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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- General concepts for the quantitative description of the dynamics of social processes are introduced. They allow for embedding social science into the conceptual framework of synergetics. Equations of motion for the socioconfiguration are derived on the stochastic and quasideterministic level. As an application the migration of interacting human populations is treated. The solutions of the nonlinear migratory equations include limit cycles and strange attractors. The empiric evaluation of interregional migratory dynamics is exemplified in the case of Germany.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Based on our study of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, by means of mathematics, in terms of the viewpoint of system dynamics, this paper concentrates on the study of chaos in system dynamics: we analyze the nature of chaos phenomenon and the characteristics of system dynamics, put forward the viewpoint that chaos testing should be included in model testing of S. D.; we investigate several necessary conditions of chaos; we create a model to question a famous sufficient condition of chaos; then, we shed some light on the way toward which chaos will occur. At last, we successfully apply our theoretic study to a standard nuclear spin generator model.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The main purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic behavior change of Shanghai's industrial structure. Shanghai's industry is facing a severe situation now. In one hand, the industry is required to make adjustments in its structure and distribution according to Shanghai economic development strategy; in the other hand, its ageing technology and structure of products, together with the shortage of energy and raw material, result in decline of profits in industrial enterprises and “landslip” of government revenue. Therefore, how to adjust the structure of Shanghai's industry reasonably is becoming an urgent task. With the aid of industrial development history of western developed countries, this paper analyzes the reasonable development of industry from four aspects, creates a system dynamics model to simulate the dynamic change of city's industrial structure and tests its validate. At last, the paper uses this model to analyze the trend of Shanghai industrial production and studies several problems in industrial economy, such as; selecting the leading industrial department of the city; allocating funds reasonably; using energy and raw material efficiently and affecting the technology, pollution and transportation on industry. In policy test, the paper proposes a series policies to authorities responsible for industry development for reference.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This study is related to the socio-economic development strategy of a typical underdeveloped coastal open city (named L) which was mainly done by means of system dynamics approach.L city is located in the north to the Taiwan Straits. It is one of the most famous lands of overseas Chinese ancestors in China. And it famous with a long history and splendid ancient culture. It is the starting point of the “Silk Way On Sea” with excellent ports and rich natural resources. L city had its economic prosperity in the ancient times. Coming to modern times, however, its economy was very backward because of having been closed the region to international intercourse for a very long time. Since the implementation of the economic reform and open policy, the city has achieved a great progress in the economy while the pace of regional industrialization has been more rapid in the past decades. It is the typical example on the coastal open area of China. Therefore, it is necessary to study the problems of regions to garantee the continuous, steady and coordinated development of the regional economy in the future.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- After being overlooked for many years, now the financial and monetary system plays an important role of adjustment and control functions in national economy, relating to which, the four economic leverages--price, tax rate, interest rate and wage are the main tools of carrying out these functions. Based on system dynamics approach, this paper quantitatively studies the long-term development tendency of their interaction and coordination. Based on simulating results under normal economy development, policy tests and analyses have been done to discuss the problems emerging from current economic reform. The reasonable ranges of the adjustment of price, tax rate, interest rate and wage increase rate are suggested and the amount of money supply are discussed. Then some policies of coordinately applying the leverages to improve the behaviors of system are put forward. This paper has made some progress in quantitatively analysing the long-term development of the financial and monetary system, in establishing a credible and practical model for policy analysis to solve the problems emerging from the economy of China.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Taking Shanghai as an example, we have studied qualitatively and quantitatively the problems concerned with the coordinated development of the R&D and socio-economy for a typical large city in China. In this paper we first discuss some theoretical problems concerned with the coordinated development, then using the approach of system analysis to investigate the typical phenomena characterizing the imbalances of the development and the main reasons (constraints) which have caused these imbalances. And then we outline our main framework and ideas of the “System Dynamics Model for the Coordinated Development of R&D and Socio-economy”, illustrate the main strategy spectrum analyses and policy tests conducted on the model, and present the main conclusions and policy recommendations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- In this work, we examine advantages of formalization, and specially Ziegler's system formalization, relating to the most fundamental concepts used when building models with System Dynamics (SD). This is exemplified through the University/Unemployed model. We finish talking about the relations between model, theory and system concepts.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on human behavior in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts including auctions, bargaining, and preference elicitation (Plott1986, Smith 1986, Slovic and Lichtenstein 1983). Despite the success of experimental techniques in the domain of the individual and small group, there has been comparatively little work relating the behavior of decision makers to the dynamics of larger organizations such as an industry or the macroeconomy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The subject of how organizations learn and how organizational learning can be enhanced and accelerated is becoming a major interest in the business world. In the movement to reinvigorate American manufacturing, organizational learning has emerged as a major theme. In Hays, Wheelwright and Clark's recent book Dynamic Manufacturing: Creating the Learning Organization, (Hays, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., Clark, K.B., 1988) the authors conclude:“There is one common denominator in high-performance plants: an ability to learn-to achieve sustained improvement in performance over a long period of time. When assessing a manufacturing organization, learning is the bottom line.”
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The competitive situation of the German Federal Railway has visibly intensified due to the following factors: the way in which important customers (the coal and steel and fertiliser industries) are susceptible to crisis; the longstanding political favouring of road construction; the introduction of new technologies (video link-up, electronic mail etc.); and also the europeanisation of the transport market and the associated price decay (Duetsche Bundesbahn, 1987). The precarious financial situation, as well as growing pressure from the public, presents the railway management with the difficult task of, on the one hand, reducing costs, and on the other hand, of improving the standard of service offered. In order to be able to cope with this problem, it is necessary to identify and formulate corresponding strategies, against the background of existing strengths and weaknesses, as well as growing chances and risks arising from environmental development. Through the strategies, and through innovation, invention and reduction in costs, the railway can be developed from a bureaucratic institution to a modern and competitive tertiary sector company. Only in this way can the railway's ability to survive be secured in the long term (Zahn, 1988).This paper presents a system dynamics model, which portrays an important area of the federal railway. With the help of this model, the interrelations and mutual dependencies of this complex system are to be demonstrated. The model provides a valuable article in the field of strategic planning, in which strategic decisions, which are often based on uncertain information, can now be founded on a sound basis, and therefore, the decision process can be effectively supported.