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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- This paper emphasises on the question of how quality management initiatives influences business performance with particular emphasis to Australian manufacturing industries. The paper describes the finding of a pilot survey on quality conducted among manufacturing companies in the Geelong region of the Victoria state. The results of the survey have helped in understanding the transient nature of the quality management process. It transpires from the study that the industry managers have limited perception of the quality process. They fail to realise some of the important feedback loops of the quality management system. The paper attempts to identify the missing links and develop a comprehensive (and a more representative) causal model of quality management process.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- The diffusion of innovations over time is a highly dynamic problem that is influenced by various factors like price, advertising, product quality, competition and among other the time of market entry. The traditional models of innovation diffusion--like the Bass model and the further development on that basis--ignore those factors and the complexity and dynamics underlying the process of diffusion. Usually these models consider only one influencing, but exogenous element, e.g., price of advertising, and seek for strategies to optimize the cumulated profits. Their aim is normative decision supports in the field, but they model, which do not appropriately represent the structural fundamentals of the problems because the methodologies the models are based on are inadequate to build complex and interdependent models. The use of the system dynamic methodology allows the development of more complex models to investigate and analyze the process of innovation diffusion. These models can enhance the insight and the problem structure and increase understanding of the complexity, the dynamics and the impact of the influencing factors. The paper discusses in a systematic view different model types. In the beginning the coarse structure of a model that generates the process of innovation diffusion in monopolistic markets is shown and discussed in detail. It is also described how management policies and the structures of corporate models can be integrated to the model. Further developments of this core model then describe different ways of mapping competition among existing and potential competitors in innovation diffusion models. These models then allow -among other- the analysis of market entry timing, pricing or advertising, and research and development strategies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- Industrial companies can be characterized as complex and dynamic systems that are only parts of more complex systems. Therefore the purpose of education of business administration student can only be to teach the principles of different functional areas. Management education also has to enhance the understanding of how the different organizational parts of a company interact, how the dynamic consequences of decisions are and how decisions in one functional areas of a company influences other parts. Here the traditional way of teaching in management education fails. Tools are needed that allow (1) to teach the structural fundamentals of companies and (2) to part of the education of students in business administration at the Industrieseminar of the Mannheim Univeristy. The paper discusses a comprehensive model of a company and its interactions to the suppliers, the markets, the competitors and its use in management education. This management simulator is partly based on the model developed and published by Lyneis. Some of the sectors of the original Lyneis model were improved and completed by others that map market dynamics, research and development, and a more detailed representation of competitive structures. Opposed to the Lyneis model which was developed in DYNAMO the management simulator is implemented in VENSIM. Students use this model in the advanced courses of System Dynamics. They analyze the structure of the model, the feedback relations and the management policies that are mapped. They are also forced to seek for better policies in the different functional areas and can test the dynamics created by their new policies. On that basis the understanding of the interactions of the functional parts of a company and the dynamics consequences of decision can be improved.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- As the 21st century approaches, the Internet will be an important resource for system dynamists. This paper will describe the new computer server where a suite of Internet tools are used and maintained at MIT by the System Dynamics in Education Project under the supervision of Professor Jay Forrester. These tools will be available to anyone with an interest in system thinking and system dynamics. This introduction to the field of electronic networking will mention the various methods of connecting to the Internet and touch upon some of the most popular uses of the Internet. We will expand this discussion into how the Internet can be used for the rapid exchange of information. One of the most intriguing capabilities of the server will be the sharing of computer models. These computer simulations can be downloaded, evaluated, modified, and sent back or on to other people. The use of technology will facilitate discussion, debate, and the exchange of ideas. The MIT system dynamics server can be reached through the World Wide Web, FTP, Gopher, and e-mail. Specific detail will be given about how to access the server, and how to use each of its components. Since technology is changing rapidly, future plans for the expansion of the server will be discussed as well. A summary of what papers, models, announcements, and resources are presently available on this system dynamics server will be present. In addition, we will discuss other system dynamics resources available on the Internet, such as servers maintained by the System Dynamics Society and other institutions around the world. The technology transfer that the Internet allows can benefit all those who are interested in the field of system dynamics including model building and sharing of experiences. The Internet is an efficient, often inexpensive means of communication, which can important for the growth of system dynamics in the future.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- This experimental study examines how performance and learning in a system dynamics microworld environment may be improved through the provision of online cognitive feedback. Subjects are postgraduate management students at the University of Westminster, London. They participate in the experiment over a two week period, as part of graded assignment. Subjects have to complete a set of six tasks in an Oil Producers microworld, playing the Independents Producers, with a clearly defined performance objective to maximise cumulative net income over a 25 year period. The experimental design includes three different cognitive feedback treatment groups, in addition to a control group which receives no cognitive feedback at all. All groups receive outcome feedback. Treatment groups only have access to the cognitive feedback during the first three trails out of six. Mean subject performance is significantly greater for the treatment groups during the first three trials, but declines to a level comparable with the control group by trial six. Sustainable mean performance improvements are not achieved, but productivity (performance/time taken) does improve significantly by the end of experiment.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- Managers involved in the refining and trading of oil had conflicting views on the relationship between output and cash generation in their market. A day by day account is given of a project in which the market was modelled. The models ostensibly represented the view of the Refining Strategy staff but consultation which other individuals allowed the views of the local Trading department to be represented too. The tools of system dynamics were used to articulate assumptions and to support a 'dialogue' in which disagreements regarding macro-behaviour were transformed into debates over specifics relationships. The repeated re-crafting of a STELLA model led to alterations in the interaction. In consequence, the participants aligned behind a single view of the market's behaviour, as well as admitting to increased respect for the expertise of the other group.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- Tokyo and the surrounding region support a huge population. The resulting large number of people who commute to the city centre has necessitated the ongoing construction and maintenance of a vast railway network. Currently transportation form terminal stations to the city centre is provided mainly by Japan Railways' Ymanote Line, the TRTA and the Tokyo Public Subway. Thirteen lines, including those in only partial operation, comprise the subway system in the downtown area. The TRTA forms the heart of the system with nine lines, while the Tokyo Public Subway is relatively small in scale, with only four lines. The current research project provides the TRTA material for use in developing future management directions by data provided by the TRTA. This paper covers the first phase of this research.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- A system dynamics model based on Artificial Life (AL) concept is proposed for transport forecasting. The proposed model focuses on the economic behaviour which emerges out of the interactions among individual local objects, i.e. economic units. That model is merely a large aggregation of simple programs which specify how that local object react in the environment. Application examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- Traditionally, feedback loops have been analyzed in two ways. First, as in causal loop analysis, the positive or negative relationships between variables are summed up to judge the polarity of feedback loops. This approach can be said as a qualitative method. Second approach for analyzing feedback loops are analytic methods mainly developed for dealing with linear models. For the problems of understanding the behavior of feedback loops, the qualitative methods and analytic approaches give little help to modellers. In this paper, third approach for understanding the behavior of feedback loops are suggested. That is a loop by loop simulation method for tracing the feedback loop gains. First parts of this paper explain the concept of feedback loop gain and the loop simulation method. Second parts of this paper experiment the loop simulation method with two S.D. models; the commodity cycle model which shows equilibrium forces and the two shower model which shows fluctuating system behaviors without external shocks. Last parts of this paper discuss about the dangers of understanding S.D. model with qualitative analysis of causal loops and raise a question on the way of interpreting cyclic or chaotic behavior as shifts in dominant feedback loops.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1995
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- b83f2ce2912343b559f967dd985da515, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 12420ec6bd5f758d2b4dea59aabd75a9
- Description:
- Game theorists have recommended lots of reasonable strategies for resolving domestic and international policy problems. In general, they use a concept of equilibrium strategy for analyzing dynamic consequences of available policy options in game situations. One of the most famous policy recommendations suggested by game theorists is that of George Tsebelis (1989). He contends that an increase in penalty against law-violation is not a viable policy tool for decreasing the violation tendencies of drivers. That is because the interactions between police and drivers can be best represented as a mixed strategy game in which each player choose their alternative actions with a probability. In a mixed strategy game between police and driver, the probability of driver's law-violation cannot be decreased by increasing penalty against law-violation. Tsebelis's suggestion seems to be contradictory to common sense. For most policy makers, an increase in penalty is conceived as one of the most effective tools for policy implementation. In Korea, the increase in penalty have vastly reduced the number of drunken drivers. In many countries, the penalty management is a major policy implementation tool for inducing compliance from the people. Our SD model for a mixed strategy game shows that it takes a very long time for an gametheoretic equilibrium to appear. Therefore, game players cannot and should not depend on the equilibrium state for choosing their actions. Furthermore, our mixed game model shows that an increase in penalty can induce a compliance from the people. Our model shows a behaviors which are contradictory to the game theoretic solution, but consistent to the real world behaviors. We have proposed that these gaps between SD model and a game theory come from the ambiguous conception of equilibrium state and the lack of dynamic and transient behavior analysis in the game theory.