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-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Our objective in this research effort is to provide both software development managers and researchers with a useful way of thinking about organizational improvement issues. Our aim is to develop an integrative model of software project management that can help them answer the difficult questions they need to raise when assessing organizational health, selecting improvement tools (from many that are readily available), and implementing their choices.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Rationality is an underutilized concept for creating and analyzing behavioral simulation models of business systems. Much explanatory power and insight can be gained by assuming that business decisionmaking is intendedly rational, examining the factors that limit rational adjustment in business decisions, and exposing in simulation experiments the rationality the underlies even the most counterintuitive total-system behavior. The paper begins by defining rationality and illustrating the difference between objective rationality, which is common in behavioral models of decisionmaking. Two methods of analysis are then proposed for clarifying the theory implicit in a simulation model. The first method is premise description. In describing decision functions and model equations attention should be drawn to the organizational processes of factoring, goal formation, routine and tradition that limit the area of rational adjustment in business decisionmaking. The second method is partial model testing. A sequence of partial model tests should be designed to examine the intended rationality of decisionmaking. The intuitively clear and sensible behavior of partial tests should be contrasted with the more complex and often counterintuitive behavior of the whole model. The application of these methods is illustrated with a simulation model of a sales organization containing linked decision functions for sales objectives and salesman overtime, and a behavioral function for sales force motivation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Researchers and practitioners in System Dynamics usually folllow a trial-and-error process to design new policy decisions. They mainly use causal loop diagrams for this purpose. However, these diagrams portray 'directions' of influence and not its 'strength'. Therefore, the process of policy design becomes time consuming especially for a beginner and those working with insufficient computer facility. This paper presents an alternative approach for policy design using Modal Control Theory. In this approach, policy variables are treated as control variables by delinking them from other variables. This generally leads to greatly simplified models which are free from many nonlinearities. Providing that this reduced system is linear and controllable, it is possible to synthetically generate control policies by modal control theory to ensure any prescribed degree of stability. These theoretical control policies can then be used to design realistic policy decisions. The Chapter-8 problem of Coyle is used here as a test example. It is shown that policies designed in the light of modeal control theoretic results are superior to those suggested by Coyle.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- This paper reviews the application of system dynamics modelling in a variety of substantive studies published between 1961 and 1981. A five-fold typology of system dynamics models is presented and this is followed by a mehodological critique of many of these studies. On the basis of this review four fundamental epistemological problems are identified. These problems include the difficulties involved in closing complex, sub-global models, the various behavioural modes exhibited by dynamic models, the distinction between teleological and teleonomic perspectives and, finally, some aspects of the ideology of control are discussed in terms of conservative, reformist and radical uses of system dynamics models. It is argued that the methodological weaknesses and epistemological problems associated with many system dynamics models cast grave doubts on both their scientific content and usefulness to policy makers.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Marxian economics is used as a new conceptual foundation for modelling urban growth. This conceptual model is made operational using the methodology of system dynamics to replicate the pattern of urban growth for an hypothetical city set in a British context. The predicted and actual patterns of urban growth are then compared to a set of British towns and cities from 1801 to 1971, with further predictions to 2001 in dicennial intervals. Some advantages and limitations of this new approach to urban modelling are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Federal Support for alternate energy technologies has gone through a boom/bust cycle during the Carter and Regan administrations. To investigate the effects of these policies, I use a system dynamics model of the industrial market penetration of parabolic troughs as a case study. The Regan policy, a laissez-faire policy, lets free market forces determine the market penetration. The Carter policy, an active government policy, combines research, development and demonstration with information dissemination and market financial incentives. The optimal policy depends upon future energy prices. If the price of conventional energy remains low, parabolic troughs never become competitive even with significant government support and thus the laissez-faire policy reduces federal expenditures by ~ $60 million with no negative effects. If the price of unconventional energy increases significantly, however, free-market forces do not develop parabolic troughs into a practical energy source without the benefit of an active government program. If this case study is generalizable to other alternate energy technologies, an active government role in alternate energy technology development should be thought as an insurance policy. How much is it worth to the U.S. today to insure future price stability?
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- System Dynamics has been virtually defined with a requirement for authoring a model in the language, DYNAMO. The present paper extends the previously established [Theory and Decision 7: 67-94 (1976)] result that DYNAMO esentially requires the author of a model of a dynamic system write a set of difference equations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- A system dynamics model of a major telecommunications network has been developed to support managers in the function of long range strategic planning. Application of system dynamics to the strategic planning area was found to be, in some respects, quite unique. The article discusses this type of application in the areas of model requirements, sponsorship, scope, development, and review. In the area of requirements, it was found that a system dynamics model developed to support long range strategic planning should be quite broad in scope, must satisfy a potentially large community of planners, yet also must pass the review of tactical planners as well. A baseline-model approach is proposed as an effective way to satisfy these requirements. Guidelines for the modeler are proposed for obtaining sponsorship, for avoiding pitfalls in the model development process, and for interacting with model users and reviewers. The baseline-model approach, coupled with the guidelines, has been found to work quite effectively within one organization to support long range strategic planning.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- Our role is to advise senior British Telecom management on strategy for BT as a whole. This requires coherent strategic analysis aided by systems dynamics models. All management levels must have confidence in the models in their results. For analysing alternative futures we find that graphs are easier to appreciate and understand. We have also found that colour graphics greatly enhances the presentation of more than one curve at a time. Interaction with models in real time is a major step in boosting user confidence for it allows rapid confirmation, or rejection, of the user's prejudices. Interfaces to computer models, such as menus, bit pads, etc, are successful if they interface efficiently between the user's mental map and that which is enshrined in the model. If the user can move a 'lever' which exists in the real world and that causes the model to display the effects he expects, then he will have confidence in the model. Decision makers want the best strategy. We shall discuss how we use colour graphics to compare strategies, but that often begs the question 'Why?'. This requires techniques used in artificial intelligence, which can also be used to 'customise' interfaces to individual users.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1983
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
- Descripción:
- This paper proposes to utilize the Management Technologies' U.S. Economic Model to simulate the same monetary policy tests performed on the three macro-econometric models. Such comparison is likely to be methodologically revealing for several reasons. First, the 'Management Technologies' U.S. model is at least of comparable detail and sophistication to the econometric models. Second, the U.S. Model has been developed for similar purposes of short-term (1-2 years) and medium-term (5-20 years) forecasting and analysis of various industry and government policy measures. Third, the U.S. Model has been extensively validated historically and empirically, so that model details and parameter values are not simply “representative” a priori selections, but meet the dual tests of being a priori satisfactory and historically accurate. Policy tests thus far performed on the U.S. Model in fact illustrate significant differences from the econometric results, both near-term and longer-term.
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