rent calculations and its values in Prague for various flats categories including rent increases. The second part deals with a price trends dynamic model of housing premises rent according to new law noted in full paper. There is also described the calculation model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Paper presents a system dynamics approach for modeling mobile service competitive market of the region and forecasting market development. The model includes dynamic competition between operators. The pricing policy, service quality, subscriber base, potential subscribers, marketing, etc influence their number of subscribers. The task of defining the market share carrying capacity to forecast the sales process is described. The method for the saturation level identification is considered and the problem of the optimal pricing is formulated. Real data from several regions of Russia are used in this paper.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper addresses the influence of individual and group information feedback on a decision process supported by the application of system dynamics model. The experiment considered the task of strategy determination with an explicitly defined criteria function under three experimental conditions: a1) individual strategy determination supported by just Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) explanation, a2) determination of strategy with application of the system dynamics (SD) model without group interaction, and a3) determination of strategy with application of the SD model with restricted subject interaction supported by group information feedback. The hypothesis that model application and group feedback information positively influence the convergence of the decision process and contribute to higher criteria function values was confirmed. However, the difference of frequency of simulation runs suggested that group membership might have affected the group work. To eliminate this possibility, we have introduced a pseudo-Solomon experimental design. A model of learning was developed as well.