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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- Research, as well as three decades of working with managers across diverse cultures, nationalities, and industries, revealed consistent patterns of counter-productive decision-making in their organisations. Managers appear to exhibit an unmistakable tendency to over-intervene in the systems (companies, organisations, communities, etc) they are responsible for. This indicates an inadequate level of understanding and appreciation of the complex dynamics, hence generating unnecessary fluctuations and instability in their organisations. Maani et al. (2004), Sterman (1989), and Sweeny (2000) have studied these phenomena in experimental and simulated environments respectively. Anecdotal evidence, as well as research results, highlight a number of mental models and assumptions commonly held by managers. One of the most apparent assumptions observed is the notion of the harder you push, the faster it goes, and thus, larger-scaled interventions should result in better performance. This research uses empirical evidence elicited from realistic simulation models of organisations (Microworlds) to shed light upon the relationship between scale of interventions and performance. The results showed that even though large-scaled interventions are effective in the start-up phase of systems, they are generally counter-productive for mature systems operating in steady states. Such results confirm findings from recent research, including the multi-year longitudinal studies of organisations by Collins (2001).
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- Abstract: This paper is the analysis for the behavioral tendency of the construction waste (CW) volume in Macao from 2006 to 2025. Four sources of CW are selected to be the objects of study, which are assumed to constitute all the CW in Macao. Some related factors, such as area of Macao, the average stay time of tourists, population density are also taken into consideration. STELLA 8 is used to perform the analysis, and correlation analysis of parameters will be carried out by a statistic software SPSS (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Ill.). The simulation result shows that the total CW will reach 530128 cubic meters in 2025. The sum of total CW from 2006 to 2025 will have a volume of 13,818,250 cubic meters. From the results of the simulation, the largest portion of CW is generated by casino and hotel projects, which is the main source of CW in the entire simulation period. This research was supported by the Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau (No.022/2007/A2), Macao Special Administration Area, China.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- Based on various employment and technology data in the cultural sector from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s in Seoul, Korea, this research examines whether technology- and human resource-oriented programs exert significant impact on creative manpower and R&D technology level. After briefly introducing Seouls trends in the culture industry, it tries to explain major reinforcing and balancing loops. The stock-flow diagram of the culture industry in Seoul is applied to estimate relative effectiveness of major cultural programs.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- This paper presents a system dynamics model to study the spread of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. The HIV/AIDS model includes important feedback mechanisms of the spread of HIV/AIDS, and partly explains the dynamics of the epidemic in a representative Southern African country. The HIV/AIDS model indicates that prevention to reduce risk behavior is crucial in all stages of the epidemic, but is most efficient in an early stage. Financial relief is most appropriate in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- When students learn to master system dynamics methodology they are introduced to tools and
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- This study investigates the market barriers in increasing the market share of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) and possible policy options to overcome them by using a system dynamics model. In particular, this study first conceptualises the AFVs market model by aid of generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenhome (2003, 2004). Among four generic system archetypes suggestd by Wolstenhome, the market structure of AFVs and conventional cars can be explained by relative achievement. Starting from the generic system archetype, this study extends the model to take account of various model assumptions. According to the AFVs market model of this study, if there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFV even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked in to the current structure. There are several possible policy options to break the locked in structure of car market, such as subsidy on vehicle price (capital cost), subsidy on fuel (operating cost) and niche management policy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- The paper presents a conceptual framework for modeling of dynamic systems with variable structure. A practical motivation comes from analysis of value networks complex systems of stand-alone business entities that bond together, more or less tightly, through exchange of goods, services, and money. The existence of bonds between certain businesses, and their strength, are determined by the relative performance of individual businesses in terms of a value they add along the network. The collection of effective bonds defines the structure of a network. As the performance of businesses changes over time, so does the network structure. Better performing nodes are more likely to get bonded, and nodes with stronger bonds are better positioned to further improve their performance. Having an operational model of the value network behavior, with the capability to predict the changes in the network configuration as a result of the changes in the individual node performance, is a crucial prerequisite for effective management of the network performance. We propose a stochastic model of the dynamic behavior of a value network, which combines probabilistic graphical modeling with stochastic extension of system dynamics to model a network configuration and individual node performance, respectively.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- In academia, the two main measures of research performance are publications and citations. These two measures in a sense quantify the research success of scientists and academic units. Perception of these performance measures can create pressures on researchers and cause different behaviors in different conditions. The aim of this study is to examine the behaviors of researchers in response to the dynamics of publication and citation pressures. A model including faculty members in a department, their publications and citations has been constructed by using system dynamics methodology. An important factor that determines citations for a paper is the quality of the paper. Reputation of an academic unit is established as a result of citations that the unit receives over time. There is an important feedback loop so that the reputation in turn influences the citations the units will enjoy. A researcher, who has citation pressure on him, would be forced to produce higher quality papers for getting more citations. On the other hand, publication pressure would cause the researcher to produce lower-quality papers in higher numbers, in shorter times. The main decisions of researchers are thus modeled through allocation of researchers time in research activities and time devoted on each research. The results obtained agree with our dynamic hypothesis and qualitative information about the behavior of actual academic units.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- In this paper we will introduce a system dynamic model that aims to identify the mechanisms how learning in innovation process converts to profit. This model is built on a single firm level from a strategic management approach. The model is built with modular structure that is in-line with different theoretical aspects that are covered with-in the simulation. In this research 3 main feedback loop groups are identified that offer different approaches in innovation process performance improvements for the manager. These options and their effects are evaluated with the help of the model and the initial data is presented in this paper.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2008 July 20-2008 July 24
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, ce498623f0349395d0a141a0525190a0, and 6cbae5a21467df4434abbc87da443217
- Description:
- In this study, it is aimed to investigate the business dynamics of a hypothetical record company. The recent declining trend in musical industry in many countries has brought up the issue of free sharing of musical content. A system dynamic approach was taken to imitate a setting where there are both legal and illegal ways of obtaining an album. Special attention was paid to the self-marketing effect of the musical content present in the market. The life cycle of a particular album that is assumed to have a high potential of being popular is simulated. Despite the outstanding self-marketing effect of the shared content, the record companys profits decrease following the decline in sales due to diversion of people to illegal ways of obtaining the album in the mid-phases of the life cycle. Scenario analyses showed that the companys benefit from free sharing depends on how the increasing illegal content affects the market. If the diverting effect of illegal content is low, the demand generated is realized as legal sales to a satisfactory extent and thus the company actually profits.