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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- For a fairly long time, the German corporate loan business has been regarded in publications on the subject as leading to value deterioration. On the basis of the bank lending statistics of the Deutsche Bundesbank, our analysis clearly shows a cyclical as well as a structural problem preventing the big four German banks from creating value. In order to analyze possible strategies to solve this issue within a systemic approach, we built a model which included almost 200 variables. Running this model until the year 2010 the outcome is appalling: the break-even return on equity will not be reached. We therefore modelled in a second step the widely discussed strategy of risk adjusted pricing. The outcome raises hope although this strategy in itself is not sufficient to solve the problem entirely, the return on equity can be increased.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Automobile manufactures are facing shrinking product lifecycles and increasingly complex production and product technologies. Both of these phenomena pressure production facilities to begin full scale operations at a point when the underlying process technology is still poorly understood. Consequently companies suffer from substantial yield losses which can dramatically affect the economics of the product, the production facility, and business. The manufacturing start-up will be defined as the time span equal to the difference between time- to- market and time- to- volume. A major goal of automobile manufacturers is to reduce the timeto-market, however they cannot evaluate the effects on the time- to- volume. This paper will give insight into these interdependencies and compare two policies for the management of changes during manufacturing start-up.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The current work presents and discusses current insights from an ongoing BP Project Dynamics R&D program that supports a Project of the Future vision enabled through the use of formal system dynamics modeling. The BP capital investment environment and the importance of effective capital project planning and execution is discussed. The role of system dynamics in BPs project training approach and early adoption trends favoring conceptual versus formal model tools are reviewed. A formal modeling application conducted in parallel with an actual project assessment that used a traditional approach is detailed and contrasted to provide a direct comparison. In particular, we describe the traditional project assessment approach, how a formal system dynamics model was introduced and used, and how the quantified results influenced both the project and participants. We then identify key learnings and how a model-in-loop concept supports the Project of the Future vision. Finally, we briefly discuss implications for future R&D efforts.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The current work examines the application of system dynamics to real options through work with a major energy firm to apply real options. Five key challenges facing the real options community are presented and potential system dynamics contributions to these challenges are discussed. Two cases from a BP research project illustrate how system dynamics can be used to develop and value real options. The work shows that the use of systems dynamics in real option development and valuation can 1) address key challenges facing the real options community and increase the use of real options in the oil and gas industry 2) allow system dynamicists to offer increased value in developing and valuing flexibility and 3) open system dynamics to new markets of research collaboration and potential clients.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- In order to find some effective management policy by the feedback loops analysis of a complex system, we transformed the rate variable fundamental in-tree model of SD to a diagonal-0 branch-vector matrix using the method combining graph theory and algebra to work out there are how many newly gained feedback loops in a SD model when a new management activity was introduced into. We created a SD model of a human resource management in an organization, and using this new method, we proved that there were 16 positive and 17 negative newly gained feedback loops by introducing a new HR management of grade-salary incitement on performance level. We proved that the grade-salary-incitement improved the organizational performance, but on the other hand, it restrained the performance of the organization because of the increasing cost. By analyze the growth limited structure model, we find the policy of using the grade-salary-incitement to increase the performance of both the employees and the organization better.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The various purposes for which a dynamic tasks might be constructed, such as to test for knowledge, teach, or to assist professionals or the lay public in understanding the systems they are dealing with (or part of), are discussed. The idea analysis method is suggested as a means to fit a task to its purpose. Idea analysis entails analysing the task in terms of what basic ideas need to be familiar if one is to be able solve the task. It is just as important to know what knowledge a task does not require as to know what it does require, and if the requirements corresponds to the goal(s) motivating the construction of the task. To provide an example, the Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT) task, a close analogue to the one-stock reindeer management task by Moxnes, is analysed, and several issues of general importance are revealed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper is a challenge to Jay Forresters Urban Dynamics model. The resulting alternative model is compared to Urban Dynamics by running tests of actual U.S. Housing policies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The traditional way of teaching strategic management at business schools is the case method. While it aims to provide a simulated environment for strategy formation, the case method has several limitations. Many of them can be overcome through the use of Management Flight Simulators (MFS) by combining computer simulation models with conventional case studies. While many existing MFS focus on specific industries, we developed an Industry Evolution Management Flight Simulator that captures the generic industrial structure with endogenous firm entry and exit. For effective teaching purposes, we then introduced staged game design, and tested both the MFS and supporting materials and pedagogy in strategic management classes at the MIT Sloan School of Management. We started with a version for a relatively simple competitive situation, represented by the salt industry, with pricing as the only decision variable. Later in the course we introduce a version for a more complex strategic setting, represented by the video game industry, where players make multiple decisions and where additional feedbacks are relevant, including network effects, complementary assets, and pricing in both the console and cartridge markets. Preliminary results are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Successful implementation of innovations is central to social service organizations effectiveness and improvement of services to clients. Yet administrators face a host of challenges and implementation failures are common. This paper discusses the nature of the innovation implementation as inherently dynamic, endogenous to the organization, and constrained by conditions of bounded rationality. Several system dynamics models of innovation implementation are reviewed from manufacturing, health, and human services in terms of their appropriateness and evidence base for social services. Recommendations for practice and a research agenda offered.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This poster reports on the preliminary results of a study comparing the effectiveness of system dynamics with traditional, lecture based, methods of learning about wetland ecosystems. The study tests the hypothesis that students utilizing a system dynamics approach learn more and retain more of the material presented to them than with the traditional teacher-based approach. Students from the Las Vegas school district participate in one of two treatments, as the experimental or the control group. Students in the experimental group are presented with a lesson utilizing four system dynamics models about the Wetlands Park Nature Preserve (WPNP) in Las Vegas, Nevada. Students are given a pretest, prior to instruction, and a posttest two weeks after instruction. To assess student learning, understanding, and retention, scores on the pre and posttest are analyzed.