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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- A cost structure is presented for the development projects based on two kinds of cost: base cost and progress cost. The base cost is necessary to keep a project alive and ready for real progress. The progress cost is to make physical progress in the project. A dynamic model is made and simulated to show the behavior of this cost structure. The model shows that when development budget is not sufficient to pay for all the required expenses of an ongoing development projects, total cost of development projects would increase and completion time of the projects would rise. Insufficiency of development budget occurs either by decline of government revenues or by start of too many new projects. In the face of insufficient budget, it becomes very crucial to decrease the starting rates of new projects. By decreasing the number of starting projects, the behavior of the model in terms of completion time and unit cost of the projects improves considerably when budget insufficiency appears.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- The paper reports on a new approach for the building of Decision Support Systems based on System Dynamics and Expert Systems. The power of this approach is illustrated by using it to identify problems that exist within the production processes of a manufacturing company. System Dynamics was used to simulate the production processes and build the expert system. The simulation identifies the process where the problem exists, and the Expert System suggests possible causes to the problem and the solutions required to bring production back to normal.Stella was the System Dynamics tool used to gain a detailed understanding of the production processes and their interactions in order to build a simulation model. The influences from this simulation were used to structure the knowledge base of an expert system. While the expert system was an essential ingredient of the Decision Support System, the actual system that was used and its features were of secondary importance.This paper will benefit System Dynamic practitioners who are interested in: 1) simulating a process within an organisation., 2) the application of System Dynamics to solve a manufacturing problem.,3) the relationship between System Dynamics and building of Experts Systems., 4) the use of System Dynamics as a decision making/support tool in the manufacturing industry.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- As it is well known, the explicit representation of systems structure (e.g.: causal diagrams) is one of the main features of System Dynamics. In my view, this precious tool is perhaps being neglected or, more precisely, not utilised to the full when building and using models and games. In this way, the structure of the systems is hidden and the transparency of the models is lost. This can be especially negative in games which not allow the players to access the structure. That can leads to a decision making not based on the causes but on the symptoms, as standard black box games do.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- American and European firms use just in time prototypes which are subsets of the japanese just in time system. Hence, these firms need tools to select those components of the japanese JIT system best suited to their particular characteristics and environments. This paper proposes one of such tools and illustrates its application on a case study. The proposed tool is a computer aided procedure that implements system dynamics principles using a continuous-discrete simulation language.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- According to the theory of dissipative structure and the features of the evolution of population in China, the evolutionary equations for the population of cities and towns in every province (except Taiwan and Hainan) of China are obtained. By these equations spatial distribution from 1980 to 1984 and future evolution are shown. Some natures of population in China are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- In modern era, many system theories and methods have been applied in the industrial enterprise. It is obvious that the quality problems, as one aspect of system, is the one deserving much more important considerations.There are many reasons for studying the quality problem as a system. For example, the enterprises pursued benefits by the way of high quality, although over- done quality is not the best. We should consider it as a system problem. There are many modern management theories such as IE (Industrial Engineering), QC (Quality Control), OR (Operation Research), ZD (zero - defect), PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). If these theories and methods can be applied under the thoughts of Economical Quality System Analysis, it will show the great potentiality.This paper applying the SD theory and method, declares the concept of EQS, attempting to achieve three goals; 1. To analyze the relationship among the Quality-- Cost -- Profit, and seek the best combination of these two factors: Quality and Benefits. 2. To discuss, the appropriate quality level, the combina-tion of Quality and benefit in the process of product design, manufacturing, and sales.3. To study the internal feedback structure, and the model of quality and benefit of industrial enterprises.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Owing to development of the cubic construction of modern cities and the protective functions of underground space against the disasters such as earthquake and air raids by modern weapons, the development of urban underground space and the construction of protective sheltering against disasters have become an important policy for many cities. Nevertheless, contradictions between investment and benefit as well as between protection and economy will often occur as a result of the very expensive cost of underground space development. As managers of system, they tend to need to understand these problems and adopt effective measures to find out solutions for them. The method of System Dynamics is no doubt a useful tool for the studies of such problems.This paper has established a system dynamic model about urban underground space development and civil defence construction, including development fund raising, fund distribution, urban underground space construction, subways (i.e., underground railway) construction, urban population and the other auxiliary business dealings performed by the development departments. The model has successfully solved the problem of offering methods for the efficiency of protecting against disasters, the social and economic benefits of urban underground space development and civil defence construction. It reveals the feedback and circulation mechanism and tendency of urban underground space development and civil defence construction.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- This paper presents two approaches to forecast the National Finance Income (NFI) and the Amount of Currency Circulation (ACC) of China . Firstly it uses Combined Hierarchical Periodic Adjustment (CHPA) forecasting approach, which fully considers the periodic characteristics of the stochastic time-varying financial system, to forecast the national finance income, and then it uses Controlled Auto-Regressive models with Multi-Step Recursive (MSR) algothrim to forecast the amount of currency circulation, both have got better results.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Since society developing and technology progressing, product’s life period is going to short. Meanwhile market competition is getting more intense. Factory has to develop new products required by martket rapidly so that factory can get developing. This paper applies system dynamics model to simulate a process of new products developed in a factory, finds problems, put forward scheme of solving problems. The factory has carried out this scheme, the period of new products developed has been shorted 50 per cent. Some new products have occupied market rapidly.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- We have been using system dynamics with the management team of a consumer electronics company to investigate problems in training, inventory control and debt handling. In this paper we describes how the modelling approach was introduced to the company and subsequently used to support management team decision making. A small model of a direct mail campaign shows how the modelling process improved team understanding and inventory and demand dynamics. Building on experience from the project we comment on conditions for model building (training, team make-up, facilitation, model size, role of the computer) that encourage the active participation of management teams.