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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- By means of a study in the application of System Dynamics theory and approach, a quantitative analysis of the coordinative development of the main agricultural productions in Heilongliang Province is made, constructing a simulation model of system dynamics which is composed of farming, forestry, animal husbandry fishery, land resoures and population.The relationships between the various productions mentioned above, as well as between the internal variables within each production are correctly described in the model. Simulation analyses on the relationships between various productions and between the internal variables within each production, by using the model, are made and, at the same time, many programs which have advantages for the coordinative development of various productions result from these analyses.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between transportation and other industries with system dynamics theory and method. We develop a system dynamics model to protray how the transportability influences other industries, and have made some computer simulation in which we simulated the dynamic characteristics of the system at different alternatives of investment.In the simulation, we properly reduced the investment in heavy industry and increase the investment in transportation, while the total amount of the investment is the same. The output value of heavy industry didn't decrease, on the contrary, it increased. At the same time, the output value of other industries and national income increased too. This indicates that the transportability directly influences the output value of other industries.From the simulation result we also see that the investment in transportation of China is too small and this leads to the situation that the development of transportation can't meet the demand of national economics in China.This paper is a application example of how system dynamics is used to solve problems of social economics. This research will help people to know the importance of transportation in national economics and government to make policy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- It is necessary to test a newly built model to make sure that it does simulate the actual system. The test may include many aspects, such as sensitive test, comparison test with history data, etc. This paper studies sensitive test and presents some results of the findings.In studying the structure of a given system, the endogenous variables and exogenous variables are given explicitly. If we can not tell the difference between them correctly, it may confuse the real meaning of the sensitive test.In the present analysis we find that the conditions for non-sensitivity of variables to a model are: 1) the change is made for one variable only and 2) the change is small. The conditions for sensitivity of the variables to the model are: 1) two or more variables change at the same time and 2) the change is great. A model may also become sensitive for a small change of the exogenous variable.The above results have been thoroughly investigated and the methods of the sensitive test are presented.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Most of the developing countries are faced the problem how to allocate limited resource to education to promote economy growth. In this paper, the System Dynamics methodology is employed to solve the problem. The interactions between education, economy and Science-Technology (S&T), and the inherent mechanism of education and economy are studied. Based on these studies, a system dynamics model for the national education and economy development is established. According to the actual socio-economic situation of China, several different resource allocation policies for education are tested on the model. Finally, some useful policy suggestions about resource allocation for education are given, such as the proper ratio of education expenditure to national income and the proper ratios of resources allocated to different levels of education.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- It is no doubt that China is now facing a challenge of inflation: quick prices rising, over issued monetary, rapid growing total social demand and unsufficient production supply....The present paper studies the inflation issue in China in terms of the macroeconomic theory of system dynamics, in order to find the fundamental causes and the self-promoting mechanism of inflation in China. In this paper, factors of total social demand, monetary issue, etc. have been qualitatively and quantitatively discussed, some policy tests have been made, and finally the new viewpoints and suggestions which help to cut down inflation are put forward. It is a new test to study inflation by system dynamics instead of by regression or curve fitting.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Based on the mechanism of interaction among R&D, technological progress, the change of industrial structure, and economic growth in both supply and demand sides, and with the help of dynamic input-output analysis, in this paper a system dynamics model is constructed, focusing on the notable impacts of technological change on structural change in the Chinese economy. Through modelling and policy analysis,some new findings and patterns of long-term development, including the preferential consequences and opportunity for industrial development, future prospects for China's S&T and economy during the next fifty years, the evolution of industrial structure in the process of industrialization, and resource allocation to different industries and R&D expenditure allocation, are obtained.
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Xu, Quingri with Keyie Jin, "The Coordinative Development Between R&D and Tech-Acquisition in China"
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This paper studies the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition in the industrialization process of China, dealing with the mechanism of interaction between R&D and tech-acquisition. It also deals with the mechanism of limited resources allocation in capital investment to R&D and tech-acquisition areas. A system dynamics model about the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition is developed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This paper will outline the concept of system dynamics optimisation using the DYSMOD software and present a case study of its use to analyse a defence problem. The insights into the problem, which were generated from a conventional system dynamics model and its policy design experiments, will be given. This will be followed by the presentation of results from a set of optimisation experiments, utilising a range of objective functions and structural design parameters. The paper will focus on the value added to the understanding of the problem which resulted from this process. The overall conclusion is that optimisation subsumes conventional sensitivity analysis as well as providing an holistic interpretation of the behaviour of a system dynamics model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- It was once suggested to me, half jokingly perhaps, that System Dynamics offers “2nd -Generation Expert Systems – before the 1st Generation”. This paper reconciles the theories and processes, and draws upon business consulting assignments, to examine how close to reality this notion is.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- System Dynamics began thirty years ago as a bold attempt to apply engineering analysis concepts to business systems. But from the late 1960s onward, most System Dynamic research focused on public policy problems. Business applications have grown steadily, though less visibly and primarily outside academia. For example, over the past twenty-five years, Pugh-Roberts Associates has completed hundreds of management consulting assignments using System dynamics for clients in the financial services, aerospace, electronics, telecommunications, computer, chemical shipbuilding, transportation, electric power, energy, and natural resources industries. Some of the best-known, most successful businesses throughout the world have System Dynamics.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- General concepts for the quantitative description of the dynamics of social processes are introduced. They allow for embedding social science into the conceptual framework of synergetics. Equations of motion for the socioconfiguration are derived on the stochastic and quasideterministic level. As an application the migration of interacting human populations is treated. The solutions of the nonlinear migratory equations include limit cycles and strange attractors. The empiric evaluation of interregional migratory dynamics is exemplified in the case of Germany.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Based on our study of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, by means of mathematics, in terms of the viewpoint of system dynamics, this paper concentrates on the study of chaos in system dynamics: we analyze the nature of chaos phenomenon and the characteristics of system dynamics, put forward the viewpoint that chaos testing should be included in model testing of S. D.; we investigate several necessary conditions of chaos; we create a model to question a famous sufficient condition of chaos; then, we shed some light on the way toward which chaos will occur. At last, we successfully apply our theoretic study to a standard nuclear spin generator model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The main purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic behavior change of Shanghai's industrial structure. Shanghai's industry is facing a severe situation now. In one hand, the industry is required to make adjustments in its structure and distribution according to Shanghai economic development strategy; in the other hand, its ageing technology and structure of products, together with the shortage of energy and raw material, result in decline of profits in industrial enterprises and “landslip” of government revenue. Therefore, how to adjust the structure of Shanghai's industry reasonably is becoming an urgent task. With the aid of industrial development history of western developed countries, this paper analyzes the reasonable development of industry from four aspects, creates a system dynamics model to simulate the dynamic change of city's industrial structure and tests its validate. At last, the paper uses this model to analyze the trend of Shanghai industrial production and studies several problems in industrial economy, such as; selecting the leading industrial department of the city; allocating funds reasonably; using energy and raw material efficiently and affecting the technology, pollution and transportation on industry. In policy test, the paper proposes a series policies to authorities responsible for industry development for reference.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- This study is related to the socio-economic development strategy of a typical underdeveloped coastal open city (named L) which was mainly done by means of system dynamics approach.L city is located in the north to the Taiwan Straits. It is one of the most famous lands of overseas Chinese ancestors in China. And it famous with a long history and splendid ancient culture. It is the starting point of the “Silk Way On Sea” with excellent ports and rich natural resources. L city had its economic prosperity in the ancient times. Coming to modern times, however, its economy was very backward because of having been closed the region to international intercourse for a very long time. Since the implementation of the economic reform and open policy, the city has achieved a great progress in the economy while the pace of regional industrialization has been more rapid in the past decades. It is the typical example on the coastal open area of China. Therefore, it is necessary to study the problems of regions to garantee the continuous, steady and coordinated development of the regional economy in the future.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- After being overlooked for many years, now the financial and monetary system plays an important role of adjustment and control functions in national economy, relating to which, the four economic leverages--price, tax rate, interest rate and wage are the main tools of carrying out these functions. Based on system dynamics approach, this paper quantitatively studies the long-term development tendency of their interaction and coordination. Based on simulating results under normal economy development, policy tests and analyses have been done to discuss the problems emerging from current economic reform. The reasonable ranges of the adjustment of price, tax rate, interest rate and wage increase rate are suggested and the amount of money supply are discussed. Then some policies of coordinately applying the leverages to improve the behaviors of system are put forward. This paper has made some progress in quantitatively analysing the long-term development of the financial and monetary system, in establishing a credible and practical model for policy analysis to solve the problems emerging from the economy of China.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- Taking Shanghai as an example, we have studied qualitatively and quantitatively the problems concerned with the coordinated development of the R&D and socio-economy for a typical large city in China. In this paper we first discuss some theoretical problems concerned with the coordinated development, then using the approach of system analysis to investigate the typical phenomena characterizing the imbalances of the development and the main reasons (constraints) which have caused these imbalances. And then we outline our main framework and ideas of the “System Dynamics Model for the Coordinated Development of R&D and Socio-economy”, illustrate the main strategy spectrum analyses and policy tests conducted on the model, and present the main conclusions and policy recommendations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- In this work, we examine advantages of formalization, and specially Ziegler's system formalization, relating to the most fundamental concepts used when building models with System Dynamics (SD). This is exemplified through the University/Unemployed model. We finish talking about the relations between model, theory and system concepts.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on human behavior in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts including auctions, bargaining, and preference elicitation (Plott1986, Smith 1986, Slovic and Lichtenstein 1983). Despite the success of experimental techniques in the domain of the individual and small group, there has been comparatively little work relating the behavior of decision makers to the dynamics of larger organizations such as an industry or the macroeconomy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The subject of how organizations learn and how organizational learning can be enhanced and accelerated is becoming a major interest in the business world. In the movement to reinvigorate American manufacturing, organizational learning has emerged as a major theme. In Hays, Wheelwright and Clark's recent book Dynamic Manufacturing: Creating the Learning Organization, (Hays, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., Clark, K.B., 1988) the authors conclude:“There is one common denominator in high-performance plants: an ability to learn-to achieve sustained improvement in performance over a long period of time. When assessing a manufacturing organization, learning is the bottom line.”
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1989
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 229aea09844305a482784be9fca550ff, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and a656a490ae4bb95659d385b98804153f
- Description:
- The competitive situation of the German Federal Railway has visibly intensified due to the following factors: the way in which important customers (the coal and steel and fertiliser industries) are susceptible to crisis; the longstanding political favouring of road construction; the introduction of new technologies (video link-up, electronic mail etc.); and also the europeanisation of the transport market and the associated price decay (Duetsche Bundesbahn, 1987). The precarious financial situation, as well as growing pressure from the public, presents the railway management with the difficult task of, on the one hand, reducing costs, and on the other hand, of improving the standard of service offered. In order to be able to cope with this problem, it is necessary to identify and formulate corresponding strategies, against the background of existing strengths and weaknesses, as well as growing chances and risks arising from environmental development. Through the strategies, and through innovation, invention and reduction in costs, the railway can be developed from a bureaucratic institution to a modern and competitive tertiary sector company. Only in this way can the railway's ability to survive be secured in the long term (Zahn, 1988).This paper presents a system dynamics model, which portrays an important area of the federal railway. With the help of this model, the interrelations and mutual dependencies of this complex system are to be demonstrated. The model provides a valuable article in the field of strategic planning, in which strategic decisions, which are often based on uncertain information, can now be founded on a sound basis, and therefore, the decision process can be effectively supported.
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