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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- We investigate irreversible acceptance dynamics, leading to phenomena typical for paradigm change not described by widely used reversible and static behavioral models, e.g., multistability, hysteresis, critical parameter values (tipping points), irreversible state changes. Based on a recycling model, we explain these phenomena and develop a simple, generic mathematical model describing the basic traits of acceptance dynamics. Analytical investigations and numerical experiments with this generic model show reproduction of the above mentioned phenomena. In addition, the generic model shows the interplay between internal and external forces. The relation of their time constants is shown to play a crucial role, leading to reversible elasticity dynamics or irreversible acceptance dynamics. Critical parameter values (tipping points) separating elasticity dynamics from acceptance dynamics can be deduced from the generic model. We show that some simplifications applied to the waste recycling model lead to the generic acceptance model. Further, the acceptance model is shown to comprise also the well-known Bass model to describe market diffusion of new products. Finally, we discuss benefits of the generic model, its possible extensions to include additional phenomena, and its research implications.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- In irrigation systems over-abstraction of water and/or neglected maintenance are common problems faced by their users. For a generalized system with head- and tail-users, which interact through water abstraction and maintenance, a feedback structure is presented. It builds on causal relationships derived from theoretical work on collective action and irrigation. The concept of the model can be looked upon as a general formulation of two mutually but asymmetrically dependent groups of users with regard to a common resource. Main objective of the study is to provide a systems framework allowing for a deeper understanding of the social and institutional nature of irrigation problems. It is embedded in transdisciplinary research in Kyrgyzstan and Kenya aimed at developing strategies for a sustainable future in semi-arid rural areas.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Virtual teams are fast becoming the norm in organizations and strategies are needed to deal with the new challenges that they create. Software Project Dynamics is a field of research that uses system dynamics simulation to explore software engineering issues. The objective of this research effort was to enhance systematically the understanding of virtual software engineering by using the system dynamics methodology and existing software project dynamic models. To accomplish the research objective, the following tasks were accomplished: First, an extensive literature review was done. Second, a Software Project Dynamics model was reproduced. Third, the model was used as an experimentation vehicle. This paper suggests that system dynamics is a viable tool in the exploration of virtual software engineering challenges. A new field of research is recommended to deal with additional challenges of virtual software project teams by using system dynamics with the proposed name: Virtual Software Project Dynamics.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Decision makers are often faced with insufficient and incomplete information, yet are forced to make decisions on this basis. The result may often be unintended consequences or situations where too few or too many resources have been allocated to solve the problem. Practicing decision making is often realised through live-exercises, which tend to be extremely expensive, or by using table-top games, providing a much lesser amount of realism to the game. MindLab allows for more sophisticated training arenas to a relatively low cost. The idea is to create a simulation model general enough to accommodate different decision making scenarios, accompanied by relatively rich user interfaces and an experiment setting that gives the game a high level of realism. This paper looks into how the MindLab architecture functions, as well as presenting two different simulation models with accompanied user interfaces that are currently being used with MindLab.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper focuses on the problem of rural energization in isolated regions in Colombia (Not interconnected zones NIS). Using the Sustainable Livelihood approach we assess the situation of the isolated communities before and after energization. Systems dynamics is used for simulating and evaluating energy policies. We apply our approach to the municipality of Jambaló in the Cauca department, Colombia.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper reports the results of a comparison of quantitative and qualitative approaches to systems analysis. The primary goal of the investigation was to test a heuristic for qualitative analysis previously proposed by the author that is intended to improve recognition of potential sources of failure for models used for forecasting. A series of papers published by John Sterman, George Richardson, and Pål Davidsen in the mid- to late-1980s examining resource estimation methods and the petroleum lifecycle were selected for analysis based on their completeness and perceived high quality of the models both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative results presented in those papers are compared to published data and some potential sources of deviation are identified. The paper then presents an analysis of the qualitative models contained in the papers, highlighting the differences in the nature of insights available from the qualitative and quantitative analyses and illustrating how this expanded logic for qualitative analysis may contribute to the formulation and bounding process for predictive system dynamic models.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This paper describes an interdisciplinary approach to computer modeling of large-scale power systems. System dynamics is used to represent the the feedback relationships which govern the long-term evolution of the system, while engineering methods are used to calculate the short-term prices and power flows in the transmission network. This approach has been implemented in a model of the WECC, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. The paper uses the WECC model to simulate the impact of the carbon allowances market envsioned by the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003. The simulations indicate that the western electricity system could achieve dramatic reductions in carbon emissions over the next two decades. The preliminary results indicate that the large reduction could be achieved with only half the increase in retail electricity rates that have been predicted for the nation as a whole.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Participatory environmental modeling is an adaptive management tool which natural resource managers, those dependent upon natural resources, property owners, and government agencies may use to help them understand the complexities of ecosystem management. Models have been used for sage-grouse, bear and fishery management, estuary systems and watersheds. These models share adaptive management theory, but differ on many other aspects such as the number of stakeholders and the degree to which they are involved. There can be many levels of involvement that are layered in a representative fashion with the modelers and intensely involved participants at the core. Varying physical, social and economic boundaries and the availability of data affect the time spent on different facets of the process. Finally, the intended use of the model may differ. Some processes are designed around group learning while others create tools which will assist with management decisions.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Differences regarding the liberalization of agricultural markets are a central issue in the current Doha-round of WTO negotiations. The positions of the individual countries and country groups differ significantly as far as market access is concerned. The positions can be explained by the existing levels of market support and thus by potential agricultural income losses as a consequence of market liberalization. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic impacts of different adjustment steps in market access and the resulting interactions between the agricultural markets. Adjustment steps can consist in an expansion of tariff quotas and in a reduction of import tariffs. Our simulations show that price development and thus the development of the revenue from agricultural products depend on several factors. In addition to domestic supply and demand the temporal design of market liberalisation is a key influencing factor.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- ABSTRACT This paper explores the topics of innovation dynamics and investment choices that exist in subsystem design architectures of complex product developments. A particular theme in the innovation literature is captured and extended. This refers to the process of knowledge development regarding technology intersections within product developments that can sustain product innovation. This is fulfilled in this research through a composition of analytical tools that are used to match the case study environment. In this regard a unique variety of modeling techniques are sequenced to complement the problems encountered and support the outcome of technical and economic decision criteria. The case study presented here is at the forefront of economic and environmental concern - the evolution of Hybrid ElectricVehicles, HEV, efficiency. This paper outlines an innovative and analytical decision approach that is at the core of HEV evolution.